SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

[VillagePlank]

There's a tantalizing hint of a streamer in the Midlands, come Saturday: perhaps that's just a little too far off to be confident with such a fine detail though: be nice if it corrects, say, 150 miles further south

[VillagePlank]

The precipitation simply stays out on the North Sea.

Here's the accumulated values (in mm) but if your read it x10 (so as cm) this is how much snow you can expect to be possibly be around your location by the end of Sunday

Edited February 7, 2017 by VillagePlank

[Hotspur62]

Reached 10.5 degrees here today and was very pleasant working outside.Almost felt Springlike but seems it is all downhill from here with temps taking a tumble and down to 1 degree by Friday with possible snow flurries in a bitter wind.Oh joy for those of us who work outside!!!!

[Blessed Weather]

For those of us who love some wintry weather it will be interesting to track model forecasts over the coming days as we head towards a cold blast from the east and hopefully a little snow falling.

So to start, a look at this evening's GFS 12z. This suggests early Saturday morning may be our best chance over the next 5 days of seeing a dusting of settling snow. It's a tick in the box for most prerequisites for snow, including 850 hpa temps at -8C, dew points at 0C or below and 2m ground temps close to 0C except coastal fringes. Respective charts for 07.00:

And with precipitation moving in off the North Sea, charts show light snow for many in our Region, giving a dusting of up to 1 cm. It's not a lot, but better than nothing?

[Ben Lewis]

Thomasz Schaffernaker with a dose of reality just now on BBC 1 TV national weather at 22:30

"Just a cold snap" 

"wintry flurries for northern England extending into the midlands at times over the weekend"

[Don]

The latest BBC forecast was very uninspiring and seemed to tone down the cold spell to a snap.  At this rate it will be over before it's started!

EDIT - Beaten to it!

Edited February 7, 2017 by Don

[Kent Blizzard]

Touch of Deja Vu from these Beeb forecasters then! ....time will tell, I'm not worried about it being a snap one little but, if we see any kind of accumalative snow it'll be a bonus after the last few years.

Plenty of frosts so far, one snowfall and potentially another snowy spell this Winter...can't complain!

Edited February 7, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Ben Lewis]

11 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Touch of Deja Vu from these Been forecasters then! ....time will tell, I'm not worried about it being a snap one little but, if we see any kind of accumalative snow it'll be a bonus after the last few years.

Plenty of frosts so far, one snowfall and potentially another snowy spell this Winter...can't co plain!

God I wish I shared your enthusiasm. 

Yeah it's been frosty this winter but in terms of snow it's been cr*p. 

Of course if dry cold frosty weather floats your boat then clearly this winter will please. 

Cant complain? You are well a truly a blinded snow starved Brit if you think this winter warrants a 'satisfied' outcome. 

Mind you at least we haven't to endure endless Atlantic dross with floods - that's worthy of a non complaint - not some pathetic 1cm wet snowfall 

 

Edited February 7, 2017 by Ben Lewis

[Kent Blizzard]

You need to calm down Ben before you require a nappy change.

We've had plenty of good winter weather, the blinkered look only at snow 

[lottiekent]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

 

Potential Kent or Thames streamer there!

[Ben Lewis]

12 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

You need to calm down Ben before you require a nappy change.

We've had plenty of good winter weather, the blinkered look only at snow 

Our versions of good winters are clearly different. 

its nothing to do with blinkered.. I'm sorry I don't wet my knickers because of frost and chilly by day, I'm here as a winter weather enthusiast because of snow. 

In my eyes, frost and cold does not make a memorable winter... Snow does - i.e; 2009, 2010 & 2013 - that's why I'm here, that's why I view model charts everyday - hoping for a snowy spell. 

But your happy with this winter and good for you, I was just merely saying I wished I shared your enthusiasm over frost! 

[Kent Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Our versions of good winters are clearly different. 

its nothing to do with blinkered.. I'm sorry I don't wet my knickers because of frost and chilly by day, I'm here as a winter weather enthusiast because of snow. 

In my eyes, frost and cold does not make a memorable winter... Snow does - i.e; 2009, 2010 & 2013 - that's why I'm here, that's why I view model charts everyday - hoping for a snowy spell. 

But your happy with this winter and good for you, I was just merely saying I wished I shared your enthusiasm over frost! 

What about the below average temps this Winter? We've done well!

Events like 2010 for example are very rare and anyone banking on similar each winter are deluded.

