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Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Pembrokeshire
16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why not simply say what it is?

It's a phrase to describe a more localised spell of zonality - with full zonal conditions never quite developing.

Edited by Jonathan Evans
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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
On 27/01/2017 at 18:52, Seasonality said:

Maybe western Europe. Still colder further east.

I'd say +5hpa getting into central Ukraine is about as east in Europe you can get

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Just a quick comment regarding the strat and those 10/30 hpa charts that have been posted in the Strat thread that look so impressive regarding a warming.

here

strat.JPG

The warming has been well forecast for at least a week or more now and the (near) SSW (probably now going to be defined as a minor warming rather than a major one, by the met office, because the winds at 60n don't quite reverse) is as we expected.

Yes a good warming up there, but not such a good result, a displacement of the vortex is the end result from the warming, and unfortunately the displacement does not look favourable if its a high lat block in our area you are after. A split in the strat vortex would be much more interesting, but alas that is not how the strat pattern is responding to the warming. 

This summary is based on the initial warming and there "might" be some more developments in the strat as we go forward, but the initial warming, that those impressive looking spiking charts at 10/30 that were posted in the strat thread indicated, are actually just showing the expected spike, which as described does not split or displace the vortex into a favourable position for subsequent down-welling.

If i post some charts for reference,

You can see that massive warming heading towards the pole,

ecmwf10f48.gif

Which is a major departure from what was there before

 

ecmwf10f24.gif

But the end result just displaces the vortex from the pole to the lower latitudes and as stated it is displaced southwards over north Europe, so if your looking for a direct correlation between the strat and the troph its not looking ideal!

 

ecmwf10f120.gif

We then get the second warming (wave 1, we really need to see a wave 2 injection to split things)

ecmwf10f168.gif

Which again results in a slightly displaced vortex, but nothing thats screaming a good troph (troposphere)  pattern if it was to down-well.

 

ecmwf10f240.gif

So in summary, even though we get a good strat warming the resulting stratospheric pattern in not looking that good for our region if a direct downwelling is to effect us and result in a colder pattern.

There is some argument that the displaced vortex may ease the canadian troph PV and perhaps could encourage a colder north west/north flow for us but we shall have to wait and see.

  

 

 

 

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM has a bit more potential earlier but flatlines later. We really want to see the PV lobe over Canada disconnected from the troughing near the UK and edged nw like the GFS output.

Overall an unsettled spell of weather coming up with troughing parked over the UK and heavier bands of rain moving in as shortwaves run east into the UK. A chance these could see something wintry on the northern flank depending on what the 850's look like closer to the time.

Some heavy showers wintry at times in the north so pretty standard winter fare.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
49 minutes ago, Jonathan Evans said:

It's a phrase to describe a more localised spell of zonality - with full zonal conditions never quite developing.

So in other words 'unsettled'.  No need for yet another buzz word to be invented.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM has a bit more potential earlier but flatlines later. We really want to see the PV lobe over Canada disconnected from the troughing near the UK and edged nw like the GFS output.

Overall an unsettled spell of weather coming up with troughing parked over the UK and heavier bands of rain moving in as shortwaves run east into the UK. A chance these could see something wintry on the northern flank depending on what the 850's look like closer to the time.

Some heavy showers wintry at times in the north so pretty standard winter fare.

 

 

Yes GFS showing signs of a weakened disconnected PV lobe over Canada as we move out of the first week of Feb, and this would definately encourage an injection of arctic/polar maritime air from a NW/N quarter as being hinted at in its long range output. So all eyes on the strength and position of the lobe over Canada in the coming days, a movement NW is needed to enable colder air to filter our way, and it is very plausible.

In the meantime, expect sudden short term developments, just as we have now, with a closed low feature crossing the south of the country, but crucially delaying the chance for milder uppers to invade the north, indeed it now looks like it will be Tuesday before the whole of the UK experiences a milder pattern, and in the north, very brief. Lots of snowfall for the scottish ski centres in the coming week which is good news.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

That is some temperature contrast tomorrow night on the 18z -9c in NE Scotland 

+10c in the SE of the UK

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: winter and summer
  • Location: Truro

Not a full on Atlantic here, yet another GFS run that suggests possible high pressure to our north and west with a stonking high pressure system setting up to our east could be be seeing signs of change already ...... let's see the low pressure dive deeper south and east.

