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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

frosty, sunny, misty. Now it's gone cloudy. i think it was cold. went back to bed.:lazy:

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
32 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi Mick

Thurs onwards this week has proved difficult to generate any confident forecast for our location- mainly due to 2 reoccuring reasons over the last 2 days

...

So in summary - models gradually swinging to the solution that extracts the best from this scenario, snow flurries about & temps very surpressed around 1c with widespread frosts-  with all eyes more so on sat sun for snow although thurs / Fri could spring a surprise or 2 - poss back edge snow weds as front migrates back west

 

best

s

 

Many thanks Steve

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One of the best qualities of having regional forums is so we all let eachother know what's going on near eachother... I'm a lamppost forecaster ... others are chart forecasters ... and together we all bring something to the table ... here and only here do I feel ok to say ... snowing , cold , frosty and maybe add some humour to it now and then ... just want to say ty to everyone really for their input in whatever way ....

see you all next winter :) 

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
13 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

One of the best qualities of having regional forums is so we all let eachother know what's going on near eachother... I'm a lamppost forecaster ... others are chart forecasters ... and together we all bring something to the table ... here and only here do I feel ok to say ... snowing , cold , frosty and maybe add some humour to it now and then ... just want to say ty to everyone really for their input in whatever way ....

see you all next winter :) 

Hi there

 are you not going to hang around for what "could" be the best part of the winter coming up ?

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
1 hour ago, Snowflake Queen said:

One of the best qualities of having regional forums is so we all let eachother know what's going on near eachother... I'm a lamppost forecaster ... others are chart forecasters ... and together we all bring something to the table ... here and only here do I feel ok to say ... snowing , cold , frosty and maybe add some humour to it now and then ... just want to say ty to everyone really for their input in whatever way ....

see you all next winter :) 

This Winter is not over yet by any means :rofl:;)

 

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Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
23 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Planet... will come back if anything happens :) 

kent .... never implied winter was over ... was mainly a ty post for everyone's input no matter what way ...

Good, we'll see you for the rest of this week then and the week after :) :cold::good:

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Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day

omg hair splitting back stabbing in mad thread!!!!! wow worst I have seen in a long time!!!!!!!

Edited by Jimmyh
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
4 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

omg hair splitting back stabbing in mad thread!!!!! wow worst I have seen in a long time!!!!!!!

What's there to argue about in there, it's going to get cold:cc_confused:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Braintree essex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything exciting.
  • Location: Braintree essex

Met check have issued an advance weather warning for ice and snow from 8th to the 12th.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Nice to have a frost this morning feeling more like winter again. GFS 12z increases the snow risk for our region it's been quite difficult following the models lately. 

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
48 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Nice to have a frost this morning feeling more like winter again. GFS 12z increases the snow risk for our region it's been quite difficult following the models lately. 

Yes I like the look of these exchange of tweets . I noted that Yamkin was amongst them .

IMG_5443.PNG

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yes I like the look of these exchange of tweets . I noted that Yamkin was amongst them .

IMG_5443.PNG

I'm amongst that as well^ @TheSnowDreamer :p 

lets hope I won't be dreaming for much longer...

Twitter is an interesting place quite disorderly though when the cold charts churn out..

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I'm amongst that as well^ @TheSnowDreamer :p 

lets hope I won't be dreaming for much longer...

Twitter is an interesting place quite disorderly though when the cold charts churn out..

Lol . I'm on twitter but I am absolutely useless at posting etc I just can't get used to hit . I just view .

looks good so far fingers crossed and everything else.:clapping:

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
1 hour ago, Jimmyh said:

omg hair splitting back stabbing in mad thread!!!!! wow worst I have seen in a long time!!!!!!!

