January becoming less snowy

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another January passes by without bringing much in the way of widespread snowfall by the looks of it.

 

In the past the Januarys of 1947, 1952, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1958, 1960, 1963, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1986 and 1987 all produced more significant widespread snow events than any January since 1988 has (with the exception of 2010 and in many areas 2013).  The Januarys of 1951, 1953, 1959, 1962, 1970, 1972 and 1980 also produced snow events that would rival the best January snow events in the post 1988 era (2010 and 2013 apart).  I may have missed some other events since World War 2, but if I have, it underlines the decline even more sharply.

In the post 1988 era the Januarys of 1989, 1990, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012 and 2014 all passed by without a flake of snow falling in most parts of the country.  It appears that the trend of milder winters since 1988 has led to January mostly delivering hardly any snow - most of them being milder than average overall with any spells of colder weather mostly from high pressure over the UK, and proper cold synoptics have been increasingly rare in January ever since 1988.

[blitzen]

2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Another January passes by without bringing much in the way of widespread snowfall by the looks of it.

 

 

Good observation.    Commented on the Scottish thread about exactly the same thing.   January has not produced anything substantial (other than for the far north}  for years now.

Edited January 21, 2017 by Blitzen

[Snowyowl9]

January 1986 didn`t bring any snow to low ground around here.

January 2010 that was a whole different ball game twice as much here to jan 1986.

 

Edited January 21, 2017 by Snowyowl9

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

January 1986 didn`t bring any snow to low ground around here.

January 2010 that was a whole different ball game twice as much here to jan 1986.

 

In my list above I quoted with the exception of 2010, or 2010 and 2013 apart.

[reef]

Since 1988, exactly half (15 out of 30) of Januarys have seen no lying snow here. Most notably however, 8 of those 15 without lying snow have come since 2005. The mean snow lying days per January here between 1988 and 2017 is 1.8 days, but without 2010 (12 days) and 2013 (13 days) that figure drops to just 1.0 days per January.

For reference, the 1961-1990 average is 4.4 days. So essentially, snowfall now lays for 40% of the time it used too here in January

Days of sleet/snow falling has dropped equally as much. From around 8 days in the 1961-1990 period, to 3.6 days in 1988-2017.

None of this is exclusive to January, but its fall in snow lying days is more significant than other winter months. In the same period February has dropped from 3.5 days to 2.0 days snow lying. December has been pretty steady thanks to 2010, dropping from 2.3 days to 2.1 days. Though without 2010 it is only 1.4 days.

If this continues then snow will start becoming rare. We haven't had measurable snow since January 2013, so it makes you wonder if this is a glimpse into the future, where snow comes in lone years (like Jan 2010, Dec 2010, Jan 2013) in bulk, with nothing much for years in between events.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feb seems to be the month that's becoming less snowy here, Feb used to be the snowiest month of the year

[booferking]

Winter seems to become the most snowless season here.  And that anit a joke.

Edited January 21, 2017 by booferking

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Not just January, but I think winters in general are becoming more and more boring in a way. Nowadays winters mostly consist of dull, overcast and drizzly days. We haven't even had many storms so far this winter as it has been very high pressure dominated.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Alice1991 said:

Not just January, but I think winters in general are becoming more and more boring in a way. Nowadays winters mostly consist of dull, overcast and drizzly days. We haven't even had many storms so far this winter as it has been very high pressure dominated.

disagree with last bit, Generally our winters are getting wetter and windier since 2000 approx, this year not quite as bad for storms, but still had quite a bit of rain, and very little snow

[Terminal Moraine]

Here the mean number of days with sleet/snow falling and  snow lying at 0900 between 1978 and 1998 was 12.4 and 9.7 respectively. Compare that with the means from 1999-2016 which are 9.6 and 5.5 days respectively. If you take out the figures for 2010 and 2013 the means fall to 8.7 and 4.2 days. 

[Frost HoIIow]

Not just January, Winters overall are becoming less snowy. Here on in low ground we had some amazing snow events 25+ years ago. For some reason it just doesn't happen now. Bar exceptions like 2010 there has been a big change over the past 20 years.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Not just January, Winters overall are becoming less snowy. Here on in low ground we had some amazing snow events 25+ years ago. For some reason it just doesn't happen now. Bar exceptions like 2010 there has been a big change over the past 20 years.

I had some amazing events before 2000, infact most winters, now we just get occasional events

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Not just January, Winters overall are becoming less snowy. Here on in low ground we had some amazing snow events 25+ years ago. For some reason it just doesn't happen now. Bar exceptions like 2010 there has been a big change over the past 20 years.

