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February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I think I went for 5.5C...Living proof that reverse psychology disnae work!:wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    I was 4 degrees out...again! :oops::fool:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

    Yep likewise another well under estimated month.
    Over 2c out. :wallbash:

    Even me, the ultimate mild weather winter believer was 1° out! I thought a wetter month with southerly tracking lows, predicted a lot of rain, was certainly right last week of month!

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    Last month I did the scores early and waited days, this time I haven't started and it is out on time, typical.

    The scores will be updated over the next dew days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I win, I win, I win :yahoo: 6.2c :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    4 minutes ago, snowray said:

    I win, I win, I win :yahoo: 6.2c :D

     I thought it was confirmed as 6.1? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

     I thought it was confirmed as 6.1? 

    Ok 0.1 out, but closest so I win, everyone else was way out.:whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    9 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Ok 0.1 out, but closest so I win, everyone else was way out.:whistling:

    That's true :-)

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    After being just 0.2C out in January, I was a whopping 1.8C out for February!  Winter 2016/17, you were a complete let down!! :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    February 2017 notches up the 12th consecutive winter month with a mean CET over 3.5C

    Previous runs that lasted as long, measured at their end, were.....

    Feb 1916 ...the last of a run of 21 consecutive months
    Jan 1924....14
    Feb 1976....18
    Dec 2008....23

    Not much of a sample but the average continuance of such a run once it hits 12 is  7 more months. So, on average, we'd have to wait until Jan 2020 till the next mean CET under or equal to 3.5C  :sorry:

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    On 01/03/2017 at 12:49, Chris.R said:

    I was 4 degrees out...again! :oops::fool:

    I was 8.1 degrees out. Beat that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
    38 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    I was 8.1 degrees out. Beat that!

     Well I was 4 degrees out for 2 consecutive months so we're kind of equal. Lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    I am not going there with how wrong I was:closedeyes:

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    2 hours ago, Timmytour said:

    February 2017 notches up the 12th consecutive winter month with a mean CET over 3.5C

    Previous runs that lasted as long, measured at their end, were.....

    Feb 1916 ...the last of a run of 21 consecutive months
    Jan 1924....14
    Feb 1976....18
    Dec 2008....23

    Not much of a sample but the average continuance of such a run once it hits 12 is  7 more months. So, on average, we'd have to wait until Jan 2020 till the next mean CET under or equal to 3.5C  :sorry:

     

    OMG NO, you have got to be joking!!???:fool::wallbash:

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Update on the scoring for three non-human contestants:

    (note, set to 90% view to prevent line overflows)

     

    _________________ DECEMBER 2016 ___________  JANUARY 2017 ___________  FEBRUARY 2017

    FORECASTER _____ Fcsts _ Error _ Points (rank) ___ Fcsts _ Error _ Points (rank) __ Fcsts _ Errpr _ Points (rank)

    Normal 1981-2010 ___ 4.6 ___ -1.4 ___ 79.6 (21) ____4.4 ___ +0.4 __ 69.9 (29) _____ 4.4 ___ -1.7 ___ 56.1 (36)

    Normal 1987-2016 ___ 5,0 ___ -1.0 ___ 89.8 (11) ____ 4.6 ___ +0.6 __ 58.0 (40) _____ 4.8 ___ -1.3 ___ 67.4 (27)

    Consensus (median) _ 3.9 ___ -2.1 ___ 50.0 (50) ____ 3.9 ___ --0.1 __ 95.7 (5) ______ 4.3 ___ -1.8 ___ 52.4 (39)

    The points are now consistent with the scoring tables from J10. As explained earlier, ranks are equal to the first actual forecast submitted of equal error, in this case nobody but far-out LG went above by any similar error so for example no 7.8 forecast could have been submitted ahead of the first 4.4. Anyway, the rankings for the annual contest and seasonal (which will be identical as my assumption is to compare only against people who enter all months) will be possible when the scoring tables are posted. But for now, the average monthly stats are:

    Normal 1981-2010 __ mean abs error 1.17 ___ mean rank 29th

    Normal past 30 yr __ mean abs error 0.97 ___ mean rank 26th

    Consensus _______ mean abs error 1.33 ___ mean rank 31st

    I would expect the ranks to be slightly higher as not everybody enters all contests, probably about 3 to 5 ranks higher for the annual contest. This means essentially that 20 or so are ahead of these relatively random index values that can help us assess our skill levels. 

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    Results are now in.

    Monthly - Nobody got it spot on.

    snowray won being 0.1c out , with 3 players only 0.3 out, vizzy2004, syed2878 and backtrack.

    Seasonal The winner for Winter 2016/17 was davehsug with I remember Atlantic 252 in 2nd and chrisbell-nottheweatherman in 3rd.

