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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->


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It's settling now 

I think snow chances this evening for most of us that live at low-levels will depend very much on how quickly the colder and drier arctic air undercuts the rain from the NW - which will relate to how

I've only just realised what a bunch of nutters we all are lol. All this drama for a 'bit' of snow .... I've spent hours if not days n days watching all this unfold .....Now all I'm left with is about

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Several CM of snow possible quite widely I sense more than what the Arome is currently portraying in places e.g. Kent a couple of inches for the hills potentially. 

IMG_1856.thumb.JPG.3d351f8f2032d0ff1ec6be8dd60b67b1.JPGIMG_1857.thumb.JPG.e3066f0445f1a4411f84954533bdc97f.JPG

BBC weather 'Yorkshire' did a Facebook live cast for the upcoming event on Saturday. Very underwhelming. Basically, although cold, there just isn't enough flow to either ''pep-up'' the showers or drive them enough inland to get any noticeable accumulations. The occlusion on Saturday is complex as there is ''less cold'' air behind it which will spread across England through the day. Low levels right across the country will have little chance of snow come lunchtime onwards on Saturday as temps could rise to 3-5C. Main focus of the Met office's attention is the *potential* for modest falls at elevation (200+m) over the Pennines, York and Staff Moors and hills to the NE and possibly the Lincs wolds. He stated there could be 2-5cm over 250m dusting below that. Not concerned for SE or Midlands. Wintry mix here with some wet snow to higher ground, but unlikely to settle. 

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4 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Pull your head out the oven, you might feel the cold then ;)

Feels cold to me tbh!

Felt much colder weather than this damp squib, really isn't that cold:oops:

Edited by lassie23
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1 hour ago, shetland islands said:

BBC weather 'Yorkshire' did a Facebook live cast for the upcoming event on Saturday. Very underwhelming. Basically, although cold, there just isn't enough flow to either ''pep-up'' the showers or drive them enough inland to get any noticeable accumulations. The occlusion on Saturday is complex as there is ''less cold'' air behind it which will spread across England through the day. Low levels right across the country will have little chance of snow come lunchtime onwards on Saturday as temps could rise to 3-5C. Main focus of the Met office's attention is the *potential* for modest falls at elevation (200+m) over the Pennines, York and Staff Moors and hills to the NE and possibly the Lincs wolds. He stated there could be 2-5cm over 250m dusting below that. Not concerned for SE or Midlands. Wintry mix here with some wet snow to higher ground, but unlikely to settle. 

That Paul Hudson chap presumably? I disagree with their assessment.

Tonight Leeds has seen a light covering in far less better circumstances. He is known to downplay anything with snow. What's highlighted is definitely not true, it looks optimum for snowfall later on Friday through most of Saturday well that takes us to 1200 at least. Certainly not powder snow but all the same if it reaches 5C on Saturday I would be absolutely lost for words, time to find a new hobby! The fax shows no such occlusion. The less cold air is certainly still cold between -7C to -8C at 850hpa from -10C which briefly makes an appearance in the early hours - with a NE flow veering east through the day - the dew points are good throughout. I'm quite dumbfounded, why marginality is even a thing for Saturday.

In 'yesteryear' this wasn't a thing

 I still feel some folk in here will be surprised. Ian F tweeted about the SE...

Welcome Donna to the SE thread/forum :) 

Edited by Daniel*
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11 hours ago, Rob Deacon said:

Ha yeah it is a bit mad isn't it :)

 Haywards Heath to Nordkapp and back, crossing Dover to Calais is only part i'm not driving. Last time I did this route it worked out 5000 miles round trip (done in 10 nights!)

but as i'm taking my Mrs and 3 kids this time I thought I would make it a bit more relaxing and do it in 20 nights, plus the kids will be flying back with the Mrs from Norway so not to miss out on as much school time. One things for sure we will see some snow! and have some cool memories hopefully. 

 With x3 kids I would suggest iPads or DVD machines, last thing you will want is the age old 'are we there yet' continuously sounding off.

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6 hours ago, Daniel* said:

That Paul Hudson chap presumably? I disagree with their assessment.

Tonight Leeds has seen a light covering in far less better circumstances. He is known to downplay anything with snow. What's highlighted is definitely not true, it looks optimum for snowfall later on Friday through most of Saturday well that takes us to 1200 at least. Certainly not powder snow but all the same if it reaches 5C on Saturday I would be absolutely lost for words, time to find a new hobby! The fax shows no such occlusion. The less cold air is certainly still cold between -7C to -8C at 850hpa from -10C which briefly makes an appearance in the early hours - with a NE flow veering east through the day - the dew points are good throughout. I'm quite dumbfounded, why marginality is even a thing for Saturday.

In 'yesteryear' this wasn't a thing

 I still feel some folk in here will be surprised. Ian F tweeted about the SE...

Welcome Donna to the SE thread/forum :) 

I agree with you Daniel. The models have been consistently showing for a couple of days that our best chance of seeing some snow falling and settling would be Friday evening through to Saturday morning. And this morning the Beeb/Met Office finally are showing some graphics that agree with the model output I'm looking at - a band of snow moves in late Friday evening and progresses west across the Region. It's not going to be anything like the amount of snow many of us would like, but if I wake up to a dusting of 1 to 3 cms tomorrow it will put a smile on my face! :)

With regard temps for Saturday afternoon/evening, Arpege doesn't see the milder air moving in until late evening, raising temps to 4C right on the east coast, whilst the Beeb/Met Office show 5C widely for the afternoon. We'll wait with interest to see which is correct on this one!

So here's a comparison between what Arpege says for Fri evening 22.00, Sat 00.00 and Sat 04.00 and the Beeb/Met Office graphics - near enough identical?

589d71b9dccaa_ArpegePrecipFri10Feb22_00.thumb.png.9195546df983c24014a62ea4b2a1a7f6.png589d71ca84794_ArpegePrecipSat11Feb00_00.thumb.png.8c77eb2b64750c1c72e7f2cdfdd640e7.png589d71ddcf862_ArpegePrecipSat11Feb04_00.thumb.png.e7ef9e37f040d194b7cb97a138323ed1.png

589d71f3d75c0_BeebFri22_00.thumb.jpg.1741a727c265e504c5cc582c7a322d2f.jpg589d71ff39f9b_BeebSat00_00.thumb.jpg.37413ce17c055adc81bc422083f24b2b.jpg589d720ab291c_BeebSat04_00.thumb.jpg.debd322d40579930f64b3e9999d60ee7.jpg

Dew Points are marginal Friday evening, but the whole Region is below 0C by midnight - so favourable conditions overnight. Happy snow hunting!

589d732a696aa_ArpegeDPFri10Feb22_00.thumb.png.27914f25ef384f380eda78526a1b636f.png589d733e5ec5a_ArpegeDPSat11Feb00_00.thumb.png.0bcc05b68956a4c4bbb8e71995bfc8f1.png589d734ae41e3_ArpegeDPSat11Feb04_00.thumb.png.ef29ef44375aad37c63a146b7b54d1fc.png

 

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The precip above Norfolk right now is going west/southwest and building on the bottom. Could bring some people quite a nice dusting of snow across North and Western regions at the least. More to come that people weren't expecting until this evening?

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