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Dangerous55019

Spring 2017 Thoughts, hopes, wishes, forecasts etc...

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I drag out summer til the end of September, and then await Spring. Having asked this question previously on this forum, I remember the earliest 20C recorded in UK was March 2nd (1977). So that is the date I start looking for meaningful warm spells. Not long to go now!

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see

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ECM seasonal going for above average temperatures throughout spring with the exception of March in parts of the south

SeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170201_m2.pngSeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170201_m3.pngSeasonalAnomalies_T2m_20170201_m4.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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First UV Index of 2 for the year expected on Monday. Also it is not getting dark here till about 6pm now. :)

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The light is noticeable and despite the cool temperature i have noticed some daffodils sprouting in exposed spots. 

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As much as I like cold and snow, not another cold Spring this year please. Once I get past March I'd rather see it warm up so that I can spend more time in the garden, outdoors etc.

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On 25/01/2017 at 11:51, MP-R said:

I'd like a cold wintry February, an Atlantic-dominated March to get those reservoirs topped up, a traditional April with a mix of April showers and the first warm spell, then a warm convective May with the first hot spell.

Basically, I'd like enough rain in spring to allow for a stress-free dry warm summer.

Morning MP-R :smile:
I like your thinking, Although sadly February is turning into just another gloomfest, there is still hope for March, April and May :good:

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On 03/01/2017 at 21:03, snowsummer said:

Well im hoping that after we've seen the next 2 and a half months of freezing cold snowy blizzards (if only) then spring will come suddenly  giving us above average temperatures ready for the summer of 1976 repeat! 

Morning snowsummer :smile:
A repeat of the summer of 76 you say? Well, Just remember that the summer of 76 stated in the summer of 75 (ok, the dry spell started in the winter 74/75 to be fully pedantic), but since last summer (which was dryer than average IMBY), we've also had a dryer than average autumn, and a dryer than average winter, so a lot does hang on what Spring 17 can do.
And swerving swiftly, and fully back on topic........ I must have a look at what the Cansips and CFS are currently forecast for this coming spring.:smile:

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Well, I've just been having a quick look at how the CFS see's Spring 2017 panning out...
March does look like it could be a month of many weathers.
April looks fairly high pressure doninated.
And by the time we get to May, the high pressure seems to have slipped further south, although still covering the southern half of the UK.

So based upon this, I'd say that with the exception of March, we could be looking at quite a dry and warmish spring!!:good:
But will it pan out like this? ... Time will tell :unknw:

Spring 2017 (1).gif

Spring 2017 (2).gif

Spring 2017 (3).gif

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4 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Morning MP-R :smile:
I like your thinking, Although sadly February is turning into just another gloomfest, there is still hope for March, April and May :good:

Hi there. It is s bit isn't it. I was at least hoping for a snowy northerly to at least be able to go for another snowy walk in the Brecon Beacons.

Wouldnt be surprised if March turns out quite cyclonic. The Atlantic often has another go in March with the infamous March gales taking hold, but the effects of the SSW may result in these lows going further south. Will it be wet or snowy! Time will tell. :)

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A shift towards lower than average pressure during the March to May period from the ensemble mean maps

2cat_20170201_mslp_months24_global_deter2cat_20170201_prec_months24_global_deter

The same months from the Jan update

2cat_20170101_mslp_months35_global_deter2cat_20170101_prec_months35_global_deter

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On 12/02/2017 at 08:15, Dangerous55019 said:

Well, I've just been having a quick look at how the CFS see's Spring 2017 panning out...
March does look like it could be a month of many weathers.
April looks fairly high pressure doninated.
And by the time we get to May, the high pressure seems to have slipped further south, although still covering the southern half of the UK.

So based upon this, I'd say that with the exception of March, we could be looking at quite a dry and warmish spring!!:good:
But will it pan out like this? ... Time will tell :unknw:

 

Spring 2017 (2).gif

 

and here is the latest update for April... may as well ask Mystic Meg - 

glbz700MonInd2.gif

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6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

A shift towards lower than average pressure during the March to May period from the ensemble mean maps

2cat_20170201_mslp_months24_global_deter2cat_20170201_prec_months24_global_deter

The same months from the Jan update

2cat_20170101_mslp_months35_global_deter2cat_20170101_prec_months35_global_deter

same with this model...beyond useless..

