SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

[lassie23]

What's the point of it all

[throwoff]

Think the SE has a good chance next couple of days, we didn't expect the last lot to settle and a lot of us got over an inch, conditions are much more favourable this time round... Not sure why so much negativity here and in mod

[KDME]

7 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Think the SE has a good chance next couple of days, we didn't expect the last lot to settle and a lot of us got over an inch, conditions are much more favourable this time round... Not sure why so much negativity here and in mod

well, it is not expected to last 2 weeks, produce 10ft snow drifts and  temps of -20c 

 

Edited February 8, 2017 by Weather_Novice

[Methuselah]

I can announce that, with due euphoria, here in the Triangle of Doom, it's started...drizzling!

[throwoff]

2 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

well, it is not expected to last 2 weeks, produce 10ft snow drifts and  temps of -20c 

 

Just one day of lying snow and a chance of running a sled down a hill is a massive improvement on recent years! Though I totally agree, sometimes I question whether people are looking for stuff that's even possible in the UK!

[KDME]

4 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Just one day of lying snow and a chance of running a sled down a hill is a massive improvement on recent years! Though I totally agree, sometimes I question whether people are looking for stuff that's even possible in the UK!

Unfortunately, winter weather in recent years is making our expectations more and more limited.  Please don't be offended but hoping for just a day of settled snow is pathetic! ... but the reality 

I have to admit that I hope to see another 1987, which was the most dramatic in my lifetime.  Not experienced it for the past 30 years but still hoping at the beginning of every December 

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Just one day of lying snow and a chance of running a sled down a hill is a massive improvement on recent years! Though I totally agree, sometimes I question whether people are looking for stuff that's even possible in the UK!

I don't think people will be happy until we get a December 2010 repeat. That's the trouble, that cold spell has set a benchmark for all future cold spells and a couple of days of snow flurries just isn't going to live upto that expectation. 

But, given the last 2-3 years of the complete lack of snow across much of our region, I'd take a few snow flurries over nothing.

[throwoff]

2 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

Unfortunately, winter weather in recent years is making our expectations more and more limited.  Please don't be offended but hoping for just a day of settled snow is pathetic! ... but the reality 

I have to admit that I hope to see another 1987, which was the most dramatic in my lifetime.  Not experienced it for the past 30 years but still hoping at the beginning of every December 

I fully disagree, with the area and nation we live in a day of lying snow is far beyond pathetic!

Just look at some of the 06z runs, I really think we could have it sit!

 

 

[Nimbusman]

10 minutes ago, throwoff said:

Think the SE has a good chance next couple of days, we didn't expect the last lot to settle and a lot of us got over an inch, conditions are much more favourable this time round... Not sure why so much negativity here and in mod

I agree, i think we will see something white falling from the sky here in this region, nothing noteworthy but something is better than nowt!

I think the despondency has come from the background signals during the past few days suggesting we wont be seeing any greenland heights anytime soon post this cold snap. That coupled with some pretty poor winters snowfall wise in our little part of the world the past few years i think people are getting a little frustrated to say the least.

 

[Ben Lewis]

I'm not quite sure why folk keep throwing around that members should lower expectations etc every time a cold spell gets watered down, which is practically every single one since March 2013. 

To assume that people will not be happy until a repeat of 2010 happens is absolute nonsense. 

I think even the most, freaky weather freaks know that's very unlikely, however to expect decent snow cover for what looks like approaching 4 years I think its perfectly acceptable to be downbeat over yet another pathetic attempt at snow. 

A possible flake/grain or two over the next couple of days followed by a milder trend from Sunday afternoon. It's awful... I empathise with anyone feeling downbeat ~  nearly 4 years without a decent covering lasting longer than a day? That's pretty bad going even for the UK. 

I, and I'm sure many others are here, to find/track snowfall so when it doesn't happen yet again of course we'll be downbeat. 

Several of you are clearly happy with the dry weather and frost and think it's great & good for you, but don't come on here bashing snow starved members who are unable to make themselves feel better by telling themselves "but it's ok the local lake has frozen over 3 times and We've had consecutive days of frost with one ice day, what more do you want" 

 

[Ben Lewis]

Meto office update for Eastern England:

"Scattered sleet or snow showers, becoming less cold on Sunday with spells of rain arriving"

Ah well, if only that disturbance and cold pool materialised that was showing on UKMO a couple days ago, would of produced something decent I recon. 

Since 2013 it's like pulling teeth to get a decent snow event to our little part of the world... the disappointment continues!  (Excluding the happy bunnies of frost and fog of course) 

[Kent Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Meto office update for Eastern England:

"Scattered sleet or snow showers, becoming less cold on Sunday with spells of rain arriving"

Ah well, if only that disturbance and cold pool materialised that was showing on UKMO a couple days ago, would of produced something decent I recon. 

