South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->

[ARTDEMOLE]

Bright and breezy. 5.3c.Chilly...

[Frosty_wsm]

I wonder what gibby thinks of the models now considering  he posted in the mod thread a few days ago stating he fully expected the jet to ride over the top pushing low pressure over and sinking the high and bathing the uk in mild south westerly winds. Must admit I did find that statement odd at the time as it went against all the background signals, we're in a much better position now than we were back when some nice charts were showing in late November for December which all but imploded as we know. 

Unless he was just concentrating on the ECM which has been woeful in handling the high pressure over Scandinavia and has made a big move towards the other big models in the shorter term this morning, yes it still sinks the high in the lated outputs but none of the other big guns do and as nick Sussex said in the mod thread the sinking high scenario goes against all the background signals. 

Anyway we shall see but things are looking up at the moment. 

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, Smartie said:

I wonder what gibby thinks of the models now considering  he posted in the mod thread a few days ago stating he fully expected the jet to ride over the top pushing low pressure over and sinking the high and bathing the uk in mild south westerly winds. Must admit I did find that statement odd at the time as it went against all the background signals, we're in a much better position now than we were back when some nice charts were showing in late November for December which all but imploded as we know. 

Unless he was just concentrating on the ECM which has been woeful in handling the high pressure over Scandinavia and has made a big move towards the other big models in the shorter term this morning, yes it still sinks the high in the lated outputs but none of the other big guns do and as nick Sussex said in the mod thread the sinking high scenario goes against all the background signals. 

Anyway we shall see but things are looking up at the moment. 

I dare say he was just interpreting what he thought most likely at the time given with information at hand. The form horse would have been for the jet to ride over the top as often is the case?

We all got hoodwinked back in November but I remember Gibby was never convinced, swings and round abouts.. lets hope the swing is firmly in our favor this time! 

Otherwise I may have to go abroad again 

[warmintim]

TBH as ever there is still time for things to changes. It's very likely now that we will have an easterly of some sort and looking good for some very cold air (static cold pool?) Whether that will lead to the holy grail for many on here in winter of snow (the more the better) is not clear or realistically possible to say. From memory (which I'll admit is rubbish in my case) I am a bit biased against easterlies as in my youth they always seemed to give oodles of snow for the east (and south-east) but were just cold and dry in poor old Wiltshire. I recall one winter driving from a snowless wilts to Lewes and watching as the snow levels got higher and higher. Jealous and the drive back was worse in a way - watching the snow levels get less...

[Rich_Clements]

A nice chilly start to the day, sunrise was nice although thats noticably later now. Ice on untreated roads from water coming out of the verge from last weeks rain.

 

 

[Nights King]

Well I wasnt expecting that... just had a heavy burst of sleet with occasional wet flake but now mainly rain with a touch of sleet.

Now just rain

Edited February 6, 2017 by Nights King

[matt111]

Just taken the dog out whilst it wasn't raining. The winds certainly got a bite to it. 

[MidnightSnow]

For once can one of these precip charts be correct. Waking up to snow falling this Sunday morning would be perfect 

[jy]

Quote

 

Just got in from not the most inspiring day doing my gardening work,face a bit glum,thought have a look in the model thread.ive now got to go to A&E to have both my sides stitched up from the levels of laughter I suffered,oh my days its the weather lol

[Nights King]

1 hour ago, MidnightSnow said:

For once can one of these precip charts be correct. Waking up to snow falling this Sunday morning would be perfect 

We all wish that chart was correct!

Im guessing that chart if it came to fruition would just be sporadic snow flurries though drifting through as that ppn chart over does signal.

[Mapantz]

A bit damp out there!

Spoken to the German retailers who I bought the Davis weather station from, they are going to send me a new anemometer (again) and want me to send the old one back, so they can repair it. I've asked them to let me know what is wrong with it. 
I have done some searching, and it looks to be an issue with the potentiometer - the part that reads wind direction. 

At least it won't cost me.

[Dorsetbred]

32 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A bit damp out there!

Spoken to the German retailers who I bought the Davis weather station from, they are going to send me a new anemometer (again) and want me to send the old one back, so they can repair it. I've asked them to let me know what is wrong with it. 
I have done some searching, and it looks to be an issue with the potentiometer - the part that reads wind direction. 

At least it won't cost me.

Well that's good news it wont cost. What an antiquated way to determine positional sensing using a pot!

Useful check info for confirming the pot is faulty I found here..

http://www.lexingtonwx.com/anemometer/

You really would have thought they could have used positional sensing and not something that will naturally degrade, as the carbon wears out and gets bad spots..

Edited February 6, 2017 by Dorsetbred

[festivalking]

Really mild here 8.7c. Can't quite believe we're going to go from that to max day time Temps of just 2c over the weekend. With the suggestion of the weather being cloudy with a stern breeze. It's going to feel the coldest of the winter so far.

Agree with nightsking saying no more than flurries at the moment for the weekend!

