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February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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I had a look at some data from the CET zone and compared a few days that were last reported, then took the missing data from 18th to today, average that I estimated was 7.5 to 8.0 for that period (10

CET extremes for February (1772-2016) and 1981-2010 means ____________________________________________________________ DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cu

5.8c please, expecting HLB but in the wrong position for a cold UK.

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I honesty dislike forecasting the winter months. Temps can shift on very subtle variations. Only a fool would look at the GEFS and go cold - only a brave man would look at the strat charts and go mild.

I'll hedge it - 4.2C please.

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56 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Expecting some form of blocking to redevelop late in month but possibly of the very mild variety. 

Oh dear, I hope not!

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On 1/19/2017 at 20:25, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yikes! these get earlier every month! 5.0° Atlantic mainly in control, southerlies, could be a wet month with high stuck to our east, and the Atlantic struggling to get through

Thoughts obviously the same as 19th Jan weatherwise, but upping it to 5.4°, lack of frosts/cold nights to bring it down

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Rest in pieces 'winter' 2016/2017!  10C  :(  Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C February in 2010.  Last sub 3.5C February in 2013.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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Below is the Febraury CET from 1659-2016 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

SKsVJjS.png

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 4.0C and 4.6C. The average February following Januarys in that range is 4.5C

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.29C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.4C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.14C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.2C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +2.49C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.0C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.50C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.2C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is -1.19C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.7C.

The current 30 year average of 4.88C is the mildest on record beating the record set the year earlier of 4.59. A CET of 5.8C or higher is needed for the 30 year average to reach 5.0C for the first time

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