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Cold Spell 11th January onwards


Nick L

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6 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

As soon as London is forecast a bit of wintery weather. It's mass news.

The media is going crazy Why. That's the M25 closed then with 2cm of slush.

If London got snow like parts of Northern Scotland get the country would be Bankrupt. 

There's a big difference between sparsely populated, rural northern Scotland and the most heavily populated urban area in Europe. Yes, we over dramatise small amounts of snow...almost anywhere in the UK, however it's because we are ill-prepared. I haven't seen settling snow since 2013. 

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It looks like I will miss most of this snow, which suits me as I want to be able to get to work. Ideally though I would like there to be snow cover over the Peaks for the weekend so I can get out and about in it.

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1 hour ago, sorepaw1 said:

As soon as London is forecast a bit of wintery weather. It's mass news.

The media is going crazy Why. That's the M25 closed then with 2cm of slush.

If London got snow like parts of Northern Scotland get the country would be Bankrupt. 

If London got snow like Northern Scotland then they'd bring in the infrastructure to deal with it.

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31 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

An awkward mix of rain, sleet, and snow hitting at possibly the worst possible time.... rush hour

Untitled.png

A nightmare for forecasters to pinpoint exactly where the boundary between mild and cold air will be

Yep, a lot of respect to those who are putting their reputations on the line! Wouldn't want to be in charge of forecasting this setup :cold:

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13 hours ago, The Enforcer said:

 

T+48:

T+48 17011218_1018.gif

T+42:

T+42 17011218_1100.gif

T+36:

T+36 17011218_1106.gif

T+30:

T+30 17011218_1112.gif

Half-way there, every run has said snow should fall, even if accumulations negligible here.

 

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8 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

There are some maps coming this afternoon (just with graphics at the mo) and they will hopefully explain where and when. Even so the showers will be hit and miss as always, we could also get some hefty trough lines which will spill more snow down from the north and then the southern waving rain band is a forecasting nightmare. How far north, timings, how much will stay as rain, will it turn to snow, could it get London/M25 at rush hour and so mayhem would ensue. Met Office are considering an Amber warning, Low confidence but High impacts if it did come off. 

Really ?   ' Mayhem would ensue'  seems a little ott to be quite honest.

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Just now, SenlacJack said:

Really ?   ' Mayhem would ensue'  seems a little ott to be quite honest.

Really? many UK cities don't have a great track record for coping with a tiny bit of snow

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2 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Really? many UK cities don't have a great track record for coping with a tiny bit of snow

Thats true but suggesting it will lead to mayhem still seems a bit ott Jo ?

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3 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Really? many UK cities don't have a great track record for coping with a tiny bit of snow

Only takes 1-2cm to cause mayhem on roads in se england..... eg M1 in 2004(?) when a dusting to 2cm caused chaos with miles of tailbacks and cars skidding....

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9 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Really? many UK cities don't have a great track record for coping with a tiny bit of snow

Reading Jan 2009. took some folks 7 hours to get out of the city centre after 'a bit of snow' 

We cant cope

 

 

 

 

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Jo's right. There's a lot more to weather-related chaos than just the severity of the conditions. 

There's 3 years worth of new drivers out there who've never driven in snow who will be heading home from work. Ice will cause collisions and blocked roads, likewise it will be the railways worst friend, just when trains are rammed. You only need 1 small accident in my local town of Colchester for everything to grind to a halt and that's without slower traffic elsewhere and more than the usual amount of people using transport instead of walking or cycling because of the cold and wet. 

As for the trains, frozen points, electrical arcing due to low temperatures, snow particles getting into the electrics and unavailability of drivers due to the aforementioned traffic issues can be problematic. Another problem is caused by gritted platforms, passengers tread the water onto the metal footplates at the base of sliding doors. The doors close,train speeds up, water turns to ice and hey presto, doors are frozen solid at the next station. It can add 10 minutes to a 1 minute scheduled stop. Multiply that by 10 or more stations and you're into newsworthy delays territory.

So don't be doing any of this "It's only an inch of snow" nonsense, as always in life, the truth is much more complicated than that.

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I have decided to take the day off of work because I am 'sick' 'cough', no its not because the snow will make my journey home a nightmare. Don't be silly. :rofl: 

I believe it will snow but I am not sure if it will settle, with the amount of rain and 'warm' ground temperatures I believe it to be unlikely but we shall see. 


 

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Well Armageddon not arrived yet neither has the cold air.

Fear of driving in snow isn't limited to new drivers. A single snow flake causes instant panic. Maybe this is because cars tend to mask actual road conditions and depending on your car abs can be very distracting.

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Well at T18 still a zillion solutions for the "snow" in the south this evening. The EURO4 has suddenly decided to cancel most of it. At the same time, the ARGEPE has suddenly gone the other way and decided it will happen, but only south of London. GFS gets snow cover over most of the country by tomorrow lunchtime. AROME says yes to snow falling, but no to lowland settling. HIRLAM says no pretty much. NNM has the main snow north of London and a taste back-edge snow event.

If there was ever a nowcast event, this is it!

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