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February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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I had a look at some data from the CET zone and compared a few days that were last reported, then took the missing data from 18th to today, average that I estimated was 7.5 to 8.0 for that period (10

CET extremes for February (1772-2016) and 1981-2010 means ____________________________________________________________ DATE .. MAX (year) ... ... MIN (year) ... ... ... 1981-2010 avg, and cu

5.8c please, expecting HLB but in the wrong position for a cold UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    I honesty dislike forecasting the winter months. Temps can shift on very subtle variations. Only a fool would look at the GEFS and go cold - only a brave man would look at the strat charts and go mild.

    I'll hedge it - 4.2C please.

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  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    6.2c please:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    34 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

    -1.3 please

    You said winter's over yesterday :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    56 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Expecting some form of blocking to redevelop late in month but possibly of the very mild variety. 

    Oh dear, I hope not!

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL

    4.7 please..

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I think I'll plump for 5.2C...If I'm as far out for Feb as I have been so far this winter, snow-lovers might be in for a treat!:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    On 1/19/2017 at 20:25, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Yikes! these get earlier every month! 5.0° Atlantic mainly in control, southerlies, could be a wet month with high stuck to our east, and the Atlantic struggling to get through

    Thoughts obviously the same as 19th Jan weatherwise, but upping it to 5.4°, lack of frosts/cold nights to bring it down

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  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom

    Rest in pieces 'winter' 2016/2017!  10C  :(  Last sub -1C, last sub 0C and last sub 1C February in 1986.  Last sub 2C February in 1991.  Last sub 3C February in 2010.  Last sub 3.5C February in 2013.

    Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I don't see anything to suggest anything other than a bog standard slightly milder than the average month

    5.2c

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    10 hours ago, crucible72 said:

    So far the highest prediction is 6.2C. There have been 7 February's warmer than this since 1990.

    I really wouldn't bet against it, looking at some of the ens right now

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  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Coldest month of the winter by a stretch. Opening 7-10 days above then a slippery slope down to marked cold including snow.

    2.3c 

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    Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

    4.7.c for me please

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Below is the Febraury CET from 1659-2016 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

    SKsVJjS.png

    The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 4.0C and 4.6C. The average February following Januarys in that range is 4.5C

    The linear trend for the whole record is +0.29C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.4C.
    The linear trend since 1850 is +0.14C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.2C.
    The linear trend since 1950 is +2.49C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.0C.
    The linear trend over the last 50 years is +3.50C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 5.2C.
    The linear trend over the last 30 years is -1.19C per century. Following this trend gives a February CET of 4.7C.

    The current 30 year average of 4.88C is the mildest on record beating the record set the year earlier of 4.59. A CET of 5.8C or higher is needed for the 30 year average to reach 5.0C for the first time

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