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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester

Hope it does too!! Woke at 4 and there was nothing, but just took the dogs out and we have snow cover!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

I think the big band is far enough west to hit us later, 0700-0730 ish

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Wintry showers of hail and rain are the order of the day on a strong northerly wind At the moment that is gusting 45mph and with a temp of 6C I don't think I will be venturing very far, It's worth a quick glance at the Camborne 00 sounding which is good example of being in an unstable Arctic airstream. Tropopause down to 431mb. :shok:

2017011300.03808.skewt.parc.gif2mwindchill_d02_21.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Fair to Foul...
  • Location: Peasedown St John.N.E.Somerset

Well scored with snow now. Breeze is blowing it all over.  Lamp post is doing well

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
3 hours ago, Mark N said:

As expected the Cotswolds and the even longer track from NW eventualy meant the showers fizzled out. Few flakes in the wind. 

Seen by the radar in space of 20-40 mins. 

 

IMG_1577.PNG IMG_1578.PNGIMG_1579.PNG

 

 

Typical. Missed even a sprinkle by 5 miles again. At least I didn't waste time staying up to see it fail.

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL

Heavy snow here in Frome

Setting very quickly

Coming just from one shower .

 

IMG_5282.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Poole Dorset
  • Location: Poole Dorset
1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Looks like the band of ppn is quite a bit further west than thought and arriving quite a few hours earlier. Could be a few suprises I think.

Yes seems to me the band is heading directly south good luck to all in its path.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
4 minutes ago, offerman said:

Heavy snow here in Frome

Setting very quickly

Coming just from one shower .

 

IMG_5282.PNG

Same shower blowing through Warminster, only the 3rd time in nearly 4 years living in this house that there has been a dusting.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Looks like the band of ppn is quite a bit further west than thought and arriving quite a few hours earlier. Could be a few suprises I think.

 

1 hour ago, Zephyr said:

South glos gap holding strong at the moment hope it fills in

is it me or is the main band coming down the UK a bit more west than forecast? 

Yeah it is! Taking a look at models it's quite a lot further west. Think it is predicted to swing off to the east mind, but we live in hope!

Attached is Arpege, Euro 4 and Hirlam respectively - Euro 4 is slightly behind as its only 6 hour intervals, but looks closer to the mark than the other two!

IMG_5088.GIF

IMG_5089.GIF

IMG_5090.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

The band coming down from the North at the moment is not only slightly further west but seems to be moving slightly faster then anticipated also it's already an hour a head it seems

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Zephyr said:

The band coming down from the North at the moment is not only slightly further west but seems to be moving slightly faster then anticipated also it's already an hour a head it seems

Looks to be intensifying as well

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
1 minute ago, Zephyr said:

The band coming down from the North at the moment is not only slightly further west but seems to be moving slightly faster then anticipated also it's already an hour a head it seems

Do however expect it to swing round the East and move SEwards in the coming hours! More Eastern members may get a covering but even with it being further west, I don't think I have much of a chance!

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

Can see where it'd going to veer off east soon on the overlays can hope and keep everything crossed though! :rofl:

11111111.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Looks like the showers over night made it across from wales as we have a covering of snow!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

Going to be strange today not checking weather maps charts and apps every 5 minutes. Cold breezy and clear here.

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

big fat zilch here.. oh well. Looks like next week is being watered down too now, or am I wrong? 

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
2 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Can see where it'd going to veer off east soon on the overlays can hope and keep everything crossed though! :rofl:

11111111.png

 

 

Even if it did make it here, it's still 4C somehow, so would definitely be rain. That's up from earlier in the night, why weather gods why?

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
44 minutes ago, dec10snow said:

 

Yeah it is! Taking a look at models it's quite a lot further west. Think it is predicted to swing off to the east mind, but we live in hope!

Attached is Arpege, Euro 4 and Hirlam respectively - Euro 4 is slightly behind as its only 6 hour intervals, but looks closer to the mark than the other two!

IMG_5088.GIF

IMG_5089.GIF

IMG_5090.GIF

NMM 00z take on the situation - band further west as it moves South and predominantly snow:

nmmuk-42-11-0.png

Puts me just inside the band. However, NMM 00z didn't really identify any of the showers that have fallen west of here overnight and are falling now:

nmmuk-42-7-0.png

This may suggest that it is underplaying the extent somewhat in those areas. Also current track is further South (about an hour ahead) than modelled on this run.

EDIT - BBC Graphics have updated, but even though they have backdated to 6am, they don't accurately represent the precipitation that was falling at that time, so not much confidence in their forecast, which has all the snow this morning in the south-east again, in direct conflict with the metoffice graphic in the post above.

Current temperature -0.3C following overnight minimum of -0.4C.

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Snowing again!!

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