spring Spring 2017 Thoughts, hopes, wishes, forecasts etc...

[Dangerous55019]

Well, we've passed the point of mid winter, and day light is slowly increasing... So the long range freak in me is naturally starting to think ahead to spring, and what will it bring?
Will we get a March like 2012, and an April like 2007 (or 2015), followed by a hot and thundery May? Or will we get that taste of winter like March 2013, and April 2016? Or will it be a season of many weathers? 

What would you like Spring 2017 to bring to us here in the UK?
Personally I'd like to see traditional month of March, a month of many weathers, ranging from snow, with strong squally winds, to that first nice seasonal burst of spring warmth, but with cool nights, and an occasional foggy start.
As for April, I'm all in favour of some squally showers, before slowly giving way to pleasant sunny days.
And finally, the month of May, this is the time when I like to see the first true burst of summer heat, so I can get the barbecue out  accompanied by a good old thundery breakdown 

So what are everyone else's thoughts, hopes and wishes for spring 2017? 


PS. Mods, if I've put this in the wrong place, or I'm too early, then feel free to move or delete as required.

[snowsummer]

Well im hoping that after we've seen the next 2 and a half months of freezing cold snowy blizzards (if only) then spring will come suddenly  giving us above average temperatures ready for the summer of 1976 repeat! 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

would like to see a settled Spring! sunny, mild, but won't happen

I'm going for an unsettled snow free, March, and April and May to be unsettled, dominated by easterly and northerly winds

[reef]

Thread reopen. Please continue.

[Dangerous55019]

The first spring like day of 2017 from a totally IMBY perspective was a couple of weeks ago on Sunday the 8th of January... There was some real noticeable warmth in the sun that day.
But recently I've noticed the other song birds starting to sing (as well as the robin), and the Bluebells and daffodils are slowly starting to sprout out of the ground as well.
Nature is slowly but surely awakening from its winter slumber. 

[Dangerous55019]

I see that Gavs Weather Vids has done a Spring 2017 Analogues video... Well, I'll let you folks watch it, and draw your own conclusions.

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/
 

 

[summer blizzard]

Personally i like my springs to be very settled and don't mind warmth.

March 12

April 07

May 08

[hillbilly]

Unfortunately with so much calm,dry and non wintery weather since October I think we are going to pay for it. I expect winter to rear its head with lots of snow particularly in March but extending throughout spring and when it is not cold expect lots of wind and rain .If you are looking for nice spring weather you may have to go on a holiday abroad to find it ! 

[snowsummer]

1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

Unfortunately with so much calm,dry and non wintery weather since October I think we are going to pay for it. I expect winter to rear its head with lots of snow particularly in March but extending throughout spring and when it is not cold expect lots of wind and rain .If you are looking for nice spring weather you may have to go on a holiday abroad to find it ! 

Im thinking the same thing. Though Its been freezing in my little corner for near on 2 weeks now,( still got the remains od the snowman  from 11 nights ago!)so i just want some warmth now. If the ssw does occur and does what most hope for then how long would the effects last? Could we be looking at a march 2013 repeat? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Expectation is for a cold Spring, mostly northerly or Easterly winds, HLB dominant, especially Apr and May, could be miserable at times, cool/wet little sun

[HafrenLMP1]

8 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Nature is slowly but surely awakening from its winter slumber. 

Winter?? What is that you speak of?

Edited January 22, 2017 by HafrenLMP1

[Weather-history]

it will be 25 years since May 1992 this year.  What a month that was, early season heat and some cracking early season thunderstorms. 

[Matthew.]

An SSW in Late Feb/early March could seal the fate of spring and even change summer patterns. I don't know if that's a good or bad thing though. All depends on how the dice rolls with all the variables. Any month from march-October can be summer like from my experience

[markyo]

21 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Expectation is for a cold Spring, mostly northerly or Easterly winds, HLB dominant, especially Apr and May, could be miserable at times, cool/wet little sun

Sounds perfect!! Would love that!