[matt111]

6.4°C here and it's been raining all evening so far. Doesn't feel that mild outside with the cold breeze and rain. 

[khodds]

What a horrible afternoon that was! Icy cold, lashing rain.. brrrr!! 6c here and it feels colder. Glad I'm now tucked up on the warm. 

[Mapantz]

25 minutes ago, festivalking said:

It's going to feel the coldest of the winter so far.

I'll bet a pound that it won't be here!

Minimum temps don't look anywhere near as cold as they did a few weeks ago, or the end of Nov/early Dec for that matter.

I can't think of anything worse than an Easterly that just creates overcast days. I'm certainly not looking forward to it!

[festivalking]

48 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'll bet a pound that it won't be here!

Minimum temps don't look anywhere near as cold as they did a few weeks ago, or the end of Nov/early Dec for that matter.

I can't think of anything worse than an Easterly that just creates overcast days. I'm certainly not looking forward to it!

Inter regional variations! 

Edited February 6, 2017 by festivalking

[karlos1983]

11 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

Yes I think you did say that but you were #issed @ the timeso that doesn't count..

Damn thought I'd got away with that haha

[Rich_Clements]

Good morning all,a bit cooler than my weather app suggested this morning which stated 6c when in fact it was nearer 3c 

Anyway another stunning cloudless sunrise. 

[Dorsetbred]

Mornin all, a bright sunny morning, but everything is soaked from yesterdays rainfall. Currently 4.5°C (40.1°F), Apparent temp 3.1°C.

As to the colder outlook, hmm, I still think it'll downgrade yet.

[festivalking]

Looking likely for our first ice day here on Friday! Highest temperature at Princetown could be -1C! 

Snow potential is minimal but looking at the temps / dew points etc etc the window of opportunity locally will be Friday to Sunday. As ever we'll get the right conditions for snow but the missing ingredient - precipitation will be absent!

Touch less cold next week but still not exactly mild.

 

[jtay]

Beautiful day today. The mist didn't hang around long, first thing.

[DanDorsetUK]

So long everyone won't be coming back. Going back to the old trusted methods of waking up and sticking your head out the window to see what the weather is doing. Never ever will I look at the model thread again. What a complete and utter embarrassment and waste of precious time! We've gone from Snowmageddon BOOOOM and 1 in 50-100 year event to oh look it's just a normal average cold spell. Why spend wasted hours looking at models 4x a day when it's never right anyway! Bloody ridiculous. Time to go back to old methods always worked well. So long and good luck everyone!

[festivalking]

37 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

So long everyone won't be coming back. Going back to the old trusted methods of waking up and sticking your head out the window to see what the weather is doing. Never ever will I look at the model thread again. What a complete and utter embarrassment and waste of precious time! We've gone from Snowmageddon BOOOOM and 1 in 50-100 year event to oh look it's just a normal average cold spell. Why spend wasted hours looking at models 4x a day when it's never right anyway! Bloody ridiculous. Time to go back to old methods always worked well. So long and good luck everyone!

The models are and have been fickle and change greatly at anytime.  I like viewing the models seeing how they evolve and change on a regular basis. Questioning why has it changed, its fascinating. Yes I only view them in the winter but I find winter weather the most interesting where it be a winter storm, snow, fog or raging BBQ type weather! The MAD thread would be good if it was just full of informed posters who discussed the changing charts not as if their life depended on a particular weather event.

Then there are WUM's (Wind Up Merchants) who go in to stir it up. Personally I hate the reference BOOM 9 times out of 10 this "BOOM" reference never happens. Some posters just see a cold easterly or cold north wester AT 200hrs and assume that COBRA will be called. If a BOOM call verified every time we'd be snowed in for 3 months! It sends the wrong message out. No wonder people get fed up quickly outlandish predictions!

Models never get it right all year round. In the other 3 seasons (yes weather does exist outside D-F) of the year fronts supposedly coming in from the west (or any direction) change track, intensity etc etc. But because its not snow the majority of posters don't notice, is bothered or don't care. That's the weather that's what it does. The models are a guide nothing more nothing less!

So don't give up hope mate. Just work out which posters are worth following and look out for there posts and discount the rest.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2017 by festivalking

[Dorsetbred]

I love this comment from the MAD thread just 5mins ago, where SM said "This threads a joke sometimes. Its like the BBC snowatch from 2001. All we need is Bill Farkin & hus grebes & seaweed."

Now there's a thing, switch models off and revert to seaweed....

Rapado, (If you're still here)living where you do, you'll learn to be patient when people discuss the weather and white stuff. I've lived here 60+ years and of course the chance would be nice of something unusual, but we are where we are, and this area certainly post 90's is largely a white stuff free zone, BUT we do have the benefit of Spanish Plumes in the summer which make up for all this wintery nonsense.. Hang in there the best season is yet to come (Summer I mean...)

Edited February 7, 2017 by Dorsetbred