This Winter is a good 7 out of 10 for me, lots of frosts and cold temps,  better than plenty of previous years.  If we had/get more snow events then my score would rise.

Note: excuse any weird typos, its this stupid auto type thing on my tablet!

 

 

Edited February 7, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[Ben Lewis]

11 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

What about the below average temps this Winter? We've done well!

Events like 2010 for example are very rare and anyone banking on similar each winter are deluded.

This Winter is a good 7 out of 10 for me, lots of frosts and cold temps,  better than plenty of previous years.  If we had/get more snow events then my score would rise.

 

 

2010 maybe. But certainly not 2009 or 2013 and the decent snowfalls we had in early 2012 = would take a miracle to even achieve half of what those winters delivered in terms of snow. 

We'll have to agree to disagree..

If what you class a good winter is: below average temps but dry = then this one is for you! 

If what you class a good winter is: based on snowfall..... The long wait continues 

 

Edited February 8, 2017 by Ben Lewis

[Kent Blizzard]

I think well have to Ben. 

It's like a week of mid 20s in Summer not enough for those that want 30+ or a gale event that doesn't rip roofs off and down trees left right and centre.

Don't get me wrong I love snowfall & especially a Kent Blizzard  but I also appreciate the other Colder Winter Conditions.

Another two cold snaps before this winter is over IMO, one starts tomoz!....enjoy the ride.

 

Edited February 8, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[SMU]

Ive enjoyed this past few weeks for the string of deep frosts & frozen lakes- culminating in an ice day the other Thurs-

Looking forward to the weekend- I bet somewhere like bluebell/wrotham/Meopham will end up with a few CMs fri/Sat...

S

[huntso]

Cloudy with drizzle, temp 3.7c at 06.30

[Ben Lewis]

Hoping to at least see a flake over the weekend but won't hold my breath. 

The latest ECM joining the GFS horror show having us in mild air by mid next week. 

They certainly don't make easterlies like they used to........ 

[Lampostwatcher]

cold spell not far away now snow for many looking at gfs

[snowsummer]

Good morning everyone! Now. Having spent 3 years of my life reading EVERY SINGLE comment/chart/moan/ramp over on the mod thread, i just wondered if i jump ship, would you all accept me on here  please? I wasted many a good day getting out enjoying the weather we had whilst constantly looking to see what was offered next. Ive put on 2 stone through sitting in an armchair, and developed insomnia  through the 'green light' on my phone!!! Some fantastic posters on that thread, but honestly, i cant do the rollercoaster anymore.

[Kent Blizzard]

Morning all Fog has rolled in the last half hour!

Steve I'm a stones throw away from Bluebell Hill so hopefully

A good few days of radar watching coming up, won't be wasting time looking for the breakdowns next week, a week is FI and if it's showing mid teens then bring it on, I'll swap my trousers for shorts

Edited February 8, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[MAF]

Morning All. An overcast morning with thick cloud shrouding the top of the Shard. temps are actually at the highest this moring before they drop this afternoon/evening.

Observations

Observed at 07:00, Wednesday 8 February

5°C 41°F

Wind Speed 8 km/h 5 mph North Westerly

Humidity: 92%

Visibility: Moderate

Pressure: 1025mb, Rising

Observation station: London

(Lat: 51.517 | Lon: -0.1)

[fulham snow]

Looks like game over.May see one or two light snow shower (Mainly in the East) but a big let down from a few days ago.

[Delka]

12 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

For those of us who love some wintry weather it will be interesting to track model forecasts over the coming days as we head towards a cold blast from the east and hopefully a little snow falling.

So to start, a look at this evening's GFS 12z. This suggests early Saturday morning may be our best chance over the next 5 days of seeing a dusting of settling snow. It's a tick in the box for most prerequisites for snow, including 850 hpa temps at -8C, dew points at 0C or below and 2m ground temps close to 0C except coastal fringes. Respective charts for 07.00:

And with precipitation moving in off the North Sea, charts show light snow for many in our Region, giving a dusting of up to 1 cm. It's not a lot, but better than nothing?

even the good ones show it going around me!

[lassie23]

16 minutes ago, fulham snow said:

Looks like game over.May see one or two light snow shower (Mainly in the East) but a big let down from a few days ago.

All the usual suspects in the MOD thread will have egg on their faces.......again

[CK1981]

I wonder if there will be a big shift in the Met Office outlook today? If they stick to their guns, maybe the models are being over progressive with the shift from cold easterlies to mild southerlies!