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I want a March 2013 rerun. Especially as this Winter's been pants. Warmth can wait until April. After all many people like September to be an extension of Summer and in less than ideal ones many see September as the last bastion of hope for some warm and settled sunshine, so I don't see the rush for warmth in March. It can and often has snowed then of course. There's about 5 months after then for potential warm, sunny and of course thundery opportunities. For a month though where snow is still possible, but doesn't fall into the unlikely category such as April (very unlikely) , May (especially unlikely) and even June (extremly unlikely, but happened in 1975) I'm going to wish for it.

Edited by Walsall Wood Snow
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JAMSTEC

Surface air temp anomaly is shown to be above average this spring

temp2.glob.MAM2017.1feb2017.gif

Rain wise no strong signal for most though the far west could be a bit above average

tprep.glob.MAM2017.1feb2017.gif

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6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

JAMSTEC

Surface air temp anomaly is shown to be above average this spring

temp2.glob.MAM2017.1feb2017.gif

Rain wise no strong signal for most though the far west could be a bit above average

tprep.glob.MAM2017.1feb2017.gif

Not here is not.. looks like another cool wet spring to look forward too...:wallbash:

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WSI outlook for spring

Quote

 

Eastern Europe to Warm Up, While Western Europe Becomes Cooler/Wetter

Andover, MA, 21 February 2017 — For the aggregate March-May period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting above-normal temperatures across most of Europe and western Russia, with the exception of Iberia and parts of the U.K. The relative warmth will be most anomalous across eastern Europe, the eastern half of Scandinavia, and northwestern Russia.

“The last three months have been characterized by anomalous high pressure across northwestern Europe, which has resulted in a mild and dry winter there, while the Southeast has seen colder and wetter conditions associated with northeasterly flow,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “As we head into spring, we expect that pattern to change, with lower pressure becoming dominant across western Europe and milder Atlantic high pressure across the South and East. We expect a spring pattern to that seen the previous three years, with wetter-than-normal conditions setting up across western Europe and mild, dry weather becoming the norm across the Southeast."

For the March-May 2017 time period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:

March

Nordic region – Warmer than normal, except coastal Norway

U.K. – Slightly cooler than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east

April

Nordic region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Slightly cooler than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

May

Nordic region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Cooler than normal

 

2

https://business.weather.com/news/seasonal-outlook-the-weather-company-expects-a-pattern-reversal-in-march-for-europe

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The only LR forecasting I trust is the MetO. And even then it's with a pinch of salt.

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mild, no wind to speak of and heavy thundery downpours in April with beautiful cloud porn.

temps maybe 16 heading towards 20c.

No white snowy stuff unless it's hail.  

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On 16/02/2017 at 16:08, cheeky_monkey said:

Not here is not.. looks like another cool wet spring to look forward too...:wallbash:

Liking the look of that a lot! Longer summer stays in 3 months from June on wards the better. A warm /hot spring is my idea of hell.

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After a lengthy very benign period since July, wouldn't be surprised to see a flip to at least a more pronounced unsettled spell - southerly tracking jet, high pressure to the north, at least until May..

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On 2/21/2017 at 22:33, damianslaw said:

After a lengthy very benign period since July, wouldn't be surprised to see a flip to at least a more pronounced unsettled spell - southerly tracking jet, high pressure to the north, at least until May..

This was my fear as well. Although i don't believe in quotas and we have had dry years before (Nov 04-Sep 06) (Mar 11-Mar 12) causing drought fears we have also had periods where a couple of months of one extreme have been replaced with another (the wet summer of 07 was followed by a dry Autumn) (April 12-Dec 12 was extremely wet).

No way to tell when it will happen but at some point you'd expect the weather to break.

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10 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

This was my fear as well. Although i don't believe in quotas and we have had dry years before (Nov 04-Sep 06) (Mar 11-Mar 12) causing drought fears we have also had periods where a couple of months of one extreme have been replaced with another (the wet summer of 07 was followed by a dry Autumn) (April 12-Dec 12 was extremely wet).

No way to tell when it will happen but at some point you'd expect the weather to break.

i thought there was a theory somewhere that there were indeed wet and dry cycles off weather across NW Europe spanning decades or even centuries?? The theory goes something like 6/7 years of wetter weather will prevail followed by a drier period of the same kind of duration etc or something like that

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