SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

[alexisj9]

I have clear skies and frost everywhere.

[snowbob]

51 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Theres not much more room to wiggle as theres no low pressure in europe but the 18z is about the best we get

whats good though at 120-144 is the heights drop away to the SE & the slack flow gets colder- meanwhile the atlantic has gone Awol..

As before it varifies it will be the coldest 7 days for 7 years...

Glad you decided to come back steve

feel your frustration with the easterly

[alexisj9]

Looks like the rain is already on it's way, is it a bit early?

It's already as far south as central wales in places.

[Kent Blizzard]

19 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Looks like the rain is already on it's way, is it a bit early?

It's already as far south as central wales in places.

If so, I wonder it if means more snow as the temps will still be low if reaches us earlier?

[runboy]

Nice covering of snow in NW Norwich tonight, more than a dusting but not enough to build a snow gerbil. 

[Kent Blizzard]

Alexis makes a very good point, I'll use Heathrow an example, they are forecast for rain starting at 5am but like Alexis states its moving down quicker and will certainly be with Heathrow long before 5am unless the front edge keeps getting swallowed up

Interesting for those that keep the colder Temps longer!

 

Edited January 15, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[alexisj9]

6 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Alexis makes a very good point, I'll use Heathrow an example, they are forecast for rain starting at 5am but like Alexis states its moving down quicker and will certainly be with Heathrow long before 5am unless the front edge keeps getting swallowed up

Interesting for those that keep the colder Temps longer!

 

Well my temp and DP are already on there way up, just by a couple of points, however as the low was only 0.5 and the DP was-0.5  and is now -0.3, I doubt it'll be cold enough here. I'm sure it may be else where though.

[Kent Blizzard]

The radar has picked up some snow on the Eastern Edge and the usual favoured locations if any of you night owls are up

 Unless radar picking up false readings, the animation to me looks like the front edge hitting the colder air in the SE and turning to snow currently in some places, rain & sleet for others.

 

Edited January 15, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[zubzero]

I,m in Cambridge and nothing reaching the ground atm, I fear it will be a drizzly mess by the time it does reach the ground  

[Kent Blizzard]

Certainly seem to have our own little shield in the SE currently, looks like something heavy to the west, most likely rain!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Saw a few bits of sleet but all rain now and soon will be all rain across the region... Roll on the next bit of cold weather hopefully next week... 

Frosty cold and foggy lovely jubbly justike what we have had already :

 

[Great Plum]

Ah, cold rain - my favourite!

[Captain Shortwave]

Woke up at 6am to a quite stunning frost, which was then ruined by rain.

So now a day of drizzle here in south Essex, yay!!! 

[lassie23]

Raining, easterly vanished, snow vanished only hope is a huge SSW in the right place, then expect the unexpected, otherwise nothing to see here, move along.

[SP1986]

Problem with an SSW event is that the cold it produces can affect any number of places geographically  (even in a relatively small area such as Europe) and therefore it is not always destined to affect the UK in terms of cold. Of course it increases the risk but doesn't define what will happen. I suppose though when snow, frost and ice is hard to come by, it gives some hope. 

Edited January 15, 2017 by SP1986

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I don't think this winter has been that bad really.. Lots of wintery weather and a bit of snow.. Compare it to the last few it was a dross. 

Granted, we can and do get much colder snowy winters. 

Still a month and a half before we begin the hunt for any early spring warmth and sun. 

Roll on summer BBQS and storms though.. Hope it is as good as last year PHAOR 

[Radiating Dendrite]

To be honest I am already starting to crave a little warmth now and I am looking forward to making a big effort with the garden this year. We moved house mid-July last year, so this if my first chance to start afresh out back! Cannot wait for a few bbq's - snow is fun but warmth is a little more chaser friendly. If a warm spell downgrades from 29c to 25c......so what still plenty warm enough. If a cold spell downgrades from 0c upto 4c then it is a disaster!

Edited January 15, 2017 by Radiating Dendrite

[stainesbloke]

Vile morning, 4C and rain, good day for a roast dinner

[SnowBorder]

Not the most inspiring morning and a disappointment not to wake up to front edge snow, even though it was always unlikely.

Theres still plenty of winter left. Looking at the models, the remainder of January looks a write off, but February can often deliver decent snow e.g. 1991 and 2009. 

[slater]

Rubbish out there, cold rain falling on frozen ground, not even a hint of sleet either. Is annoying that we get some precipitation and 90% of time it's wrong side of marginal, and even make it worse not even going to make things milder here in the Far East. 

Apparently it's stays colder as well here next few days. Yes had frosts at night but -1 is hardly exciting,and same values expected as well,  like some of the other post, now looking forward to the spring warmth hopefully, but I have suspicions it won't be that straight forward 

[shotski]

51 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Problem with an SSW event is that the cold it produces can affect any number of places geographically  (even in a relatively small area such as Europe) and therefore it is not always destined to affect the UK in terms of cold. Of course it increases the risk but doesn't define what will happen. I suppose though when snow, frost and ice is hard to come by, it gives some hope. 

Does the positioning of the SSW enhance our chances of cold and the release into the troposphere of the colder uppers ? 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Does the positioning of the SSW enhance our chances of cold and the release into the troposphere of the colder uppers ? 

Theoretically yes but too many variables thereafter to make it meaningful - couple occasions over the past decade we have seen a smashed up trop p/v leave a lobe Newfoundland which spat out depresssions that kept the easterly influence too far to our east and se.

id look at this way - to get proper snow here requires you to throw 5 consecutive double sixes

an ssw means that the 1 on each dice is now a 6

the odds are increased but you would still won't throw those doubles ! (Nearly all of the time) 

[weathergeek]

33 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I don't think this winter has been that bad really.. Lots of wintery weather and a bit of snow.. Compare it to the last few it was a dross. 

Granted, we can and do get much colder snowy winters. 

Still a month and a half before we begin the hunt for any early spring warmth and sun. 

Roll on summer BBQS and storms though.. Hope it is as good as last year PHAOR 

I agree Surrey, I'd love to have seen more snow (especially before Christmas!) but on the whole it has felt like a proper winter this year and for the first time in many! Loads of pretty frosts, fog, freezing fog and then the snow the other day - we went up Boxhill to make the most of it!

 I live in a house with no central heating, I've had to wear a lot of layers, blankets and enjoyed having my fire on to get all cosy - last year it was too mild to barely have the fire on, lol! So it's felt very seasonal - I love seasons and this has felt like winter!

I wouldn't say no to another dumping of snow before end of Feb but I too am looking forward to Spring!!

H x

[Captain Shortwave]

The temperature is hovering around 1/2C degrees which is the same as most parts of Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex, nope the only thing falling is rain. There is still the faintest hope of a colder south easterly developing for a time later this week though the Euros look the least keen and keep high pressure slap bang over us before the eventual decline back to west/south westerlies.

Edited January 15, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[shotski]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Theoretically yes but too many variables thereafter to make it meaningful - couple occasions over the past decade we have seen a smashed up trop p/v leave a lobe Newfoundland which spat out depresssions that kept the easterly influence too far to our east and se.

id look at this way - to get proper snow here requires you to throw 5 consecutive double sixes

an ssw means that the 1 on each dice is now a 6

the odds are increased but you would still won't throw those doubles ! (Nearly all of the time) 

Cheers. 

And do we know for sure that, should it happen, this would in fact be a proper SSW and not just a natural warming of the strat. Met office don't seem to have picked up on the idea as yet and I remember in 2013 glosea seemed to pick up on the idea early doors.