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Roger J Smith

February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

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CET averages and extremes for February

 

12.4 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

10.0 ... lowest daily extreme max (16th Feb 1928)

7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779
7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869
7.3 ... tied third warmest month of Feb 1990 and 1998

7.2 ... fifth warmest month of Feb 1794

6.4 ... 2011 CET (tied with six other years as 21st warmest)

6.2 ... 2014 CET (tied with 1877 as 32nd warmest)
 

4,9 ... 2016 CET

4.8 ... mean for 1987-2016
4.7 ... mean for 2001-2016 and also for 1986-2015
4.4 ... mean 1981-2010
4.2 ... mean for 1971-2000
4.0 ... mean for 1801-1900 and 1901-2000 and also for 2015

3.9 ... mean for 1659-2016 (all 358 years)
3.8 ... mean for 1961-1990 and 1701-1800 and also for 2012

3.2 ... 2013 CET

2.9 ... mean for 1659-1700

-1.1 ... fifth coldest month of Feb, coldest in recent years 1986
-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740
-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855
-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895
-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.4 ... highest daily extreme min (29th 1904)
-2.8 ... highest daily extreme min, not leap year day (27th, 1929)

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Tuesday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Friday 3rd February. Good luck!

Edited by Roger J Smith
updated mean for all years (no change, just forgot to add 2016).
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Yikes! these get earlier every month! 5.0° Atlantic mainly in control, southerlies, could be a wet month with high stuck to our east, and the Atlantic struggling to get through

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4.1°C

Thank you please!

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4.0 please.

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After a rather outlandish guess for January, I'll go with a rather more sane guess of 4.1, please.

Edited by LetItSnow!
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I'd love to see a cold February. However, I'm going to hazard a guess of 3.6c. I don't think it'll be relentlessly mild throughout, but I doubt that any wintry spells will be protracted enough to give a cold CET. I also have a feeling that it'll be colder towards the end.

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Not special for Feb, so a bog standard 4.9c  please

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1c bitter cold

Edited by weirpig
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Am banking on a 75 year wait for a February  CET between 0 and 1C to end this year. I'm going for 0.7C

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3.9. please

Edited by Dami
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5.8c please, expecting HLB but in the wrong position for a cold UK.

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Who knows? My guesstimate however will be a fence sitting 4.2, thanks

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Well since it's very hard to get a cold winter month after a very mild December I'm going for 5.1C

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5.1 please. Think feb will start of atlantic dominated then effects of SSW will begin to show their hand. 

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so far its been a winter of so close but so far. im going for 5.8c. thanks.

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