South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->

[Dorsetbred]

Whora belter of a day. Up to 7.9°C at: 14:15, managed to get some good gardening time in.Glorious sunshine, after yesterdays murk, today was totally refreshing. As to this week, not really looking forward to the change to SW's and the gales/rain. This cold dry stuff I like, an it can keep that going until Spring.

Silverwolf, not so sure your memories hold a potential pattern for this winter. To me the winters have clearly changed in what happens over the UK and Europe, snow in southern spain, for the first time in 103 years, bet they're thinking the same as us, what's happened to winter! Personally, I've watched the decades go by the last few years, well, they are what they are, a possible way forward where the exception will be a winter with white precipitation. As much as the MAD forum rants on continually about "It's 240hours away" they need to wake and sniff the cold fresh air, it has been cold, at least down here.

 Is there a pattern, to be honest it's too early to tell, I feel.

Edited January 22, 2017 by Dorsetbred

[Mapantz]

4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Whora belter of a day. Up to 7.9°C at: 14:15, managed to get some good gardening time in.Glorious sunshine, after yesterdays murk, today was totally refreshing. As to this week, not really looking forward to the change to SW's and the gales/rain. This cold dry stuff I like, an it can keep that going until Spring.

It was mostly cloudy for much of the day here, just a bit of hazy sunshine from time to time, although I managed to get to 10°C

It's been a good spell of frosty weather, but it still hasn't been as cold as the end of Nov, beginning of Dec.

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It was mostly cloudy for much of the day here, just a bit of hazy sunshine from time to time, although I managed to get to 10°C

It's been a good spell of frosty weather, but it still hasn't been as cold as the end of Nov, beginning of Dec.

That's that damn micro-climate of yours, 2C above me, yet not so much sunshine, had you had that you could have seen even higher temps.

See the cold has been there on  & off during the winter as you pointed out, for Nov & Dec.

[Andy Bown]

44 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Whora belter of a day. Up to 7.9°C at: 14:15, managed to get some good gardening time in.Glorious sunshine, after yesterdays murk, today was totally refreshing. As to this week, not really looking forward to the change to SW's and the gales/rain. This cold dry stuff I like, an it can keep that going until Spring.

 

I'm not sure the gales/rain are going to turn up anytime soon. Fax charts show fronts still well to the West in the Atlantic on Thursday with the block holding pretty firm. Personally it looks a week's time at the earliest that a front might arrive.

[SilverWolf]

58 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

 

Silverwolf, not so sure your memories hold a potential pattern for this winter. To me the winters have clearly changed in what happens over the UK and Europe, snow in southern spain, for the first time in 103 years, bet they're thinking the same as us, what's happened to winter! Personally, I've watched the decades go by the last few years, well, they are what they are, a possible way forward where the exception will be a winter with white precipitation. As much as the MAD forum rants on continually about "It's 240hours away" they need to wake and sniff the cold fresh air, it has been cold, at least down here.

 Is there a pattern, to be honest it's too early to tell, I 

Yeah you're right. I guess the climate is changing at a rate the advances in technology can't quite keep up with.. 

[matt111]

Another hard frost this morning after a low of -2.1°C. Got up to 8.7°C today and with no wind which felt quite pleasant in the sun though still very cold in the shade. Now 3.1°C and dropping very quickly.

Edited January 22, 2017 by matt111

[khodds]

47 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

I'm not sure the gales/rain are going to turn up anytime soon. Fax charts show fronts still well to the West in the Atlantic on Thursday with the block holding pretty firm. Personally it looks a week's time at the earliest that a front might arrive.

I agree. It's just being pushed further back - it's great! I hate wind and rain! Though we may regret saying it later in the year

[jethro]

3 hours ago, SilverWolf said:

Afternoon, hope everyone is enjoying the dry weather..

Wanted to share a few thoughts about this winter, and my childhood memories of the winters in the 80's, see if they resonate with anyone else. I can't remember the specific years (growing up in Gloucester) but in my memory there seemed to a theme in the cold, snowy winters perhaps a little similar to this one. I remember cold, dry early winters, with fog and frosts from the off, sometimes from November, interspersed with milder days with rain, then colder days with light snow showers and sun. If I remember right this pattern would often be before Christmas, usually with a mild green Christmas Day. The real cold would only appear after, from mid January through to end febuary, with half a foot of snow for lasting for a week being fairly normal, often starting with heavy rain turning to snow ( which is why I never worry about snow settling if it rains first - if the temp drop is high enough), and then milder bits as well.

This winter for me feels like a long drawn out version of those memories - we've had dry, pretty cold with some hard frosts, some snow showers, some mild and rain. I'm wondering (very in-scientifically) if the possibility of a decent cold spell, with reasonable amounts of lying snow is still possible this winter, even early March. I've frequently read the MOD thread, and all I can pick up is how inaccurate the models have been mid-long range. I'm as sick of 'winter is over' as much as 'day 10 is amazing for deep cold/snow/easterly holy grail. Perhaps the fragmented memories of my 'winters of old' may prove to hold a potential pattern for the long drawn out saga this winter? Probably not, but am intrigued if this 'feels' like anyone else's memories of proper winters past, irrespective of the model 'facts' past and present? Anyway ramble over. I very much like this winter, lots of frost and dry - I'm a landscape gardener! 

