spring Spring 2017 Thoughts, hopes, wishes, forecasts etc...

[sundog]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could do without charts like this, this April, horrid, as I don't live at 300m asl, I mean who at low levels south, would want this late April, when warm sunny weather possible?

 

Can understand somone not wanting a chart llike that in late april but i thought late april was one of the more if not the most interesting spell of weather we had during 2016. Our weather the last few yrs has become a borefest at least it broke the monotony if only for a short while imo.

Edited March 27, 2017 by sundog

[Summer Sun]

Aviemore leading the temperatures at 14:00 with 18C

Newquay is England's warm spot at 17.5c

[stodge]

3 hours ago, sundog said:

Can understand somone not wanting a chart llike that in late april but i thought late april was one of the more if not the most interesting spell of weather we had during 2016. Our weather the last few yrs has become a borefest at least it broke the monotony if only for a short while imo.

The evolution shown isn't that unusual for late April/early May and leads to the classic Buchan cold spell around the first week of May. Occasionally, we can luck out and get a prolonged spell of anticyclonic weather albeit with an E'ly hint (rather like now in fact) but no one should be surprised if we get colder interludes late in April.

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Jet stream heads north
Turning dry from the south
Warming up again

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39412933

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, stodge said:

The evolution shown isn't that unusual for late April/early May and leads to the classic Buchan cold spell around the first week of May. Occasionally, we can luck out and get a prolonged spell of anticyclonic weather albeit with an E'ly hint (rather like now in fact) but no one should be surprised if we get colder interludes late in April.

Yes the second half of April and much of May marks the time of year when we are most likely to see northerly and easterly airstreams, thanks to the PV giving up the ghost and the atlantic going into its annual slumber. Some years can bring cold cyclonic conditions, late April last year being a case in point, also 2012, others can bring a marked east/west divide with warmest weather in the west, early May 2008 being a very good examples, some can bring notably cold weather for the time of year May 1996 for instance. It is a very difficult time of year to predict weatherwise and as May 97 can flip from winter to summer in the space of 48 hours.

[MP-R]

8 hours ago, stodge said:

The evolution shown isn't that unusual for late April/early May and leads to the classic Buchan cold spell around the first week of May. Occasionally, we can luck out and get a prolonged spell of anticyclonic weather albeit with an E'ly hint (rather like now in fact) but no one should be surprised if we get colder interludes late in April.

Would that be strong westerly winds by any chance? Seems to be the norm nowadays - the return of the westerlies in early May after a fairly settled April. Back end of May however I can remember many warm easterly spells.

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Wettest in northwest
Many places dry
Warmest in southeast

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39423014

[Summer Sun]

High-pressure building next week a bit more unsettled for Scotland but warm to the east of high ground?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39436349

[reef]

Exceptional warmth for March here. The min last night was 12.4C, beating the previous 37 year record set in 2000 by a whole 0.6C. Today is already up to a max of 17.7C, which is the 6th warmest March day in the same 1980-2017 period.

The mean temp of 15.1C beats the previous high of 14.3C on 18th March 1990 by quite some way.

March as a whole is on a mean of 8.6C, so we're certain to beat March 1990's record of 8.4C now.

Edited March 30, 2017 by reef

[cheese]

18C here, so the warmest day of the year. Low of 12C as well, very mild.

[Summer Sun]

 

[sundog]

yesterday i recorded my warmest day of the yr so far,17.2c warmest march day since 2012.

All this warmth at this time of yr,recent history has shown us a poor summer awaits.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Windier in the far north settled elsewhere

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39449726

[Summer Sun]

Mostly settled next week southerly breeze next weekend?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39461816

[Summer Sun]

High pressure in charge for many

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39469395

 

Edited April 1, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Becoming much colder easter week with some wintry weather in the north

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39472379

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Becoming much colder easter week with some wintry weather in the north

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39472379

I expect that will probably get watered down closer to the time.

[iapennell]

54 minutes ago, Don said:

I expect that will probably get watered down closer to the time.

You are probably right there, throughout the winter promising cold-weather synopsis a fortnight or even ten days out has tended to be watered down as the time for it to occur drew near. I expect this mid-April one to occur however, as a good number of the weather models predict it and the stratospheric wind/pressure pattern over the Arctic and sub-arctic is predicted to weaken and then become easterly in the next ten days- this is (again) consistently indicated. A weakening of the high-latitude Stratospheric Westerlies and their then becoming easterly if, of course normal during April as the high Arctic high Stratosphere warms up under the 24-hour sunlight that commences this month; however a sizeable patch of colder stratosphere is predicted to cover Russia with a strong warmer "high" over northern Canada and Greenland by mid-month. This is quite consistently predicted and it is certainly conceivable that an influence of this upper-air pattern will affect the troposphere below- leading to anomalously north or (at least) north-west winds over Britain.

However, the strength of the Westerlies high up above the Equator (it has already been like this for several months) and the temperature-patterns across the North Atlantic may yet lead to a more Atlantic influence getting into the mix, hence the Arctic spell (when it occurs) may well be north-westerlies with one or two wet and less-cold westerly interruptions. All the same, this still leaves plenty of scope for snow-showers across the North and for night frosts to occur as far south as Bristol and Guildford.  

[Summer Sun]

Next week

Notably colder
Rain at times
Often windy

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39486739

[Summer Sun]

North-south split for early easter with high pressure close to the south

No significant rain in sight

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39509881

[virtualsphere]

March actually finished as quite a wet month here (certainly compared to many recent Marches) - the wettest March in Wales since 2006 (also after a dry winter) and second wettest since 1998.  It was also the wettest month since last September and the second wettest month since January 2016, although not a complete washout as some of the intervening months have been quite dry.  Looking at this graph, I'm glad I don't remember March 1981!

[Matthew.]

A warm and sunny start to April here in NE England. With a positive forecast this month could rival April 07/ 11/ 15 It has often been the best month of the year in the last decade.

[Jo Farrow]

It's not been too bad for those on Easter hols this week, and this weekend promises more warmth and sunshine. Good that at least some of the recent fine weather has coincided with a weekend. More people will start their holidays this weekend, so I'd imagine the roads will be busy Friday with people wanting to enjoy Saturday. 

The March 2017 summary is out from the Met Office. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2017/march

Like April can be, such a month of contrasts. 14cm snow in Co. Durham and 7cm snow in Midlothian and 22.1C in Kent by the end of March

[Summer Sun]

Into Easter

Average temperatures
Not much rain
Sunniest in southwest

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39520405

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Into Easter

Average temperatures
Not much rain
Sunniest in southwest

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/39520405

As expected, the cold spell has been watered down to 'average temperatures'.