    Overall  Very similar to the Seasonal comp with davehsug with AWD in 2nd, I remember Atlantic 252 in 3rd and chrisbell -nottheweatherman in 4th.

    Stats It looks as if later entries did worse, as they tended to be a little lower.

    PDF Feb 2017 CET.pdf

    Excel Feb 2017 CET.xlsx

     

     

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    2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Update on the scoring for three non-human contestants:

    (note, set to 90% view to prevent line overflows)

     

    _________________ DECEMBER 2016 ___________  JANUARY 2017 ___________  FEBRUARY 2017

    FORECASTER _____ Fcsts _ Error _ Points (rank) ___ Fcsts _ Error _ Points (rank) __ Fcsts _ Errpr _ Points (rank)

    Normal 1981-2010 ___ 4.6 ___ -1.4 ___ 79.6 (21) ____4.4 ___ +0.4 __ 69.9 (29) _____ 4.4 ___ -1.7 __ 55.0 (36)

    Normal 1987-2016 ___ 5,0 ___ -1.0 ___ 89.8 (11) ____ 4.6 ___ +0.6 __ 58.0 (40) _____ 4.8 ___ -1.3 ___ 66.0 (27)

    Consensus (median) _ 3.9 ___ -2.1 ___ 50.0 (50) ____ 3.9 ___ --0.1 __ 95.7 (5) ______ 4.3 ___ -1.8 ___ 51.2 (39)

    The points are approximate, will edit in the correct values from J10's tables when available. The ranks are already known from my table of entries but subject to change if the scoring tables have amendments. As explained earlier, ranks are equal to the first actual forecast submitted of equal error, in this case nobody but far-out LG went above by any similar error so for example no 7.8 forecast could have been submitted ahead of the first 4.4. Anyway, the rankings for the annual contest and seasonal (which will be identical as my assumption is to compare only against people who enter all months) will be possible when the scoring tables are posted. But for now, the average monthly stats are:

    Normal 1981-2010 __ mean abs error 1.17 ___ mean rank 29th

    Normal past 30 yr __ mean abs error 0.97 ___ mean rank 26th

    Consensus _______ mean abs error 1.33 ___ mean rank 31st

    I would expect the ranks to be slightly higher as not everybody enters all contests, probably about 3 to 5 ranks higher for the annual contest. This means essentially that 20 or so are ahead of these relatively random index values that can help us assess our skill levels. 

     

    Very good work there, I look forward to the update. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    21 minutes ago, J10 said:

    Results are now in.

    Monthly - Nobody got it spot on.

    snowray won being 0.1c out , with 3 players only 0.3 out, vizzy2004, syed2878 and backtrack.

    Seasonal The winner for Winter 2016/17 was davehsug with I remember Atlantic 252 in 2nd and chrisbell-nottheweatherman in 3rd.

    Overall  Very similar to the Seasonal comp with davehsug with AWD in 2nd, I remember Atlantic 252 in 3rd and chrisbell -nottheweatherman in 4th.

    Stats It looks as if later entries did worse, as they tended to be a little lower.

    PDF Feb 2017 CET.pdf

    Excel Feb 2017 CET.xlsx

     

     

    surprised at 2nd! helps being a mild believer, but still guessed Feb at 0.7 too low 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    6 hours ago, snowray said:

    OMG NO, you have got to be joking!!???:fool::wallbash:

    Wouldn't be surprised to be honest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    So, I corrected the points slightly for the three non-human markers (see my earlier post above) and this is the update on how they are doing in the annual contest, ranked against only those who have played all three months. That means the annual and winter seasonal rankings are the same for them.

    FORECASTER ________ TOTAL POINTS __ Rank ______ Average abs error __ Rank

    1981-2010 normal _________ 205.6 _______ 10th ___________ 1.17 ________ T-15th

    last 30 years average ______ 215.2 ________ 8th ____________ 0.97 ________ 8th

    Consensus (median) _______ 198.1 ________12th ___________ 1.33________ T-22nd

    What this tells us is that our consensus shows no skill (yet) vs recent normals, and that the best recent normal to use as a guide is the most recent 30 year average available, which beat the 1981-2010 average two times out of three so far. Consensus beat both in January alone.

    So if you're ahead of the best of these three, you're showing skill. Or better luck than most. :)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    No daily records but the 20th (10.7) would have broken both days on either side of it (and eight other dates in Feb); however, it failed to dislodge 11.3 from 1990. This is odd because in 2016, a reading of 10.4 on the 21st missed the record from 1813 (10.6) by 0.2 C. The record on the 19th is also 10.6, from 1893. The second half of the month was very mild (average 7.8, similar to the warmest Feb in 1779 when the whole month averaged 7.9). I haven't looked at the stats but would imagine that is in the top 10% of averages for Feb 15-28. 

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