Afternoon, as I grew up in the Cotswolds in the 1970'-80's I thought I'd reply. Personally, I'm not too sure memories are all that reliable, all of us tend to remember some things more than others, it's just human nature. I remember Halloween & Bonfire night were often cold and frosty, don't know whether the records would back my memories though. The run up to Christmas seemed to more often than not be cold and frosty, with it turning mild and often wet in time for the festivities. So, nothing new there then.... Personally speaking, I don't remember much in the way of snow ever happening to any great depth before Christmas, the odd sprinkling if you were lucky. Winter proper in terms of snowfall never seemed to get going until after the new year, usually end of January into February - 1981/82 being the exception and a spectacular one at that, still the best and longest lasting snow I've ever experienced. From memory, the biggest and latest snowfall that hung around for a bit was Easter 1975, probably sticks in my memory as Good Friday was my mums' birthday and as far as I was concerned she'd had the best present ever getting a good 8inches of snow - she wasn't convinced.

 

I'm from farming stock and there used to be the old farm records at home, going back to the early 1800's, I used them and the weather as a topic for one of my A'levels so went through them in great detail. Although there wasn't specifics like daily temperature records (although they'd crop up every now and then, presumably someone got a new thermometer, the records lasted until they dropped and broke it or they got bored) but what they did record were dates of first & last frost of the season, whether it had been a wet or dry one, droughts, etc. What showed up more than anything was how weather types, seasonal averages seemed to come in groups; there'd be a few cold snowy winters, followed by a few with little or no snow, a run of mild, wet winters followed by a run of cold, dry ones. There was also quite a bit of grumbling in the diaries, bemoaning the lack of rain and the result it would have on the harvest and also quite a lot of complaining that 'winters aren't what they used to be when I were a lad' and how the mild weather and lack of frost would cause mayhem in the spring if the bugs weren't killed off. Personally speaking,

 

Personally speaking I can't see a whole lot has changed since then. We've got better at studying the weather drivers, or at least the ones we know about but I maintain there's a whole lot more we don't know or understand. If we did know then we'd have much better accuracy in the long term forecasts. Climate change means there are changes afoot but quite how that will impact upon us remains to be seen, clearly there's still an awful lot of winter cold to be had, hence Europe going into the freezer with snow cropping up in odd places. Climate change hasn't stopped winter cold and if it's made it less cold then I can't see there's a lot of difference between -10 and -11, it's still cold! As for us not getting cold because of the arctic ice levels, possibly, possibly not. There's been a great big cold blob of water in the Atlantic in recent years, one theory was that it will moderate the temps of westerly weather, cooling it and making us more likely to get snow. Then there's the theory it will send the cold weather further south and we'll be milder. I guess you've just got to take a bit of a stab in the dark until the evidence becomes clearer. I reckon we'll still get cold winter weather, including snow. I also reckon there's an awful lot more of winter to get through yet before we can rule out getting some this year.

 

I'll stop rambling now.....

 

And if you're interested in weather history, here's a couple of great sites

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/wxevents.htm

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

Edited January 22, 2017 by jethro
To include links.

[Frosty hollows]

18 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Interesting to see Bournemouth airport at 1.4°C, there must be cloud that way, as its usually two or three degrees lower than me. Benson at -7.1°C

It got down to -7.9 here last night. I, however, was in Penzance where it was 11C warmer! -1.8 C already here and getting foggy. The M4 around Swindon wasn't wonderful! Lost count of how many consecutive days of frost we've had ( apologies frost hunters!)

[festivalking]

No frost last night. Beautiful day here. Currently 2.2c.

[festivalking]

God no. Got snow forecast for here on Thursday. Already prepared for the disappointment......

[karlos1983]

What warm up 

[SilverWolf]

2 hours ago, jethro said:

here's a couple of great sites

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/wxevents.htm

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

Thanks for that, and the links, v interesting 

[matt111]

Even though it had a lot further to fall today it's reached freezing much earlier tonight than last night. Shows what a difference the slightest bit of cloud makes.

[karlos1983]

-2.1c thanks to lack of cloud.

not looking forward to my foggy commute to  Chichester in the morning. 

 

[Mapantz]

-1°C currently, temp has been rising too. I can see thick fog all around, but it hasn't managed to come in to my area yet.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Cloudy but frost on cars . Calm. Temperature on the rise 2·2c.

[jethro]

It's much warmer here tonight, currently 0c after a high of 6.1 today.

[matt111]

Temperature did go up a but for a while but now it's dropped to -1.4°C. No fog here.

[Mapantz]

Quite possibly, the foggiest I have seen it at night:

[matt111]

Turned foggy here now. Not as fog as where you are by the looks of it @Mapantz

-0.9°C

Edited January 23, 2017 by matt111

[Dorsetbred]

Mornin all, currently -1.2°C (29.8°F), Apparent temp -3.0°C with freezing fog.

[karlos1983]

Morning 

-1.9c and freezing fog. 

Monday go away 

 

[knocker]

Clear, fresh morning. Temp +4C and a light south easterly

[Dorsetbred]

(In the Poole/Bournemouth area) It's like a flippn' skating rink out there this morning so be careful peeps. Side roads are very icy & pavements, well I gave up and walked on the roads it was less dangerous.

Was watching the "diamond dust" falling  @05:30 this morning, and it certainly has made things very icy.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Dorsetbred