SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

[shotski]

@exodusPolar vortex migrating to Siberia allowing heights to rise over Greenland and possible retrogression of uk high. It COULD be very interesting indeed and I'm sure Mr Murr is keeping an eye on it. 

Edited January 13, 2017 by shotski

[Methuselah]

A wee touch of sleety snow in the wind, just now. It could be a hairy night: frozen slush/ice inland and potential tidal flooding for those living by the coast...

[Paul77]

Tides here already 2.5m higher than they should be http://www.ntslf.org/data/realtime?port=Sheerness

Edited January 13, 2017 by Paul77

[mickeyb44]

17 severe flood warnings in place, not good at all.

And with regards to the models.....not good at all for 'proper' winter in the semi reliable timeframe. Credit to met office and ukmo model for not properly buying into the easterly

next week.

We managed a grass frost here last night at -0.5 c with ice crystals remaining on the temp sensor all day, and my weather station recorded its lowest wind chill at -6 c at 30 mph

Lets hope that next weekend its all change to something more 'winter'.......

Edited January 13, 2017 by mickeyb44

[Southender]

Meanwhile.....in Croatia.......25cm in 3 hours 

 

[seaside 60]

1 hour ago, tinybill said:

i do agree a bit   if the  wind  was  north   , or northeast  ,or east  yes  but  its blowing  of the  land  that should keep the  water  back, and i lived down this coast all my  life!!

Sorry have to totally disagree with you.

The main surge tide compenent is NW or N winds and I have worked on the water all my life....

As per now the tide is 2.21m over prediction.

The only good point is that its only 1 hour after low water.

[Delka]

This evenings high tide passed and was a very close call here. Sealife centre and other prone spots were just spared by the sea unlike in 2013. Everyone that went down to view stayed a reasonably distance back and was safe aswell, sea defences did there job and kept 75% of it all on the prom but waves hit the seawall and went straight up 35-4 feet in the air at times.

Unfortunately not looking as good for others further South down the coastline.. Good luck to those with property at risk, stay safe.

Edit: photos taken an hour before high tide, i was down the whole time and checked flood prone areas afterwards to make sure everything was good and nobody needed any help. Water rose to about a foot below the top of the seawall, was a close call indeed..

Edited January 13, 2017 by Delka

[Thunderstruck]

Stay safe everyone on the coast!

[JennyJane1]

2 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Stay safe everyone on the coast!

should be on its way here around now

[Paul77]

3 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

should be on its way here around now

way above prediction http://www.ntslf.org/data/realtime?port=Lowestoft

[seaside 60]

As far as I can tell the peak has gone from the Essex coast.

Its now dropped to 2.09m over prediction, which means its slowing down steadily. 

Lucky strike the main surge was over low water.

Chances are it will still be  big tide but not something that causes to much harm (fingers crossed).

[Great Plum]

Some light relief... (a little bit of rude words...)

 

[JennyJane1]

Reports of flooding coming in from Lowestoft area, a hotel and supermarket.

[Southender]

4 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

Some light relief... (a little bit of rude words...)

 

That page is legendary in these parts!

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, JennyJane1 said:

Reports of flooding coming in from Lowestoft area, a hotel and supermarket.

I think it was inevitable, given the conditions, JJ1...Shame on all those who've been writing it all off as hyperbole.

[JennyJane1]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

I think it was inevitable, given the conditions, JJ1...Shame on all those who've been writing it all off as hyperbole.

I'm trying to find out more, if that's right, then part of the town as well must be flooded.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

I'm trying to find out more, if that's right, then part of the town as well must be flooded.

I just hope that all those folks concerned heeded their warnings? And HT at Jaywick Sands isn't until about 12:15 am...Wake-up peeps, heed your warnings?

[snowsummer]

7 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

I'm trying to find out more, if that's right, then part of the town as well must be flooded.

Wherry hotel is flooded i just read jenny Jane

[Thunderstruck]

11 minutes ago, Southender said:

That page is legendary in these parts!

Indeed, always raises a laugh!

[JennyJane1]

1 minute ago, snowsummer said:

Wherry hotel is flooded i just read jenny Jane

ok, thanks, that must be the hotel, not sure if its Asda as well?

[SMU]

2 hours ago, shotski said:

@exodusPolar vortex migrating to Siberia allowing heights to rise over Greenland and possible retrogression of uk high. It COULD be very interesting indeed and I'm sure Mr Murr is keeping an eye on it. 

I am although I feel pretty tired of the winter already- this pic sums things up & this current let down- so much potential wasted yet again- at the best time of Winter -

a shift of 150 miles south west has totally removed the deep cold to be replaced with 'chilly' weather- scuppering our best chance of deep cold since 2010, infact what the models showed surface temp wise 2 days ago have probably only arrived in Kent on about 10 occasions ( covering over 3 days ) in the last 30 years-  

perspective wise if each winter is 90 days in 30 years of 2700 days we will be lucky to have observed 40 days of this type of deep cold condition - thats about 1.5% of the time- 

after this let down im ALMOST out of interesT...

 

 

 

[Lisa9982]

Any news on Jaywick? My sisters mother in law was collected earlier today and bought back to chelmsford but her bungalow is about 500 yards from the sea wall 

[Long haul to mild]

All the hi res models currently showing a period of potential (probably only temporary) snow on Sunday for parts of EA and the SE (esp Kent) as a weather front drops down into the entrenched cold air, Will be interesting to see how this pans out as time goes on.

 

 

On another note, hope all those on the coast stay safe tonight.

[JennyJane1]

3 minutes ago, Lisa9982 said:

Any news on Jaywick? My sisters mother in law was collected earlier today and bought back to chelmsford but her bungalow is about 500 yards from the sea wall 

I don't think jaywick will know for an hour or so

[Long haul to mild]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I am although I feel pretty tired of the winter already- this pic sums things up & this current let down- so much potential wasted yet again- at the best time of Winter -

a shift of 150 miles south west has totally removed the deep cold to be replaced with 'chilly' weather- scuppering our best chance of deep cold since 2010, infact what the models showed surface temp wise 2 days ago have probably only arrived in Kent on about 10 occasions ( covering over 3 days ) in the last 30 years-  

perspective wise if each winter is 90 days in 30 years of 2700 days we will be lucky to have observed 40 days of this type of deep cold condition - thats about 1.5% of the time- 

after this let down im ALMOST out of interesT...

 

 

 

It is immensely frustrating that every time we seem close to a great pattern setting up, something comes along to scupper it. 

Maybe we'll get a shot at a HP retrogression to Greenland a bit further down the line that could open up possibilities? Certainly some promise in the charts, but of course so far this winter promise has led to nothing........