February 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[NorthYorksWeather]

7.9c to the 2nd, 4.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

Average temps expected over the coming few days with return of nighttime frosts.

[Summer Sun]

Estimated figure

9.2c to the 2nd

5.1c above the 61 to 90 average

[Roger J Smith]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Estimated figure

9.2c to the 2nd

5.1c above the 61 to 90 average

If so, 4.8 above 1981-2010 average. Summer Sun, I posted the 1981-2010 averages and records yesterday, scroll back you'll see it.

[Summer Sun]

13 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

If so, 4.8 above 1981-2010 average. Summer Sun, I posted the 1981-2010 averages and records yesterday, scroll back you'll see it.

Yep I'm just awaiting official figures before I start with the 81 to 10

Very unusual for Hadley to be offline this long

[Roger J Smith]

Oh okay, well, somebody taking their holidays, I assume (a subordinate posting estimates). 

The 12z GFS looks considerably milder than some runs a day or two ago, would estimate 5.5 by end of 19th. Might be subjective bias there.

The Russian high makes some progress west but the frontal systems around Thursday of next week don't totally run out of Atlantic energy as shown earlier, now they continue to keep frontal boundaries east of Britain for the most part. I see a few colder days in the mix but also occasional mild intervals. 

[Summer Sun]

Estimated figure

8.6 to the 3rd

4.3 above the 61 to 90 average

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.2c to the 4th, 2.4c above the 1981-2010.

Drops likely to continue into the coming week, wonder if we can get back to average?

[Summer Sun]

Estimated figure

7.4 to the 4th

3.1 above the 61 to 90 average

[Chris.R]

7.5°C (+2.8) here. 

Mean min: 5.4°C (+3.3)

Mean max: 10.1°C (+2.8)

 It's going to be difficult to get to below average. 

Edited February 5, 2017 by Chris.R

[BornFromTheVoid]

CET is currently 7.5C
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2017

Min today is 0.1C while maxima look like reaching the mid 6s, so a drop to around 6.6C is likely on tomorrows update.
After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

6.0C to the 6th (2.6: -2.8)
5.8C to the 7th (5.1: +0.4)
5.5C to the 8th (3.1: -1.3)
4.9C to the 9th (0.1: -3.9)
4.5C to the 10th (1.2: -2.9)
4.2C to the 11th )1.1: -3.1)
3.9C to the 12th (0.5: -4.2)
3.6C to the 13th (0.4: -3.7)
3.4C to the 14th (0.1: -3.3)

Looking further ahead, the likely upper and lower CET ranges are 5.9C and 2.6C respectively.

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, Chris.R said:

7.5°C (+2.8) here. 

Mean min: 5.4°C (+3.3)

Mean max: 10.1°C (+2.8)

 It's going to be difficult to get to below average. 

But not impossible or improbable  ^^^^

MIA

Edited February 5, 2017 by Midlands Ice Age

[NorthYorksWeather]

7 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

But not impossible or improbable  ^^^^

MIA

Looking at the models I could be below average by this time next week!

[Summer Sun]

Estimated figure

6.7 to the 5th

2.4 above the 61 to 90 average

 

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

4.7c here to the 6th, 0.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

The only was is down over the coming 5 days at least.

[Chris.R]

6.5°C (+1.8) here. 

Mean min: 4.3°C (+2.2)

Mean max: 9.1°C (+1.8)

Mean has dropped  1°C since my last report. 

[Summer Sun]

Estimated figure

5.9 to the 6th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 5C +0.7c degrees above normal. Should be a drop the next few days before normal temperatures return on Monday.

[Summer Sun]

Estimated figure

5.97 to the 7th

1.52 above the 61 to 90 average

[crucible72]

The page has now been updated to give the CET as 6.0 to the 7th, and 4.0 as a final figure for January

[Summer Sun]

6.0 to the 7th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[Chris.R]

Someone just took a 2 week holiday I reckon.  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back up 5.1C a drop until say Monday then very mild conditions look likely soon after that so should rise very rapidly again.

[Chris.R]

6.4°C (+1.7) here. 

Mean min: 4.1°C (+2.0)

Mean max: 9.0°C (+1.7) 

[NorthYorksWeather]

4.5c here to the 8th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

Looking at the models my next day with average or above mean is next Tuesday.