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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

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Well after last nights cloud, cold and fog are back.

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28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So as suggested recently ( & last week ) this looks like being a 3-4 week cold spell!! with the combined CET around 1c - 2c

The problem with the model thread is that most of the people, especially some of the ones that just forecast mild - they love the GFS & today just like Jan 13 the GFS is likely to be a spectacular fail -

Not wanting to argue with a much more experienced model follower than myself (and one whose analysis I respect), but doesn't the ECM consistently overestimate the strength of blocking and the latitudinal extent of ridging in much the same was as the GFS sends the jet through in low res, Steve?

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Interesting, some quite high upper temps there, and yet the continental airflow is producing 2m temps and dew points below freezing. I take it that the snow grains and flurries that might turn up tomorrow night are of the faux snow variety?  :cc_confused::)

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1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Not wanting to argue with a much more experienced model follower than myself (and one whose analysis I respect), but doesn't the ECM consistently overestimate the strength of blocking and the latitudinal extent of ridging in much the same was as the GFS sends the jet through in low res, Steve?

Usually only post 144 - more so 168-

we are looking at evolving change @120- if you look how the flow is at 144 is could be a tad OTT with the easterly, however its the undercutting theme thats the most important...

This is somewhat different to the other weeks non easterly where the ECM was bang on with the heights to the North, just poor to the SE

when you get this potential scenario the altantic has nowhere to go so just piles up low pressure to the SW ...

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

Usually only post 144 - more so 168-

we are looking at evolving change @120- if you look how the flow is at 144 is could be a tad OTT with the easterly, however its the undercutting theme thats the most important...

This is somewhat different to the other weeks non easterly where the ECM was bang on with the heights to the North, just poor to the SE

when you get this potential scenario the altantic has nowhere to go so just piles up low pressure to the SW ...

Cheers Steve. 

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1 hour ago, snowray said:

Interesting, some quite high upper temps there, and yet the continental airflow is producing 2m temps and dew points below freezing. I take it that the snow grains and flurries that might turn up tomorrow night are of the faux snow variety?  :cc_confused::)

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No chance of snow I'm totally bemused by the pinks from the E4 freezing rain perhaps must be 2 weeks on the trot for frosts here mightily impressive.

2.6c currently seeing obs elsewhere there's so much variation it's intriguing. 

Edited by Daniel*

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28 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No chance of snow I'm totally bemused by the pinks from the E4 freezing rain perhaps must be 2 weeks on the trot for frosts here mightily impressive.

2.6c currently seeing obs elsewhere there's so much variation it's intriguing. 

BBC forecast for week ahead , john Hammond was saying snow flurries 

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58 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

BBC forecast for week ahead , john Hammond was saying snow flurries 

The week ahead is that for this Thursday? 

Hmm okay but that 'mild' air aloft +3c uppers unless it changes. I think 850hpa temp of 0c is the absolute minimum needed for *snow* with a easterly type flow and then you're lucky. Most of the parameters are there to but the fundamental cold upper air is missing. It does not support anything wintry falling out the sky, I'll believe it when I see it.

Meanwhile it's turned frosty 1.5c with clear skies.

Edited by Daniel*

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Don't think I have ever seen fog this thick in my life.. I can't see the other side of the road.. Visibility less than 10m Absoultey insane.. It looks like a ice rink outside 

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6 hours ago, Daniel* said:

The week ahead is that for this Thursday? 

Hmm okay but that 'mild' air aloft +3c uppers unless it changes. I think 850hpa temp of 0c is the absolute minimum needed for *snow* with a easterly type flow and then you're lucky. Most of the parameters are there to but the fundamental cold upper air is missing. It does not support anything wintry falling out the sky, I'll believe it when I see it.

Meanwhile it's turned frosty 1.5c with clear skies.

There is the risk of very light snow later today and tonight, the 850hPa temperatures will not be that important as this is well above the level of where the precipitation will form (The cloud will be very low based). So dew point will be the best guide with sub-zero dew points offering a high chance of snow falling. 

Today looks like a very raw day with fog lifting into low cloud and sticking around, not helped by us importing the fog/low cloud from France as well. The cloud should clear during tomorrow when we finally import some drier air. Tomorrow looks very cold with the metoffice forecasting a high of 1C up here in the Fens.

Saying that the Arpege suggests today isn't looking that warm either

arpegeuk-41-14-0.png?25-05   arpegeuk-41-38-0.png?25-05

1-4C today, possibly colder tomorrow despite some sunshine.

 

Further ahead, next week looks very tough, the question at the moment is whether the ECM has the right solution or is simply over-reacting to background signals. Not sure, especially with an underwhelming UKMO output this morning.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Jesus's christ there is ice on everything it almost looks like we had freezing rain overnight!!! Nuts weather 

Edited by Surrey

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0.4c here and are first thick fog of this foggy spell. Grass is all frozen 

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Just rung my council emergency number going fk mental!!!! 

There is a road near me that is off a main road and someone has come off the road through a fence and smashed into a tree. Sheet ice all the way down. 

It's pitch black with the fog and when we stopped to see if everyone was okay the van completely locked out and we spoke with the lady on scene it was her daughter emergency services on the way. 

The council are dispatching a gritter there as I type. 

Be bloody careful out everyone!!! 

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Got lucky here, didn't get cold enough to turn the damp ground icy.over night low of 0.8 which was at 8:15 still that temp now.

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Might still get that ice soon, temp dropping here now 0.6

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Morning All, a cold start in SE London, the pavements were glistening with frost and cars very white; no fog though. coming into work there was still a frost in St James' Park and slight mist. Tomorrow looking a raw day with significant wind chill. I love walking my dog in all types of weather all year long, but i am now starting to yearn for the lighter evenings to arrive. can still be cold and frosty and foggy, but lighter in the evening would be nicer too. really slim chance of precipitation over next few days.

Observations

Observed at 09:00, Wednesday 25 January

1°C 34°F

Wind Speed 5 km/h 3 mph Easterly

Humidity: 100%

Visibility: Very Poor

Pressure: 1029mb, Rising

Observation station: London

(Lat: 51.517 | Lon: -0.1)

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Go out thinking it's just damp from the FOG and omg, it's so icy. And when I say FOG, I mean the stuff I can remember rolling off the sea when I was living near the coast. Real, almost can't see your hand kind of fog. Couldn't see the school from the top of the road. people slipping all over the place.

Nasty as...

 

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Met office got the ice warnings right for sure, ice that you can not see at all because its so fine.

Min temp here last night was -3.2c at 1.00 am and a surprising -6.0c on the grass.

Models still not sure about how this cold will end or not end..............

Anyone else on wind watch with the gfs, consistently showing a period of strong winds

Edited by mickeyb44

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