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Cold Spell 11th January onwards


Nick L

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Updated snow warning for the south tomorrow

Issued at: 10:31 on Wed 11 Jan 2017

Valid from: 10:00 on Thu 12 Jan 2017

Valid to: 23:55 on Thu 12 Jan 2017

Rain moving eastwards across the south of the UK on Thursday may turn to snow in places. There is a chance of snow settling with disruption to road, rail and air services as well as interruptions to power supplies and other utilities - this more likely across East Anglia and southeast England. Associated heavy rain and strong winds may prove additional hazards. As skies clear on Thursday night there is also potential for widespread ice to form quite rapidly on untreated surfaces. This is an update to slightly increase the risk of disruption from snow, as well as to introduce ice as a hazard.

As a developing area of low pressure moves east across southern Britain on Thursday there is potential for rain to turn rapidly to snow as cold air is drawn in. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty over the track and intensity of this system, meaning that confidence is low in the amount and extent of any snow.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1484179200&regionName=se

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Really intriguing to see what will happen tomorrow!

My wife has to travel to Bristol for work, she isn't due to leave there until about 6pm tomorrow evening and it's really borderline stuff as to whether it will be raining or snowing on the way home. Haldon Hill can sometimes be fun and games when the snow gets going - hopefully not for her sake!

 

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I am presuming up here in Scotland is more likely to be affected by snow showers rather than prolonged periods of snow (which is more likely to affect down south) or have i read this all wrong?

Cheers

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Just now, Bullseye said:

I am presuming up here in Scotland is more likely to be affected by snow showers rather than prolonged periods of snow (which is more likely to affect down south) or have i read this all wrong?

Cheers

 

There are two feeds, one the flow from the NW bringing snow showers to Scotland, and N+W Britain and N.Ireland tonight and tomorrow, perhaps turning to eastern Britain more on Friday

then a waving band of rain pushing up into southern Britain on Thursday which has the potential to bring snow to Exmoor, Cotswolds south Wales Thurs am and then as it clears towards SE, COULD bring snow over SE Britain maybe for Thursday evening rush hour

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There are some maps coming this afternoon (just with graphics at the mo) and they will hopefully explain where and when. Even so the showers will be hit and miss as always, we could also get some hefty trough lines which will spill more snow down from the north and then the southern waving rain band is a forecasting nightmare. How far north, timings, how much will stay as rain, will it turn to snow, could it get London/M25 at rush hour and so mayhem would ensue. Met Office are considering an Amber warning, Low confidence but High impacts if it did come off. 

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18 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

People just have such short memories on here, theres been quite a bit of snow since then and even in last winter there was snowfall quite widely if albeit it was an snow event which never even meant to happen and all the forecasts indicated it was going to be the coldest night since March 2013 with clear skies and severe frosts but what we got instead was a waved occulded front in the front which produced many hours of snowfall down the spine of the country. Unfortunately for here, it was just a tad too marginal so despite many hours of snowfall, we only got 2CM's but the Pennines I think got quite a fair bit tough. Think it happened on the 16th/17th Jan and if you look back at the charts you would not imagine there was quite a snow event taking place on them dates.

There has been other occasions of some snow events but the problem has been they been quite brief in nature so people have clearly forgotten they have occured!

Haven't seen snow down the far south east since 2012! 

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A look at Thursday. Main flow in from NW bringing snow showers, giving snow to N and W Britain and Northern Ireland but risk of trough lines too coming down from the north, which will spill snow to more parts within the main whitish area. These trough lines could push further south on Thursday night. Then there is the southern wet bit which could turn wintry, whether that is sleet and wet snow over the hills or proper lying snow we'll have to wait and see. extent of area could be further north as mentioned before. Clearance SE may coincide with Thursday evening rush hour, then whether the undercut of cold air will turn wet area to snow and the big M25 jam starts

thura.jpg

thurb.jpg

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Friday sees more snow showers and possible trough lines from the NW then North. eastern Britain looks a bit more prone by then, but still flow off Irish Sea, through Cheshire Gap, clipping Co Antrim. Ice and frost big problems as we end the week. Bitterly cold. 

fri.jpg

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Gritters just going past road at bottom of mine.... 4c dew -2c.....wind gusts have dropped markedly in last hour.... a few trees down around....  hope many peeps around get to see some flakes and some lucky peeps get a good covering....  Jo your maps seem more realistic than met ones.....

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BBC are constantly changing whether I will see any snowfall in my area at 6 in the evening. Either Heavy Rain or Heavy Snow.

It's updated back to "Heavy Snow" so, so far so good. :acute:

Temps1.png

Of course, this will chop and change in this complex situation. Will come down to a "Now-casting" event.

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Here in North Wales its been a blustery ole day, but over the past hour or so the wind has dropped considerably.
Definitely not cold enough for snow as yet... But according to the BBC its tomorrow evening that the fun really begins for my part of the world. :cold:
But as @mpkio2 has said, things are complex, and changing very rapidly... I also think that this will come down to a Now Casting event. :cold:

IMG_5554.PNG

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As soon as London is forecast a bit of wintery weather. It's mass news.

The media is going crazy Why. That's the M25 closed then with 2cm of slush.

If London got snow like parts of Northern Scotland get the country would be Bankrupt. 

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