Yes you have to laugh. I expect most are off to Accident and Emergency for therapy. No wonder our hospitals are going through difficulties. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire

Thomas Schaffernaker on the BBC last nights 18:30 evening weather: "Getting colder later this week but looks predominantly dry"

Thomas on Tonights 18:30:

"East winds are going to win and Yes some snow is likely, exactly how much? We are not sure yet, but 'maybe' enough to build a snowman over the hills" 

I'll take that.... 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

Cripes the model thread is a bit manic at times isn't it? Such wildly swinging emotions; only potential snow could cause such things!

Edited by Long haul to mild
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1 hour ago, Isabellesnanny said:

Can anybody throw any light on any possible snow on Wednesday -  trip out arranged which will have to be cancelled if there are any travel issues in our corner.

Hiya -

Wednesday is unlikely to prove eventful for snow, the frontal zone looks to pass through tomorrow eastwards & then stall out on the eastern edge of the region, locations like Clacton, lowestoft Etc- it will then migrate back SW through weds morning but fizzling all the time- so at best rain with a few sleety bits here & there -

We then have around 24 hours to allow the cold air to filter in from the East-

In terms of post that heres my summary for today based on the Euros not really the GFS

- Upper air cold pool arrives in the NE of the region late weds & filters into all of us by thurs morn - the temps will be thurs ~ 2c but dropping below freezing in the eve- snow flurries developing from lunch time--- not expected to deliver much other than visual fun !

Friday & sat will see snow flurries - PROBABLY becoming heavier - but not 100% yet - this is because we are now seeing instability increase just to the East in the North sea- 

Projected peak of 'availablity' of snowfall is probably late fri eve through to sunday morning - with the chance post that of slightly milder air pushing in from the continent-

( just to add the UKMO has a period of snow Sun prior to the milder air approaching later Sun )

Any accumulations? Well the flow at the moment suggests streamer availabilty - however flow very difficult to pin - could be easterly so all of the region or slightly more NE enhancing Kents chances... but yes depending where the allignment sets up certainly suggests we could see coverage-

Lots to play for with the models continually developing this 5 day cold plunge from the east-

post that--- ... hum 50/50 but a few parameters are suggesting that after a milder interlude ( time unknown ) a greenland high could feature- also the milder interlude could evaporate all together...

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hiya -

Wednesday is unlikely to prove eventful for snow, the frontal zone looks to pass through tomorrow eastwards & then stall out on the eastern edge of the region, locations like Clacton, lowestoft Etc- it will then migrate back SW through weds morning but fizzling all the time- so at best rain with a few sleety bits here & there -

We then have around 24 hours to allow the cold air to filter in from the East-

In terms of post that heres my summary for today based on the Euros not really the GFS

- Upper air cold pool arrives in the NE of the region late weds & filters into all of us by thurs morn - the temps will be thurs ~ 2c but dropping below freezing in the eve-

Friday & sat will see snow flurries - PROBABLY but not 100% becoming heavier - this is because we are now seeing instability increase just to the East in the North sea- 

Projected peak of 'availablity' of snowfall is probably late fri eve through to sunday morning - with the chance post that of slightly milder air pushing in from the continent-

Any accumulations? Well the flow at the moment suggests streamer availabilty - however flow very difficult to pin - could be easterly so all of the region or slightly more NE enhancing Kents chances...

Lots to play for with the models continually developing this 5 day cold plunge from the east-

post that--- ... hum 50/50 but a few parameters are suggesting that after a milder interlude ( time unknown ) a greenland high could feature- also the milder interlude could evaporate all together...

Steve thank you sooooo much for this update, it's saved me having to read through pages of "blaaahhh" on the MOD thread - plus the fact that I absolutely value your forecasts and have done for the last 5yrs! So chances are looking good, even if I have to drive up to Boxhill again for a bit more depth, lol! Thanks again xxx

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Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl

Looking at the charts and Steve's update, I would say.....Sledge time.

Come on SE corner, let's make it happen.

Crown Hill anyone ?

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

You will injure yourself down Crown Hill Vesuvius and you know it :bomb::D I reckon Hadleigh Castle still has some of the best sledging around our parts

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