Since 2013 it's like pulling teeth to get a decent snow event to our little part of the world... the disappointment continues!  (Excluding the happy bunnies of frost and fog of course) 

Almost 4 days away, as we have seen lots can change in 4 days and plenty of weather between now and then to get through  

[MAF]

I can't but help thinking how much the Thames Streamer a few years back took us (and the Met O ) by complete suprise. Looking at all the data posted and graphics showing wind/ppn I wouldn't be suprised if a streamer is in the offing.

Health warning - I am about as knowlegeable about meteorology as my 4 year old grandaughter  

[NO LONGER POSTING]

3 minutes ago, MAF said:

I can't but help thinking how much the Thames Streamer a few years back took us (and the Met O ) by complete suprise. Looking at all the data posted and graphics showing wind/ppn I wouldn't be suprised if a streamer is in the offing.

Health warning - I am about as knowlegeable about meteorology as my 4 year old grandaughter  

Streamer is highly highly unlikely the flow is not a direct easterly nor do we have the instability to fire one up. 

 

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Streamer is highly highly unlikely the flow is not a direct easterly nor do we have the instability to fire one up. 

 

I'm not 100%, a streamer by its nature is almost always a nowcast event, it isn't likely in this situation but it's the best position we have been for one to pop up for a long time!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just now, throwoff said:

I'm not 100%, a streamer by its nature is almost always a nowcast event, it isn't likely in this situation but it's the best position we have been for one to pop up for a long time!

I, but you need ingredients for one which are not there (= unfortunately 

[MAF]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Streamer is highly highly unlikely the flow is not a direct easterly nor do we have the instability to fire one up. 

 

Well as i said, my knowledge is limited. But living along the Thames in SE London and seeing the pure easterly predicted for Monday on the Met O site for Woolwich; I am, perhaps, over optimistic  

[throwoff]

Just now, Surrey said:

I, but you need ingredients for one which are not there (= unfortunately 

This is true, still think the SE region could be surprised by this stuff coming in though.

Almost to a man nobody thought we would end up with anything lying last time and a fair number of us got a snow day! I would be happy with a bit more of the same!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I think frost will be very limited too in this cold period due to the amount of cloud coming in from the east. 

I don't really like easterly winds unless we have instability and a proper wind to blow the showers in. 

Otherwise it's a complete borefest with low cloud and drizzle/light snow. 

 

[danm]

1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

I don't think people will be happy until we get a December 2010 repeat. That's the trouble, that cold spell has set a benchmark for all future cold spells and a couple of days of snow flurries just isn't going to live upto that expectation. 

But, given the last 2-3 years of the complete lack of snow across much of our region, I'd take a few snow flurries over nothing.

I don't think it was just December 2010, even though that month was remarkable. 

We went through a succession of winters from 08/09 to 2012/13 where there were significant snow events. In London I can think of Feb 2009 (most snow here since Feb 1991), December 2009 (cold and quite snowy), Jan 2010 (big snow event for much of southern England), end of November and December 2010 (we all know about this), Feb 2012 (another significant snow event for SE England) and January 2013 (cold and more snow).

So we had a run of winters that produced enough snow to keep most happy. However, the winters since 2013/14 have been dire in terms of snow. I can't actually remember a run of winters so bad for falling and lying snow. Even the winters before 08/09, whilst relatively unremarkable, had more snow than we've experienced over the last 4 years. Off the top of my head I can think of Feb 2007, December 2005, Feb 2005, January 2004 (thundersnow event), Jan 2003 (two good snowfalls here). 

The weather goes in cycles and hopefully we'll see a run of cold winters again soon. 

Edited February 8, 2017 by danm

[lawrenk]

Can add March 2013 to that list as well.

we got a couple of inches here whilst the Channel Islands of all places got pummelled!

This Winter has so far, I suppose,been disappointing in terms of what it's produced but we have at least been in with a shot most of the time. The last couple of winters there's been days and days gone by where I haven't even bothered looking on the forum, such has been the lack of any cold prospects.

Anyway, still more than enough time yet for a decent event. Always remember beginning of April 08 when Eastbourne(right down to the beach) got several inches, during the day as well.

[Chris101]

55 minutes ago, MAF said:

Well as i said, my knowledge is limited. But living along the Thames in SE London and seeing the pure easterly predicted for Monday on the Met O site for Woolwich; I am, perhaps, over optimistic  

I think the flow will come from the right direction, but only for a very limited time...........As Surrey has said we really need some instability for it, -15 uppers and a stronger Easterly would have been nice.

But hey crazier things have happened.

 

On another note my drizzle has frozen bits in it

Edited February 8, 2017 by Chris101

[Kent Blizzard]

The little Computer forecast symbols from the Meto show Light to Heavy Snow during the night 

[Daniel*]

Kent streamer possible I'd say on Saturday and FYI for a Thames streamer you do not want a direct east wind you want a slight north element an ENE wind.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Kent streamer possible I'd say on Saturday and FYI for a Thames streamer you do not want a direct east wind you want a slight north element an ENE wind.

Saturday is Deffo the best day to see any showers push further inland although that is away from immediate coasts