SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

[CK1981]

I was so optimistic about the upcoming cold spell, but it does look to be a very much watered down version now! Such a shame as this was our best shot at some decent cold and snow :-(

 

[fulham snow]

We should all know better as how many times has this happened over the past few years.

[Dami]

funny old morning, damp and felt very mild although i could see my breath as i talked to bubs. Felt much warmer than yesterday, in fact yesterday evening before the real rain came looked quite snowy, the clouds had that 'look about them'. 

Not surprised things have changed on the models, and the out look grim. A bit like seeing it could hail today and seeing none for my area. \o/

I never believe it will snow until i see it falling

Edited February 7, 2017 by Dami

[lassie23]

8 minutes ago, fulham snow said:

We should all know better as how many times has this happened over the past few years.

It's the cold rampers who suck everyone else in. If people want an accurate view on the forth coming weather, they should bypass the MOD thread and watch Jo Farrow updates and read netweather TV updates instead. Twotheweatheroutlook homepage always gives a balanced weather summary/outlook too. Too many self made 'experts' in there.

[Dami]

14 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

It's the cold rampers who suck everyone else in. If people want an accurate view on the forth coming weather, they should bypass the MOD thread and watch Jo Farrow updates and read netweather TV updates instead. Twotheweatheroutlook homepage always gives a balanced weather summary/outlook too. Too many self made 'experts' in there.

It'll only get worst when we hit what I call the thunderstorm season.

[fulham snow]

wow the model forum,one minute disaster next minute yippee,not sure what to believe

[Captain Shortwave]

A nice afternoon here with the sun finally out, it feels quite pleasant, but all change from tomorrow with a chilly easterly developing.  I wouldn't rule out seeing snow just about anywhere in this region by the end of the week.

[lassie23]

16 minutes ago, fulham snow said:

wow the model forum,one minute disaster next minute yippee,not sure what to believe

This is what happens when you feel the need to comment on every single model run.

[pegg24]

11 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

This is what happens when you feel the need to comment on every single model run.

People do need to take a chill pill on there been utter madness last few days lol. 

[Kentspur]

So the met office 6 to 30 day update says "snow showers likely in south and east" dont give up hope guys!

[slater]

well below average cold days Thurs-Monday, but METO going for 8C for my area from Tuesday onwards,also my weather apps going higher 8-10C so can someone explain to me why in the model rooms saying the cold getting worse HUH?... or this to wind everyone up!!

 

[Delka]

I'm overjoyed by just the small chance of a snow flurry again here, its been years since we've had two cold spells in one winter that have produced snow so I'd be happy just to see a flake fall. Above anything I'm worried about ice though, as here along the coast it may not turn to snow soon enough and may turn into some severe freezing rain showers which might cause more disruption. People seem to be overlooking that though so I'm hoping i myself am just digging too deep 

[Dami]

One minute here i'm seeing snow symbols galore, but nothing on METO then they disappear here and i've got a few on MetO.

Am I excited for any snow?

No, jason the man with a van delivered me more stuffs to wear for when it gets a bit 'warmer' <3

[clark3r]

Just when I start getting excited for snow! Experts are not saying any decent snow for here! I think it's another very poor winter down here again! Roll on summer!

[slater]

1 minute ago, clark3r said:

Just when I start getting excited for snow! Experts are not saying any decent snow for here! I think it's another very poor winter down here again! Roll on summer!

Totally agree getting rather a bit boring now a bit of a yawn fest to be honest. I'm looking for warmth now,

[lassie23]

BBC weather, a chance of a covering over northern hills

[slater]

Also this has got to be the most overrated Easterly in years, No Snow! Thick Cloud,! No frosts! and no dam sun! 

[Delka]

I think people are overlooking the very lovely crisp winter weather we enjoyed most of January in our region when saying it was another bad winter, we've had plenty of amazing scenic frosty and foggy days here where I am and we didn't even join in until the slightly snowy spell mid month!

[snowrye]

Oh dear,the inevitable downgrades have started already,did I get sucked in......yep,silly me,beautiful in the sun today,daffs are out here and there,and I want spring to arrive,a better winter than previous,with a 2 week cold spell,and some lovely days and frosty nights,but sadly so far,not a lot of the stuff we all really want

[Delka]

its trying very hard to give me a snow day on saturday..

[Ben Lewis]

36 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

BBC weather, a chance of a covering over northern hills

Yes. I think at the very best we may see a flake/grain or two over the weekend but nothing more unless we see a disturbance pushing in from the north sea. 

 

 

[Delka]

3 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Yes. I think at the very best we may see a flake/grain or two over the weekend but nothing more unless we see a disturbance pushing in from the north sea. 

 

 

no snow flurries on the east coast? I think if showers do come off of the north sea I could be in quite a good location

[VillagePlank]

There's a good chance we will see some of the white stuff before Monday.

This is the cold 850hPa arriving, tomorrow, from the east and exiting north on Sunday

Here's the deeper 500hPa layer cold air arriving from the west, tomorrow, exiting to the east, thursday

t

However, this seems to be a temporay thing with the deeper cold air reversing it's direction and then coming in from the east on Friday, and leaving early on Sunday

If it precipitates then it should fall as snow anywhere at height from about midnight, tonight - through to Friday morning, and then falling as snow to sea level on Saturday. The question is, will it precipitate? Best day, is, funnily enough, Saturday,

However, there is drizzle in the air all week - some will see more drizzle, some will see less - it's that kind of dirty high pressure. Hopes for Thames streamers (and equivalent convective streams) are still alive - just - it's the wrong time of year with SST of the North Sea somewhat too cool for vigorous convection

Do I think our region will see snow before Monday? Yes. Is it going to be show-stopping, everyone gets a day off work? No. It is probably best characterised as damp, dark, and dull - with the odd flurry in the air - with the best chances for any depth on Saturday - maybe 2cms in favoured locations.

Edited February 7, 2017 by VillagePlank

[Delka]

3 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

There's a good chance we will see some of the white stuff before Monday.

This is the cold 850hPa arriving, tomorrow, from the east and exiting north on Sunday

Here's the deeper 500hPa layer cold air arriving from the west, tomorrow, exiting to the east, thursday

t

However, this seems to be a temporay thing with the deeper cold air reversing it's direction and then coming in from the east on Friday, and leaving early on Sunday

If it precipitates then it should fall as snow anywhere at height from about midnight, tonight - through to Friday morning, and then falling as snow to sea level on Saturday. The question is, will it precipitate? Best day, is, funnily enough, Saturday,

However, there is drizzle in the air all week - some will see more drizzle, some will see less - it's that kind of dirty high pressure. Hopes for Thames streamers (and equivalent convective streams) are still alive - just - it's the wrong time of year with SST of the North Sea somewhat too cool for vigorous convection

Do I think our region will see snow before Monday? Yes. Is it going to be show-stopping, everyone gets a day off work? No. It is probably best characterised as damp, dark, and dull - with the odd flurry in the air - with the best chances for any depth on Saturday - maybe 2cms in favoured locations.

i'd love your take on this to pull off!

[VillagePlank]

3 minutes ago, Delka said:

i'd love your take on this to pull off!

Well, it's just what the charts show: a dank, very stable atmosphere, with heavy clouds producing a little precipitation where it is sufficiently cold enough at height for that precipitation to fall as snow.