ajpoolshark

South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->

1,204 posts in this topic

So, here we are, and what will tomorrow bring us?....rain?....a bit of sleet? or simply a snowstorm of 'the day after tomorrow' proportions?

To find out, this thread is the place to be so pull up a chair, pour yourself a beer, top shelf spirit or maybe a pint of proper scrumpy and watch the drama unfold

For historical purposes the old thread (the snowless one) can be found at the following link but who cares about an old thread when we can ramp about snow in this one!

 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

   3 minutes ago,  Ali1977 said: 

Looks better to me with snow snow further west which gives chance for a more prolonged event - I may be wrong

 

Yes looks to clear the se later on the GFS 12z. It's minimal but with 2 more runs to come, we could be in eh

 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also the GFS 0.25 shows signs of a wee upgrade. So interest definitely remains

time for my 2 hours journey home. Let's hope tomorrow it's a snowy one. 

Edited by karlos1983
1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Low dewpoints now, will be irrelevant to what occurs tomorrow. The dewpoints will increase significantly as the moisture increases anyway, associated with tomorrows feature. You'll want to see dewpoints decrease tomorrow afternoon/early evening, when the wind direction changes to the Northwest, and the colder air starts to wrap around- decreasing wetbulb temperatures and a lowering of the zero degree isotherm.

viewimage.png viewimage (1).png

viewimage (2).png viewimage (3).png

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Low dewpoints now, will be irrelevant to what occurs tomorrow. The dewpoints will increase significantly as the moisture increases anyway, associated with tomorrows feature. You'll want to see dewpoints decrease tomorrow afternoon/early evening, when the wind direction changes to the Northwest, and the colder air starts to wrap around- decreasing wetbulb temperatures and a lowering of the zero degree isotherm.

viewimage.png viewimage (1).png

viewimage (2).png viewimage (3).png

Going to go town to the wire this one :crazy::help:

If I could bank my met office forecast now I would I dread to think what it will look like by morning :cray:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest GFS 12z, PPN charts only, haven't yet had time to look at other factors;

21-574.gif

24-574.gif27-574.gif

30-574.gif

33-574.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This morning's GFS had the back edge exiting Kent at ~21:00hrs.

06ZGFS21hrs.png

The lastest shows it hanging on, which can only be a good thing if we trace back through the missing hours inbetween frames.

Small steps, but the trend over the last 24hrs has been to slow things down to my eyes.

12ZGFS21hrs.png

2 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Afternoon all, I'm taking solace from the fact that the temp/dew point here today is colder than forecast/expected to be. Currently it's 4.2c with a dew point of -1.3c; I know it'll rise as the rain comes in tomorrow but if the forecast is a couple of degrees out (as it is today), those 2 degrees could make all the difference between wet & white.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes I've got a fist full of straws.

4 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, jethro said:

Afternoon all, I'm taking solace from the fact that the temp/dew point here today is colder than forecast/expected to be. Currently it's 4.2c with a dew point of -1.3c; I know it'll rise as the rain comes in tomorrow but if the forecast is a couple of degrees out (as it is today), those 2 degrees could make all the difference between wet & white.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes I've got a fist full of straws.

There is only one straw I'll need by mid afternoon Thursday... :drunk-emoji:

 

STRAW.jpg 

 

Edited by Nights King
3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

latest apps have downgraded me to sleet :wallbash:

I think its slipping away a wee bit down here towards a rain event what with what i've heard....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, festivalking said:

latest apps have downgraded me to sleet :wallbash:

I think its slipping away a wee bit down here towards a rain event what with what i've heard....

If that happens it'll be large JD's all round.

Life can be so cruel.

3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest 12z Hirlam has a all rain event, even in the SE;

hirlamuk-42-24-0.png

hirlamuk-42-27-0.png

Although it does show snow on Dartmoor.  Lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have gone from heavy snow to a longer period of light on the latest BBC...It has changed loads today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, AWD said:

Latest 12z Hirlam has a all rain event, even in the SE;

hirlamuk-42-24-0.png

hirlamuk-42-27-0.png

Although it does show snow on Dartmoor.  Lol.

Must be on the north moor after all it does get above 2000ft there....way above my altitude! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jo Farrow has just posted in the cold spell thread with maps outlining the general thoughts for tomorrow. This entire area comes in the sleet/snow risk.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, AWD said:

Latest 12z Hirlam has a all rain event, even in the SE;

hirlamuk-42-24-0.png

hirlamuk-42-27-0.png

Although it does show snow on Dartmoor.  Lol.

hmm, what those charts show is rain up to 4pm, and nothing about afterwards (even the gfs has snow after 3pm) so not reading much into those charts to be honest....As has been mentioned bu numerous folk in the meteorological fraternity, it's an evolving situation which is too difficult to call, it will be a 'nowcast' scenario without any doubt

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

However, on Friday the 12z Hirlam shows PPN over the West Country and with conditions a lot less marginal on Friday, this would be snow for the majority (most likely in the form of flurries);

Ihirlamuk-42-35-0.png

hirlamuk-42-37-0.png

hirlamuk-42-38-0.png

Hands up who is doing an all-nighter tomorrow night??  Lol.

3 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is looking good along with the UKMO at present, no drama at the moment

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, AWD said:

However, on Friday the 12z Hirlam shows PPN over the West Country and with conditions a lot less marginal on Friday, this would be snow for the majority (most likely in the form of flurries);

Ihirlamuk-42-35-0.png

hirlamuk-42-37-0.png

hirlamuk-42-38-0.png

Hands up who is doing an all-nighter tomorrow night??  Lol.

Now that is interesting, the GFS did show some shower activinty but more cornwall - this again looks good for early fri morning over wilts/bristol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hang on, upgrade alert............  wait 3mins and the charts will follow.........

The 12z Arome model has hill snow from the word go for the SW moors;

aromehd-1-25-0.png

It also has the PPN much further south than the GFS which is a good thing for our region;

aromehd-1-26-0.png

aromehd-1-27-0.png

aromehd-1-28-0.png

Snow for much of the West Country with the exception of coastal areas.  

Note the heavier PPN is advertised as snowfall rather than the lighter PPN, indictive of evaporate cooling.

This would be an better outcome IMBY.

Edited by AWD
4 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel sick. When can I get off this roller coaster? 

7 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, khodds said:

I feel sick. When can I get off this roller coaster? 

March.

4 people like this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, khodds said:

I feel sick. When can I get off this roller coaster? 

i have a heart arrhythmia going on right now, best i call in sick tomorrow!! dam i cant i forgot i work in a hospital:rofl:  

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Crazy - now bbc have 3 hours of heavy snow and 4 of light............game on, thats a big upgrade

Edit - and snow shower fri maorning....boom

Edited by Ali1977

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, AWD said:

However, on Friday the 12z Hirlam shows PPN over the West Country and with conditions a lot less marginal on Friday, this would be snow for the majority (most likely in the form of flurries);

Ihirlamuk-42-35-0.png

hirlamuk-42-37-0.png

hirlamuk-42-38-0.png

Hands up who is doing an all-nighter tomorrow night??  Lol.

:good:ME 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now