They are indeed very sadly, there's no denying it.  Winters 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 were excellent for snow, but like you say, those appear to be the exceptions now.  The cold spells we do get now are are becoming increasingly wishy washy!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

They are indeed very sadly, there's no denying it.  Winters 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 were excellent for snow, but like you say, those appear to be the exceptions now.  The cold spells we do get now are are becoming increasingly wishy washy!

very wishy washy, shorter as well, even when Atlantic dosen't storm through, snow tends to thaw anyway, at low levels

[Don]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

very wishy washy, shorter as well, even when Atlantic dosen't storm through, snow tends to thaw anyway, at low levels

Agreed.  However, I am enjoying the current weather with frost persisting all day in the shade (something I have not seen for a long time).  It's not snowing but the next best thing and certainly better than some feeble attempt of a northerly!

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Though I agree I note in that list that there's a 9 year gap between 1968 and 1977. These we're also all January's post WWII. From what I can tell the 20th century pre WWII was with a few exceptions like 1916/17 pretty poor for snowy Winters, so I would imagine many or even most of those January's would also have been poor for snow. There was quite a pronounced trend in the frequency of colder and snowier Winters setting in during the 1940s up until (with the exception of a big bulk of the 1970s) the 1980s so it was clearly a cyclical phenomenon. We just have to hope the upcoming solar minimum does us some favours in returning a higher frequency of snow events which has been lacking since then.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Agreed.  However, I am enjoying the current weather with frost persisting all day in the shade (something I have not seen for a long time).  It's not snowing but the next best thing and certainly better than some feeble attempt of a northerly!

but my location hasn't, the only sunny day was yesterday, cloudy/drizzly mon to thurs, today and tomorrow

[North-Easterly Blast]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

They are indeed very sadly, there's no denying it.  Winters 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 were excellent for snow, but like you say, those appear to be the exceptions now.  The cold spells we do get now are are becoming increasingly wishy washy!

The winter of 2010-11 started with an exceptionally cold December, but once the cold abated and the snow melted after Christmas that year, it was never to return and actually after Xmas the 2010-11 didn't bring much in the way of cold spells - a few frosty spells here and there but that was it, with the February in particular being very disappointing.

Winter 2012-13 was also a good winter for cold spells and brought a number of snow events in many areas.  That year there was a good two week cold spell in the January, then Feb 2013 was predominantly cold though without any real major cold spells, then March 2013 brought a really cold month and some good snowfalls in a number of areas.

We have certainly not had anything that you could call a decent winter in the UK since 2012-13, and the last three winters and also this one so far have not brought much in the way of cold outbreaks.

[lukemc]

Yes I agree that the solar minimum could bring some colder Januaries - but my question is if snow is becoming rarer as a result of climate change then why did we get years like 2010 and 2013 in the first place - and even though this January has not been notable in the UK parts of coastal Spain have had their heaviest snowfall for nearly 100 years so in some respects that is a once in a lifetime event and it just proves that even with a warming climate extreme cold events are possible.  It is however ironic that parts of coastal Spain have had more snow this winter than us in the NW of England - I wonder how much does that happen? Snow in areas that are normally much milder than the UK in the winter lol.

 

Luke 

[ColdFront80]

I'm enjoying this January a lot sunny not much rain and the crunchy frosty ground. It's been fun and hopefully something we see more off in January's to come. I like snow but I'll take this.

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, ColdFront80 said:

I'm enjoying this January a lot sunny not much rain and the crunchy frosty ground. It's been fun and hopefully something we see more off in January's to come. I like snow but I'll take this.

While the rest of the country suffer from this week in week out 8c and gloomy nothingness no thanks you.

Edited January 21, 2017 by booferking

[chillyblast]

I've had to de-ice my car countless days this winter, consistent frost daily for a while, I am also enjoying this winter - the sunset today was spectacular and yesterday crystal clear blue skies.

Yes I miss snow but so far I think at least for me as I like to go out on the bike - the winter has been good, very little rain and plenty of sun shine / frost.

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I had some amazing events before 2000, infact most winters, now we just get occasional events

January of the 1990s were poor for snow overall. Even January 1996 was snowless until those last few days. January 1997 wasn't exactly a snowfest after New Year's Day. 

Getting excited over that one day in January 1998 that was localised, says it all!

Edited January 21, 2017 by Weather-history
.

[hillbilly]

You could just about say the same about the whole of the extended winter from October until May.Winter months have been very poor for 30 years with the exception of  about 4 winters.It is rare  now to get snow in October and November and similarly spring ,although spring has been better for snow in the last few years.

[Frost HoIIow]

Not had a heavy Winter snowfall (15cm/6 inches or more) since 21st January 2013. Just shows how poor it has been since then with just light or moderate falls.

Edited January 21, 2017 by Frost HoIIow