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February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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I had a look at some data from the CET zone and compared a few days that were last reported, then took the missing data from 18th to today, average that I estimated was 7.5 to 8.0 for that period (10

CET extremes for February (1772-2016) and 1981-2010 means ____________________________________________________________ DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cu

5.8c please, expecting HLB but in the wrong position for a cold UK.

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 4.2C  just -0.1C below normal.

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  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    6°C here, 0.6°C above the MetO derived average.

    chart.thumb.png.e2d65d4a7dfdeef617739551a2e472d9.png

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  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Min today is 0.1C, while maxima look like reaching about 4C, so a drop to 4.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

    After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

    4.4C to the 12th (2.6: -2.1)
    4.4C to the 13th (5.0: +1.0)
    4.5C to the 14th (4.9: +1.5)
    4.6C to the 15th (6.9: +3.1)
    4.8C to the 16th (8.1: +4.4)
    5.0C to the 17th (8.3: +4.6)
    5.3C to the 18th (8.7: +4.9)
    5.5C to the 19th (10.0: +6.0) [Record High: 10.6C]
    5.7C to the 20th (10.2: +6.4)

    Looks like the 12th could be the low point for the month. Looking further ahead, the likely upper and lower ranges are now 5.7C and 3.2C but, as the graph shows, the average temperature after the 15th would be record breaking...

    MCPCNZM.png

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 3.7C -0.6C below normal. Another drop for today and then up up and away from Tuesday.

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  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Given the reduced number of days available and outlook to the 20th, it looks likely that Feb will end up a fairly mild month. 

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  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    22 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

    Given the reduced number of days available and outlook to the 20th, it looks likely that Feb will end up a fairly mild month. 

    Yes, it's looking odds on that February will be above average at this stage.

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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Tomorrow should be the last day of drops, could see some big rises after mid month as things warm up.

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  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    5.1°C (+0.4) here. 

    Mean min: 3.0°C (+0.9)

    Mean max: 7.5°C (+0.2) 

     I thought I might get below average but it's not to be. Minimums in particular have been higher than expected due to cloud. 


     

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  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    3.9c to the 11th here, 0.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Expecting a drop to average tomorrow, before a gradual rise this coming week.

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  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Quite likely to hit the low point in values tomorrow, then a steady climb upwards for the foreseeable. Highly unlikely to end up below average even if we see a marked colder period to end the month. A finish about a degree above norm very plausible, if not higher, but perhaps 25% chance we may end up between 0.5 and 1 degree above norm, if we see more pronounced colder conditions to end the month. Next week may see some chilly nights which could peg the CET back a little, conversely if the flow is more SW mild nights will occur.

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  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Someone likes their holidays :wallbash:too much. 

    Edited by Chris.R
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  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    As expected a drop down to 3.8c here today, bang on the 1981-2010 average.

    Rising from Wednesday onwards and with double digits being forecast can't see a chance of Feb finishing anything but above average now, but still a long way to go.

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  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Almost into double digits already today with the constant sun. Mean has risen to 5.2°C (+0.5)

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield down to 3.5C A slight rise tomorrow unless it's a cold night. Then up up up and more up and away.

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  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

    Met Office Hadley   Back with us...      4.5c.    Anomaly     0.4c.   Provisional to 13th.     Happy days...

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Still on 3.5C in Sunny Sheffield.

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  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    No change in Sunny Sheffield.

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  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    5.4°C (+0.7) here. 

    Mean min: 3.2°C (+1.1)

    Mean max: 7.9°C (+0.6)  

     An accelerating upward trend now especially after a max of 11.5°C today. 

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