SE & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 12/1/2017 11z ---->

[scottyuk]

Ampthill weather station now show Temp 2.6 DP 1.7

[VillagePlank]

GFS12z forecasting the position at 6pm to be the same as it is now. Looks to have it's timings a little bit mixed up. I can't believe that by 6pm there will not be falling snow in the SE. Could be wrong, I suppose ....

[SMU]

19 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

What are your views on snow to lover levels Steve? Is the PPN heavy enough for snow to settle on extremely wet ground?

Yes it would be if intensity sufficient enough as it brings the freezing level down-

the echoes at the moment suggest its looking good intensity wise

Anyone got the murr snow scale out there ive lost it

[Guest]

i dont understand the technical terms. Are the conditions better or worse than what was expected/predicted? Pleas help lol

[MONKEYJAM]

Temp 4.7 dp 4.6 ? Does that mean it will be foggy soon ?

[XLNC]

Woodley Reading Berkshire, getting dark temperature dropped to 4c and at 995mb falling rapidly.  Hopefully next 45 mins should start to see the change.

[Uxbridge90]

Just now, madmunch said:

i dont understand the technical terms. Are the conditions better or worse than what was expected/predicted? Pleas help lol

About expected, there should be a sharp drop in temperatures and dew points between 16:00 - 17:00

[Ben Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

GFS12z forecasting the position at 6pm to be the same as it is now. Looks to have it's timings a little bit mixed up. I can't believe that by 6pm there will not be falling snow in the SE. Could be wrong, I suppose ....

But isn't that between 3 & 6pm as opposed to at 6pm if you see what I mean? 

[Chris D]

1 minute ago, VillagePlank said:

GFS12z forecasting the position at 6pm to be the same as it is now. Looks to have it's timings a little bit mixed up. I can't believe that by 6pm there will not be falling snow in the SE. Could be wrong, I suppose ....

Well, it is the GFS we're talking about here

[VillagePlank]

Just now, madmunch said:

i dont understand the technical terms. Are the conditions better or worse than what was expected/predicted? Pleas help lol

About the same. In general terms for far SE, rain turns to snow by 6pm on higher ground, with it turning to snow at lower levels between 6pm and 9pm. To be fair, a nightmare forecasting situation with the main models simply not agreeing even at the 3-6 hour mark.

[stewfox]

2 minutes ago, VillagePlank said:

GFS12z forecasting the position at 6pm to be the same as it is now. Looks to have it's timings a little bit mixed up. I can't believe that by 6pm there will not be falling snow in the SE. Could be wrong, I suppose ....

I'm under the heavy snow band and still in the south east

Of course im 20 miles from Warwickshire so am a Midlander if they get snow

[VillagePlank]

Just now, Ben Blizzard said:

But isn't that between 3 & 6pm as opposed to at 6pm if you see what I mean? 

Well, yes, but still it is meant to representative of that period. I can't see that it will only be rain over London and the SE between now and 18:01z

[Let_it_snow]

Does anyone have any idea on chances of decent snow tonight in Norfolk. Doesnt look great for tonight if you like snow in my area. Please correct me if im wrong!

[Marie]

Temp rising here , slightly worried , gone back up to 6.4 

[Jezzer]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes it would be if intensity sufficient enough as it brings the freezing level down-

the echoes at the moment suggest its looking good intensity wise

Anyone got the murr snow scale out there ive lost it

Ahhh the Murr snow scale, legendary! Someone must have it

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I've got a cold; in other news, my nearest weather station on Weather Underground shows 997 hPa, 4.7C but an annoyingly high depoint of 3.9C, hence 93% relative humidity.  Winds almost non-existent from the west.

[kirk2]

Temps dropping more quickly now - down 0.4c in the last 15 minutes.

5.6c in Islington (DP 5.3) 996.5mb pressure

 

Edited January 12, 2017 by kirk2

[Canterbury Snow]

3 minutes ago, madmunch said:

i dont understand the technical terms. Are the conditions better or worse than what was expected/predicted? Pleas help lol

Better for us in Kent for sure! :-D tho you may get some :-)

[stewfox]

Just now, Marie said:

Temp rising here , slightly worried , gone back up to 6.4 

Turn your heating off ? every bit helps

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Just now, Marie said:

Temp rising here , slightly worried , gone back up to 6.4 

That's because you're still on the South side of the low.

[MONKEYJAM]

Dp went from 4.6c to 4.2 in 2 minutes 

[warrenb]

Totally still here, suspect near the eye of the circulation.

[Chris D]

Just now, Let_it_snow said:

Does anyone have any idea on chances of decent snow tonight in Norfolk. Doesnt look great for tonight if you like snow in my area. Please correct me if im wrong!

Well, I'm hoping to maybe see a flake or two in Norwich. Stranger things have happened, but the current forecast is for the heavier stuff to be further south. That is if things go to plan, though, and this appears to be an extremely unpredictable situation.

[Met4Cast]

Nothing but rain here so far, though not exactly unexpected - Think the Medway area will have to wait until 7ish, full transition to snow by 8pm, clearing around 9-10pm 

[Guest]

Is this is Steve?

 

Steve Murr

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Posted December 13, 2014 · Report post

So its quiet-

I thought id update the universal snow scale ( currently considering entry to wiki  ....)

 

0- Nothing / Nada / just curtain dust + flies around the outside light

NA
1- Odd pellet here & there- however we can mentally confirm there are 'flakes'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKyq5b9QCSU
2- visible light snow falling- not visible to the lampost yet ( unless you stand underneath & obscure the light)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnaHFK1BtEk
3- flurry level- makes light blue on the radar & a few flakes seen across the lamppost

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI0djWoGH9M
4- we can confirm snow falling without staring at the light- Can confirm to friends & loved ones its snowing via text etc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Njwf5MGpjkk
5- Status 2- moderate flurry, its fine snow at the moment still- it looks quite hard in terms of snow falling however its not amounting to anything

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlSFCEz8P24
6- proper flakes falling- you will see them now- the odd bigger flake mixed in with the moderate fine snow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xNk8kYZ7-8
7- transition to normal flakes all complete- moderate snow outside

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIlKVz5pD_Q
8- 20p flakes going at a steady pace now- accumulating around 0.5cm - 1cm per hour

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LofytcUcM-I
9- heavy 20p Snow - visibly accumulating + 1cm per hour

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OV16a63RrY
10- entry level heavy snow arriving- 50p flakes fluttering in the 20p flakes.. awaiting the beast...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m8lP29XsIMU
11- 50p flakes nearly transitioned over- we can call it heavy settling snow 2cm ++ per hour

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AA0RDmR6gpU
12- Very heavy snow inch per hour all 50p flakes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-K2Be9tbgw
13- Blizzard- combined with +40 MPH wind-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCyVsWazg6U

 

regards

S