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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->

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I can confirm a wintry mix here, big splats of wet snow mixed in. :)

22.4mm of rain too.

Edited by Mapantz

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1 minute ago, Gibby said:

I think we can almost write off anything below about 500-600ft now. The Mendip tops along with Exmoor could see a bit but I think the fun will be much more towards the higher ground of the SE as we move through the evening. For us the current rain/sleet will slowly diminish with clearer skies later this evening. The undercut of cold here in the SW was not quick enough or strong enough and it's only now that the Low which is still deepening rapidly sucks in more cold the SE may well fair better which in fairness was indicated from the Met this morning. While the temperature has fallen markedly here over the last couple of hours it is still 4C and would need to drop a couple more degrees here at least before sleet would develop. Mind you I know I'm only at at around 300ft asl here which is why I think the Mendip Plain might be lucky before it stops. Cant see a winter wonderland though even there from this event.

Agreeed.

I think the high res modelling and Meto forecasts have, broadly, been pretty good for our region.

Whether the snowfall forecasts for the SE over the next few hours materialises is too be discovered, but that's not this threads region so who cares.  Lol.

Those on the highest ground of the SW & West Country still have something to cling too, but otherwise I'm just wishing this crap through now asap please.

I'm a little more positive about seeing some snow showers following on behind, tonight, for some of us though.  

Will be interesting to see what the 12z modelling thinks of that prospect this evening.

I concur with @Catacol earlier too, plenty of colder weather to look forward to again towards the second half of next week as things stand.  Cold & dry vastly favoured at the moment, but we all know PPN distribution is a short term forecast only.

A least, after this rain/sleet, there is very little Atlantic rainfall forecast for the foreseeable.  Drifting off here anyway, back to blowing this crud SE.

All together now.............  blow!

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Still sleet and although it is almost conducive for snow the ppn is gradually getting ligher as it turns so I think even the Mendip tops will be green by morning unless we see a little more intensification of ppn towards back edge before it clears. :cray::wallbash:

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1.5 c fall in last hr. wet snow on the hills and sleety rain further down. Should be full snow with height in the next 20 mins. Here in north Dorset 

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I bet the minute its cold enough to snow is when the ppn will clear. 

Still some interest for some light snow tonight / tomorrow.

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A little bit of sleet in with the rain now and temperature dropped about 3C in the last hour.Not sure if the snow will make it here though!

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For CS England the complications arise as the developing LP backs the flow ahead of it and then the broad scale NW flow runs into it - the convergence should enhance the convection along a line drawn SW-NE and if that's heavy enough it could lower the freezing level sufficiently for a bit of snow.

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Occasionally sleety here in bath

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1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

1.5 c fall in last hr. wet snow on the hills and sleety rain further down. Should be full snow with height in the next 20 mins. Here in north Dorset 

Yep, sleet starting to turn to snow here in Blandford as I'm watching..........:D 

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Its snowing!! 

Temp 2.4c. Dewpoint 1.7c.

Edited by Mark N

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1 minute ago, Singularity said:

For CS England the complications arise as the developing LP backs the flow ahead of it and then the broad scale NW flow runs into it - the convergence should enhance the convection along a line drawn SW-NE and if that's heavy enough it could lower the freezing level sufficiently for a bit of snow.

Interesting because it's looking like it's slowly getting more intense. So the front should slow then from now ?

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1 minute ago, fromey said:

Occasionally sleety here in bath

Hi Fromey - I'm at the Uni - not really seen much yet but still hoping!

 

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Just now, Singularity said:

For CS England the complications arise as the developing LP backs the flow ahead of it and then the broad scale NW flow runs into it - the convergence should enhance the convection along a line drawn SW-NE and if that's heavy enough it could lower the freezing level sufficiently for a bit of snow.

How central is that central bit? Any chance it could include some of us here in the west?

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I can confirm that here in NE Wilts it's gone very quickly from heavy rain to sleet and now snow :)

 

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6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

For CS England the complications arise as the developing LP backs the flow ahead of it and then the broad scale NW flow runs into it - the convergence should enhance the convection along a line drawn SW-NE and if that's heavy enough it could lower the freezing level sufficiently for a bit of snow.

 
 

Being further East than most in here, I like the sound of that, Singularity. Understandably, there is a certain level of trepidation in here with regards, snow predictions but I'd say the precipitation is clearing SE more slowly than the latest media forecasts indicate, increasing the window of opportunity for many more of us, especially those with elevation on their side. 3.4c and falling plus a falling rapidly barometer trend according to my Davis.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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So looks like the line in the sand is north and south of wiltshire then!

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2 minutes ago, jethro said:

How central is that central bit? Any chance it could include some of us here in the west?

The low on observations seems a bit far south for you but with events like this it's hard to rule anything out entirely - you have more of the cold air aloft after all.

Most high-res model guidance has placed The Solent as the turning point which means I too might get left out in the... wet.

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1 minute ago, wiltshire weather said:

I can confirm that here in NE Wilts it's gone very quickly from heavy rain to sleet and now snow :)

 

Interesting that it is rain all around here but snow behind and ahead of us. Shows the altitude coming into play I guess? And perhaps intensity?

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....................aaaand it's snowing! :D

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Snowing and windy here, at last nice to see, don't know how long its going to last tho:yahoo:

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