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February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

     

    Table of entries posted here:

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=7

    As of 7:45 p.m. on the first, 80 entries (77 by deadline), median value 4.3 C. Late entries (accepted to end of 3 Feb, increasing time penalties) will be added as they appear.

    These values remain unclaimed (will edit this as we go forward)  

    In the mainstream zone (defined as 2.0 to 6.2), from high to low, you can still be alone with your thoughts at

    6.1, 6.0, 5.9, 2.9, 2.8, 2.7, 2.5, 2.2

    Outside that range, all but 10.0, 1.0, 0.7, -1.3 and -2.0 are open. So anything in the 6s above 6.2, or the 7s, or the 1s except for 1.0, can be yours alone. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    I had a look at some data from the CET zone and compared a few days that were last reported, then took the missing data from 18th to today, average that I estimated was 7.5 to 8.0 for that period (10

    CET extremes for February (1772-2016) and 1981-2010 means ____________________________________________________________ DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cu

    5.8c please, expecting HLB but in the wrong position for a cold UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    I refuse to be dull so it's 3.2*C from me please, for better or worse :shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    Can I add my guess at  4.0C please.

     

    MIA

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    3.6c for me please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Should I do a December and be influenced by the cold looking charts on offer.. oh well yes, will go with 3.4 degrees. A very mild start but shortlived, much colder second two thirds, possibly notably so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
    2 hours ago, Singularity said:

    I refuse to be dull so it's 3.2*C from me please, for better or worse :shok:

    Very tricky! But a dull 3.9 for me.:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

    A risk of a 'so near, yet so far' scenario when two of the stations are west and only one east - based on what has gone before, I'll opt for same figure as January as that seems to have been quite accurate.

    3,9C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    3.5C please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Sorry just realised I posted in the wrong thread.

    I'll have 2.4°C please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Just for fun; February so far here. 

     

    Mean min: 8.4°C (+6.3)

    Mean max: 11.5°C (+4.2)

    Mean: 9.8°C (+5.1)

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

     

    CET extremes for February (1772-2016) and 1981-2010 means

    ____________________________________________________________

    DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cumulative to date

    01 Feb ... 11.4 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4
    02 Feb ... 11.0 (1923) ... -6.5 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4
    03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... 4.5
    04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -5.0 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... 4.7
    05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.8

    06 Feb ... 10.3 (1866) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9
    07 Feb ... 10.5 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.9
    08 Feb ... 11.4 (1903) ... -8.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.8
    09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831) ... -8.8 (1816)*... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... *(1895 was -7.4)
    10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.2 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7

    11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.2 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... 4.6
    12 Feb ... 11.4 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6
    13 Feb ... 12.0 (1998) ... -7.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6
    14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.1 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... 4.5
    15 Feb ... 11.2 (1958) ... -8.0 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4

    16 Feb ... 10.0 (1928) ... -7.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4
    17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4
    18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3
    19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3
    20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3

    21 Feb ... 10.6 (1813) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 10.4 in 2016 almost
    22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3
    23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3
    24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3
    25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3

    26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3
    27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4
    28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4
    29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.4 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.4

    ___________________________________________________________

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Latest GFS would give a pretty mild first week (~5.7C), mainly thanks to the opening 3 days.

    After that, the potential cold spell would obviously change things around in a big way.The 12z GFS would have the CET dropping down to about 3.6C by the 12th, with the 5 days of the 8th to the 12th average just under 1C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    This seems a bit similar to Feb 2008, and after a few cold days it warmed up considerably mid-month. 

    Euro looks even colder than GFS, we may touch 2.0 on the way to whatever final resting place this month has in store.

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