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SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
1 hour ago, Whether Idle said:

My predictions for the forthcoming snow: depths by midday Saturday

Sweetspot - east Kent Downs north of Folkestone/Dover - up to 10 cms in areas 150m +

0-50 metres SE generally 0-3 cms.

50-150 m east Kent 2- 7 cms

SWW to follow from Met O around midday tomorrow.

Whether Idle.

150m+ sea level ✔️

On the East Kent Downs north of Folkestone ✔️

Sledge waiting patiently to come out of the shed ✔️

 

Similar set up in February 2010 saw us under a streamer for near on 24 hours and gave roughly 8" with drifts over 5ft on the hills overlooking g Folkestone....please let it happen again!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent
18 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

150m+ sea level ✔️

On the East Kent Downs north of Folkestone ✔️

Sledge waiting patiently to come out of the shed ✔️

 

Similar set up in February 2010 saw us under a streamer for near on 24 hours and gave roughly 8" with drifts over 5ft on the hills overlooking g Folkestone....please let it happen again!

 

Lottie, you are in pole position.  Best case scenario is 10cms.  Median scenario 4 cms...worst case zilch.  If you pitch your expectations between worst case and median (at say 2cms) then you are less likely to be disappointed.  Be aware that milder upper air moves in from the east at around 3pm so any laying snow will start to melt, though if dew points can remain around 0 then maybe not too much, so get out there early Saturday if you want to max out! Needs to be added that all of the above reflects the model output as of 12z Thursday.  It will be a case radar/lamppost watching Friday night - and by then checking the Met O forecast. Still time for it to go "mammatus verticus"

Edited by Whether Idle
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Utterly miserable evening weatherwise here, 2C and bouts of drizzle/snizzle. When is the snow coming lol?!

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
14 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

150m+ sea level ✔️

On the East Kent Downs north of Folkestone ✔️

Sledge waiting patiently to come out of the shed ✔️

 

Similar set up in February 2010 saw us under a streamer for near on 24 hours and gave roughly 8" with drifts over 5ft on the hills overlooking g Folkestone....please let it happen again!

 

your location is looking okay for this scenario.. maybe a surprise of an inch, maybe even two by saturday evening!

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So today a few wintry flurries around- however it was always borderline & for those located close to the thames then the air has been to saturated-

The main period of interest starts from about 1pm tomorrow- Temps are pretty stationary now - however after lunch into tomorrow afternoon they will drop & significantly the dewpoints will drop towards -4c

I agree with @Whether Idle about the depths for sat although the 18z does seem more Easterly indicating the showers will get further westwards !

S

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
30 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Utterly miserable evening weatherwise here, 2C and bouts of drizzle/snizzle. When is the snow coming lol?!

Perhaps next winter if you're lucky!

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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent

Awesome photos Lottie.  I don't think you will quite make those conditions, but if anyone in the SE is in with a shout of seeing some of the white stuff, you are!

 

Edited by Whether Idle
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Several CM of snow possible quite widely I sense more than what the Arome is currently portraying in places e.g. Kent a couple of inches for the hills potentially. 

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Posted
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,
  • Weather Preferences: love snow and frosty mornings
  • Location: Moreton, Ongar Essex,

no wintry flurries, very still and quiet  here , no wind , not cold, just damp, very eerie actually :cc_confused:. waiting for something lol  

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Posted
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
  • Location: Great Yarmouth
50 minutes ago, poprodder said:

white sky here in gt yarmouth.  nothing yet though. 

Been like it all day, i keep looking out, went out earlier and it didn't seem too cold except when you got in the wind, then it was raw.

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The accumulative snow depth charts may not be far from reality except that if the snow falls too slowly to settle then it will just end up as dampness on the ground. We haven't managed to get a frost in before any precip and that doesn't bode well imo. Suspect decent elevation or some intensity of snowfall (at least initially) will be key to any  snow cover. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent
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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Looking like in the early hours showers could start getting beefier and could move further inland over our region, i think just about anyone could wake up to a surprise dusting on a few surfaces like I did this morning. But like said before by others, main opportunity for many of any meaningful snow is tomorrow afternoon/evening heading into Saturday morning before the coldest uppers clear away and it turns increasingly to sleet and rain for coastal areas. By evening on Saturday any precip still falling at sea level will be rain with sleet to higher levels.

I'm very confused at why the Meto haven't put out any warnings for this possible low moving through because I have the feeling that it could cause quite alot of disruption if snow does start coming down, especially with London a possible place.. we all know what happens when London gets even a dusting!

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Met Office warning in force further North, I'm very confused at why they don't have one for North Norfolk anymore as i can safely say that its very slippy outside already!

Expecting either a yellow snow or ice warning for Friday evening and Saturday at some point in the next 12 hours.

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Been a raw day here with the temp barely moving all day ranging from 2.1-2.8 degrees with ice pellets this morning and just plain drizzle this afternoon.Window for opportunity for snow seems to be getting narrower all the time and i think from 6pm tomorrow till midday Saturday covers it with the lucky ones getting a covering but most probably not seeing much if anything.After that temps and DPs will slowly rise and that will be that for this cold snap for the SE.No point in dressing it up any other way and this current spell sums up the UKs luck this winter.Not since March 2013 have we seen so much potential in the models only for things to go the shape of the pear!!I still hold a little hope for us in the SE and i always have said to myself if no snow by March 15th each year then i just want Spring to arrive.The clock is certainly ticking..!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards,Hot Thundery nights.
  • Location: Cambourne Cambridge 70M ASL
30 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I'm still holding out for a repeat of this...

 

 

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Your location is perfect for Snow and storm's I'm just a bit jealous!

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Posted
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Cold.
  • Location: Work Haverhill Suffolk. Live in Thurrock
4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Showers starting to pile in to the north along E coast no huge change in intensity.

9:50 image.thumb.png.45484859d723f498fb0785d103d9697a.png 10:15 image.thumb.png.378de1a552e95d33b8fe627eec1d22c1.png

 

Is that snow mate? Or just cold rain....

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
1 minute ago, LeighD said:

Is that snow mate? Or just cold rain....

all definite snow

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 minutes ago, LeighD said:

Is that snow mate? Or just cold rain....

Rain on the coast due to the warming influence of North Sea. All falling as snow a stone's throw inland.

IMG_1858.thumb.PNG.2937743c1d7f6b5fccc08b0e14f7d731.PNG

 

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Posted
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Sun in summer, Snow in Winter
  • Location: Shorne West, Kent

Temps & DP rising steadily..........now 2c & 1.1c respectively....warmest I've recorded all day.

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