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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

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Morning all, not sure about everyone else but is anyone actually really bothered about the next cold spell which in reality doesn't look like to be anything out of the ordinary, even tho certain members are! It's going to be like the famous Feb of 91, no it's not! Get a grip! 

I for one is now looking for warmth, roll,on spring I say! 

Grumpy over and out lol 

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Top of the morning to you all. Spring is round the corner, it was Sunny and fairly mild here in Seaford yesterday. But its a bit chilly and overcast now only 6C. thats 43F. With an easterly breeze. Before the climate changed it would only be about 3C. So it makes one feel a little better.

A day in front of the log fire,sunset today 5.01. Yippiee we passed the 5.00 mark. only 22 days to the start of the Met office Spring. Have a jolly nice weekend everyone. Cheers and good health.

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16 minutes ago, slater said:

Morning all, not sure about everyone else but is anyone actually really bothered about the next cold spell which in reality doesn't look like to be anything out of the ordinary, even tho certain members are! It's going to be like the famous Feb of 91, no it's not! Get a grip! 

I for one is now looking for warmth, roll,on spring I say! 

Grumpy over and out lol 

I'm looking forward to it, cold spell is win win for me, it will either be cold and dry which i much prefer for outdoor stuff I have stacked up waiting to do, or it could even be cold and snowy which is even better.

All options still on the table at this stage it seems.

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Models and Model forum looking very bullish this morning, look very forward to Steve's update to our thread.

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Thought it was meant to be sunny today? Overcast here, very dreary. 

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Bit of a nuisance this supposed up and coming cold weather. Just got my begonia seeds to germinate along with other stuff. More cost in keeping them going for a good show this summer. Seems I should have planted courgettes and made my fortune. 

Also just had to order some solid fuel. 

Fortunately have a linked in central heating system where I can use solid fuel and or oil.

 

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Snow mentioned in the forecast

5 hours ago, Sharpedge said:

Models and Model forum looking very bullish this morning, look very forward to Steve's update to our thread.

Steve who?

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1 minute ago, Unused sledge said:

So according to countryfile it's going to be a maxima of 3 by Friday... from an EASTERLY pffft 

That's cold by their standards.. I  find that they always over estimate the temperature. Let's just wait and see what actually happens. 

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Not much to say about today, but I think we were spoilt by a sunny Friday and Saturday up here. Just gloomy today after the fog lifted.

Still no idea how this week will pan out, it will certainly turn colder but how cold is the question and of course whether we will get any snow?

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Snow is a plus... ice days are great ... don't get me wrong I'd love to go sledging but I'm the kind of person who gets annoyed and upset if all the great weather gods get together and bless us with snow .... and I hear DRIP DRIP DRIP from the drainpipe after an hour... sorry 

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49 minutes ago, Unused sledge said:

Snow is a plus... ice days are great ... don't get me wrong I'd love to go sledging but I'm the kind of person who gets annoyed and upset if all the great weather gods get together and bless us with snow .... and I hear DRIP DRIP DRIP from the drainpipe after an hour... sorry 

Agree. If the temperature can stay below 0C for at least a couple of days and nights, great. But most snow events in recent years have been of the drip drip variety. 

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Let's get the snow in first before we worry about the drip drip drip :rofl:

We was unlucky with that last batch of snow, the temps /DPs increased just at the wrong time then within a day we went into the freezer and in sheltered areas snow could be seen 10 days later round here, mounds where people had cleared drives etc

Atleast we have interesting days of model outputs ahead of us. I for one would love it to be a decent Easterly bringing in Thames Streamers, having a week of fun then I'll be more than happy to start looking forward to Spring and early Warmth.

I'd rate this winter a 7 out of 10 so far, plenty of frosts and just need a decent snow spell to make it a very good winter indeed.

euT2mMonInd1.gif

:cold:

 

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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Morning All, a return to winter by end of the week apparently. Well this morning started the trend of misty, cold and frosty starts to the morning.

Hoping the rain stays away this evening until dog walking has finished. And looks like a possible fog/mist due again tomorrow.

 

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Steve, long time no chat, :) any forecast from you on the coming week? your thoughts please for us in the SE/Plumstead/Welling/B'Heath areas

Mick

Edited by chionomaniac
Removed deleted quote

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-10 850Hpa by the end of the week :)

72-7UK.GIF?06-6

But let's not forget E or SE'ly wind off a very cold continent snow can fall up to -1c at 850Hpa and thicknesses can be as high as 537dam as the air is dry and very cold.

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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Unexpected frost here this morning, -0.5c air temp and -1.0c in the screen, but 2.5 c on the grass so maybe the grass has kept some of the heat from last few days.

What will the cold spell bring for our region...

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1 hour ago, MAF said:

Steve, long time no chat, :) any forecast from you on the coming week? your thoughts please for us in the SE/Plumstead/Welling/B'Heath areas

Mick

Hi Mick

Thurs onwards this week has proved difficult to generate any confident forecast for our location- mainly due to 2 reoccuring reasons over the last 2 days

* UKMO flow was good however questionable around heights & thicknesses  having the depth to create enough gradient & lift to produce proper snow shower clouds & shower trains

* GFS was double worse as it never really brought any cold with not low enough thickness - it also quickly lifted any cold out via the atlantic trough driving a SE onshore flow -

Most of my postings yesterday were showing how the GFS would change towards the UKMO & that things related to depths & thickness could well improve as well-

over the last 12-18 hours mainly since the 12s yesterday - the upgrades have come thick & fast- however there not always apparent especially when there across UKMO & GFS over 12z & 18z - then 00z + 06z as well-

Firstly the GFS has moved to the UKMO in ensuring the easterly flow is maintained rather than the fast SE flow - although the ensembles show a slight upper warm up still ...- but some 06z ENS runs only get up -5 at day 5- the mean -3, a drop from around 0c depicted yesterday- 

Also that initial cold pool has gradually been eased south in the models eyes to now from the 06z be including SE england at T72 - seeing -11c ( see the chart posted above by kent blizzard )

Combined with this the UKMO upgrades have come from lowering heights & increasing instability all the way from 72-120 & beyond !( but sadly I havent got updated 00z 850s yet )

- The net result is modelling for Thursday - Friday has gone from - 

Sun GFS maxes Thur 3c DP 0c - isolated flurries Friday 4c DP -1c flurries turning to rain from the SE

Mon GFS maxes Thurs 0c DP-4c snow flurries , Friday 2c DP flurries again reducing-

NB: GFs OP between Fri AM & SAT AM has slightly warmer upper air pushing up reducing shower activity, which was mentioned above - however as each run comes so this moderating SE flow is becoming less impactfull - with the UKMO making nothing of it-

The UKMO would be more showery in nature, snow featuring more but nothing widespread pre 120 yet. Post 120 -144 could get very wintry although Im waiting to see more model consensus with this yet as ECM not on board.

So in summary - models gradually swinging to the solution that extracts the best from this scenario, snow flurries about & temps very surpressed around 1c with widespread frosts-  with all eyes more so on sat sun for snow although thurs / Fri could spring a surprise or 2 - poss back edge snow weds as front migrates back west

 

best

s

 

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