IMG_0987.PNG

Edited by Argyle1980
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Well at least we are seeing improvements on each run from what we had a couple of days ago. 

gfsnh-0-384.png

gfsnh-1-384.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I know that these charts are right out in FI but if something favourable shows up for a couple of days on the GFS there is a chance that it could be brought forward a bit and other models might come on board. After all this SSW must be having some effect on the PV by the 2nd/3rd week of Feb, anyway we don't need the full split vortex to get some cold our way, just some northern block that sets up in a favourable place.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Well well a Scandy high from the ECM

IMG_4098.PNG

Quite a strong Easterly flow around Poland, should be strong enough to hold back the Atlantic...this high starts forming at 192 , still FI though so not so sure!!

 

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, TEITS said:

0Z ECM attempting to develop the near perfect E,ly.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.gif

I say near perfect because the high is descending from the Arctic. Reason I say near perfect is because the lobe of PV doesn't descend with the high i.e Jan 1987. Still if you want a bitterly cold E,ly with very real cold upper temps then the 0Z ECM is the way to go.

Only downside is I don't believe it after the winter of let downs so far/.

I understand your last line but the winter thus far will have no influence on the rest of the winter in terms of if it's a let down or not. Going to be some good fi runs moving forward I feel.

The ecm t240 is very interesting and if gfs picks this up in future runs but a bit flatter it would still be good imo. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well well a Scandy high from the ECM

IMG_4098.PNG

Just need to the Azores ridge to do one, what interests me about the appearance of the Scandi, even if it doesn't bring an easterly initially, is the increase in tropospheric wave number 2 forcing it will bring - which will help towards perhaps splitting the strat PV. Split of the PV much better than displacement for long term prospects of HLB and cold/snow prospects as we head through February.

Anyway, only one run and we'll see if the EPS z500 mean supports the idea later too.

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

So Matthew Hugo predicts half of Feb could be wet windy ,no sign of any cold ,right I, m off out of here ,the guy is very knowledgeable but we will have some very cold air to our far north driving this cyclonic wintry spell and if we get lucky we have a good chance of the white stuff ,right I, m back ,don't give up this cyclonic spell could bring us what we desire ,cheers gang .:yahoo:

Edited by legritter
Sorry but this post should have sent last evening ,cheers .
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

As a general overview we could see the first third of feb the most unsettled and mildest period of the month before the slowdown in zonal winds has an effect on the jet.

Edited by Matthew Wilson
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
31 minutes ago, Dennis said:

winter has some time to give a new round in Febr or March

5.gif

6.png

67.gif

Well said Dennis.

I need to say this so what if there's no reversal of the stratospheric warming and not to worry about the mjo because since November we had hard frost and some snowfall without a ssw without true high latitude blocking Europe has had a very very cold winter and we were just on the edge of it.

So my thinking is in the next 5 to 10 days the stratospheric warming combined with mjo and low solar activity we are likely to see a cold spell by mid Feb maybe sooner.

Minor warming major warming it's still completely better than last winter.

I expect eye candy in the next 5 to 10 days.

And them heights in Scandinavia have increased in strength since yesterday as there was signs last night of it strengthening today it's bigger and slightly stronger.

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Just need to the Azores ridge to do one, what interests me about the appearance of the Scandi, even if it doesn't bring an easterly initially, is the increase in tropospheric wave number 2 forcing it will bring - which will help towards perhaps splitting the strat PV. Split of the PV much better than displacement for long term prospects of HLB and cold/snow prospects as we head through February.

Anyway, only one run and we'll see if the EPS z500 mean supports the idea later too.

the ec op shows a split devloping in the mid strat by day 10 which I presume has its roots in the wave 2 type set up illustrated 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The early part of Feb is looking pretty wet according to UKMO

ukm2.2017020300.120.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.pngukm2.2017020400.144.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

UKMO extended

ukm2.2017020500.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

We might see the 1st named storm for over a month if one of those lows comes off

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
2 hours ago, That ECM said:

I understand your last line but the winter thus far will have no influence on the rest of the winter in terms of if it's a let down or not. Going to be some good fi runs moving forward I feel.

The ecm t240 is very interesting and if gfs picks this up in future runs but a bit flatter it would still be good imo. 

 

Reason why im not paying too much attention to the 0Z ECM at the moment is because of the lack of support from the other models. The key difference with the ECM is from +144 onwards when the high descends from the Arctic.

Also I noticed someone mentioned a Scandi HP. There is a massive difference between an E,ly that develops from a developing high pressure over Scandi, than a high pressure that descends S from the Arctic into Scandinavia. The latter tends to be much colder as it pulls much colder uppers from the Arctic.

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