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February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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I had a look at some data from the CET zone and compared a few days that were last reported, then took the missing data from 18th to today, average that I estimated was 7.5 to 8.0 for that period (10

CET extremes for February (1772-2016) and 1981-2010 means ____________________________________________________________ DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cu

5.8c please, expecting HLB but in the wrong position for a cold UK.

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Estimated figure

9.2c to the 2nd

5.1c above the 61 to 90 average

If so, 4.8 above 1981-2010 average. Summer Sun, I posted the 1981-2010 averages and records yesterday, scroll back you'll see it.

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13 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

If so, 4.8 above 1981-2010 average. Summer Sun, I posted the 1981-2010 averages and records yesterday, scroll back you'll see it.

Yep I'm just awaiting official figures before I start with the 81 to 10

Very unusual for Hadley to be offline this long

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Oh okay, well, somebody taking their holidays, I assume (a subordinate posting estimates). 

The 12z GFS looks considerably milder than some runs a day or two ago, would estimate 5.5 by end of 19th. Might be subjective bias there. :)

The Russian high makes some progress west but the frontal systems around Thursday of next week don't totally run out of Atlantic energy as shown earlier, now they continue to keep frontal boundaries east of Britain for the most part. I see a few colder days in the mix but also occasional mild intervals. 

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7.5°C (+2.8) here. 

Mean min: 5.4°C (+3.3)

Mean max: 10.1°C (+2.8)

 It's going to be difficult to get to below average. 

Edited by Chris.R
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CET is currently 7.5C
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2017

Min today is 0.1C while maxima look like reaching the mid 6s, so a drop to around 6.6C is likely on tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

6.0C to the 6th (2.6: -2.8)
5.8C to the 7th (5.1: +0.4)
5.5C to the 8th (3.1: -1.3)
4.9C to the 9th (0.1: -3.9)
4.5C to the 10th (1.2: -2.9)
4.2C to the 11th )1.1: -3.1)
3.9C to the 12th (0.5: -4.2)
3.6C to the 13th (0.4: -3.7)
3.4C to the 14th (0.1: -3.3)

Looking further ahead, the likely upper and lower CET ranges are 5.9C and 2.6C respectively.

GnkG94c.png

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2 hours ago, Chris.R said:

7.5°C (+2.8) here. 

Mean min: 5.4°C (+3.3)

Mean max: 10.1°C (+2.8)

 It's going to be difficult to get to below average

But not impossible or improbable  ^^^^

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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7 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

But not impossible or improbable  ^^^^

MIA

Looking at the models I could be below average by this time next week!

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Sunny Sheffield back up 5.1C a drop until say Monday then very mild conditions look likely soon after that so should rise very rapidly again.

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