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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk

My best streamer chance would be of the North Coast tip of The Netherlands and curling down on a ENE, 2010 kept one going for hours, sadly probably not for me this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
2 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

What are the chances of that evolving Daniel?

Anything is possible but highly unlikely to that extent. 

GFS precip charts are useless. Stick with High res, Hirlam etc... 

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Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Barling, Essex

Still chasing the charts at 144 and beyond in the mod forum. could be July and some of them would still be looking for an easterly to bring snow.......just give up guys ! lol.  Hopefully this weekend we might see a little something white falling from the sky......

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
33 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

What are the chances of that evolving Daniel?

GFS has been quite bullish on this showers off North Sea going well inland merging into longer spells of snow in places across the country. We see a more unstable atmospheric makeup on that day - with quite a lot of moisture available to be tapped into across our region. In my personal opinion I  think most if not all will see some snow falling a very good chance. A winter wonderland well that's unlikely but you never know... :p:good:

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
Just now, Essexgooner said:

Still chasing the charts at 144 and beyond in the mod forum. could be July and some of them would still be looking for an easterly to bring snow.......just give up guys ! lol.  Hopefully this weekend we might see a little something white falling from the sky......

Just seen that look at this 17th 18th. Then weekend be like look at this 22nd 23rd 10 days from now.

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Posted
  • Location: Barling, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Storms
  • Location: Barling, Essex
Just now, pegg24 said:

Just seen that look at this 17th 18th. Then weekend be like look at this 22nd 23rd 10 days from now.

haha, been the same pattern since December, just not going to happen this winter im afraid :(

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Well we did see a little sunshine here for a time today, otherwise grey skies with a little drizzle.

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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,

We're not still chasing snow are we this evening? I'm more looking forward to possible 13-15c next week so many tears in the model thread haha love it....

Edited by slater
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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
5 minutes ago, slater said:

We're not still chasing snow are we this evening? I'm more looking forward to possible 13-15c next week so many tears in the model thread haha love it....

I was in there too.. Didn't see many people crying :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

High res NMM gives a Kent Streamer. 

image.thumb.png.41b2a1bc61f3868c731235c1f1b1a8bc.pngimage.thumb.png.9dc779bb3bc57aaa323e8e4096035fd5.png

 

Some heavier snowfalls in the next few days wouldn't surprise me at all before temps recover to 6-8 degrees for a few days next week. Looking likely now that spring will be put on hold for a few weeks after the milder blip. 

Edited by shotski
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Posted
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth, sun, blue sky, and the odd bit of snow on a weekend would do nicely
  • Location: Attleborough Norfolk,
9 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

I was in there too.. Didn't see many people crying :cc_confused:

Sorry this was lunch time, always a tear fest that time of day !

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Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
37 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

High res NMM gives a Kent Streamer. 

image.thumb.png.41b2a1bc61f3868c731235c1f1b1a8bc.pngimage.thumb.png.9dc779bb3bc57aaa323e8e4096035fd5.png

 

Arpege also suggesting that showers will form into lines coming into our Region on the ENE wind, starting Friday evening and continuing right through Saturday. So the combination of 850hPa temperatures around -7C and North Sea SST's around +7C enough to generate some convection and light precipitation.

Fri 23.00589b6d3792450_Arpege12z08FebPrecipfor10Feb23_00.thumb.png.800332b150218a1429daec854facb9f8.png Sat 10.00589b6e03e2c46_Arpege12z08FebPrecipfor11Feb10_00.thumb.png.938f39a4dde46be643306af2358d35f3.png Sat 22.00589b6e207db6e_Arpege12z08FebPrecipfor11Feb22_00.thumb.png.7d82f17d2fc90f0e710ae27baf5df0d7.png

This evening's GFS and Arpege 12z output both show that all the prerequisites (850, DP and 2m temps) for snow later Friday and into early Saturday are favourable. But both models go on to show 2m temps rising a couple of degress above 0C as Saturday progresses, particularly near coasts, so I believe our best opportunity for seeing a dusting of snow settle is overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, when temps will be at their lowest.

Snow accumulation at 07.00 Saturday:

Arpege 589b776651f7e_Arpege0z08FebSnowAccumfor11Feb07_00.thumb.png.91f07fcf9d826619e1101b9ad71eab74.png GFS 589b778ed7962_GFS12z08FebSnowAccumforSat11Feb07_00.thumb.GIF.dd44175ac4eb3261f05681eaf10f6ba6.GIF

 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
4 minutes ago, slater said:

Sorry this was lunch time, always a tear fest that time of day !

Ha ha..! When the models don't live up to their expectations they spit out their dummies.. It's been going on since I joined up and it's always the same culprits. :)

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

A wash and Thames streamer scenario setting up possibly then! I'll have that :D

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire

Yes, Louise Lear on this evening BBC 1 TV forecast mentioned temps recovering to around 5C Saturday and 6-7C Sunday 

Best chance (although slim) Friday night to see a few flakes. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
8 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Yes, Louise Lear on this evening BBC 1 TV forecast mentioned temps recovering to around 5C Saturday and 6-7C Sunday 

Best chance (although slim) Friday night to see a few flakes. 

First temperatures were supposed to recover on Monday, then Sunday and now Saturday!  This so called upcoming cold snap really is a dead loss.  Hardly worth even mentioning!

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
27 minutes ago, Don said:

First temperatures were supposed to recover on Monday, then Sunday and now Saturday!  This so called upcoming cold snap really is a dead loss.  Hardly worth even mentioning!

Agreed. 

Today is now Saturday afternoon

Yesterday was next Monday

Monday was next Wednesday 

Roll on spring and the longer days. Thank god I had my snow fix in Montreal a couple weeks back. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

Agreed. 

Today is now Saturday afternoon

Yesterday was next Monday

Monday was next Wednesday 

Roll on spring and the longer days. Thank god I had my snow fix in Montreal a couple weeks back. 

 

Seriously thinking about having a winter holiday abroad next year to get my snow fix!

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Just had some drizzle with the temperature at 2c. 

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