[cheeky_monkey]

Hoping for a dry warm spring here...spring tends to be cool and wet in Alberta and is my least favourite season of the year..no doubt it will snow of and on up to the middle of May as per and mosquitoes will abound come June 

[Summer Sun]

WSI winter into spring outlook

Quote

 

The Weather Company expects warm/wet/windy/westerly flow to become established across the North Atlantic again.

Andover, MA, 23 January 2017 — For the aggregate February-April period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting above-normal temperatures across most of Europe and western Russia, with the exception of Iberia and the U.K. The relative warmth will be most anomalous across Scandinavia and northwestern Russia.

“As has been the case since October, the bulk of the cold has been east-focused in January, with southeastern Europe getting the worst of it with extreme cold and very heavy snows,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “We expect that the evolving subseasonal signal should allow for warming/drying across southern Europe as we head into early February, with the strong westerly North Atlantic flow shifting the focus of the wet weather to the U.K. and Scandinavia for at least a couple of weeks. We continue to watch the stratosphere for signs of a polar vortex breakdown that might increase the odds of colder weather across western Europe but simply aren’t seeing anything too get excited about at this time.”

For the February-April 2017 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:

February

Nordic region – Warmer than normal, especially south/west

U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west

March

Nordic region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Slightly colder than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west

April

Nordic region – Warmer than normal

U.K. – Slightly colder than normal

Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal

Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal far west

 

 

https://business.weather.com/news/european-seasonal-outlook-the-weather-company-predicts-unusually-mild-weather-for-early-february

[Scorcher]

March 2012, April 2011 and May 1992 would be the ideal scenario....I can dream haha. February 2008/1998 beforehand would be nice too.

[mountain shadow]

Anything other than what i've had all Winter will do....cloudy and 8 degrees.

[Matthew.]

16 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

An SSW in Late Feb/early March could seal the fate of spring and even change summer patterns. I don't know if that's a good or bad thing though. All depends on how the dice rolls with all the variables. 

Both 1984 and 89 were good summers and both had SSW in February. Both had neutral ENSO in summer. Both however had fairly strong easterly QBO.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Both 1984 and 89 were good summers and both had SSW in February. Both had neutral ENSO in summer. Both however had fairly strong easterly QBO.

I recall a few years on here that i looked at the 18C+ summer months with regards to ENSO and QBO and found that something like 80% of them had +ENSO values (neutral, weak or strong did not seem to matter but the average was probably weak Nino). QBO values were more mixed but a bias towards neutral was best. 

Moral of the story, we want a weak Nino and neutral QBO this summer. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Dryer than average spring, drought???

[MP-R]

I'd like a cold wintry February, an Atlantic-dominated March to get those reservoirs topped up, a traditional April with a mix of April showers and the first warm spell, then a warm convective May with the first hot spell.

Basically, I'd like enough rain in spring to allow for a stress-free dry warm summer.

[damianslaw]

Spring often takes some time to get going here, in fits and starts through March and in some years well into April, my thoughts of spring rarely begin to enter my mind until late February. It is by far our most fickle season, the hardest to predict and its always a fine margin between a bitter arctic plunge and a warm southerly feed it seems. My expectations are most subdued in Spring, indeed I find the forum a much pleasanter place to be in Spring especially when we get into April, far less frustration around.

When it comes to spring long range forecasts, take them with an even bigger room for margin of error.

[Milhouse]

My mind is very much turning to Spring now, especially as we have yet another cold cloudy easterly to contend with. Next month the clocks go forwards and we are well and truly in light evening territory even though temperatures don't always respond accordingly. Hoping for a very sunny and reasonably warm one this year.

[Matthew.]

On 07/02/2017 at 20:54, Milhouse said:

My mind is very much turning to Spring now, especially as we have yet another cold cloudy easterly to contend with. Next month the clocks go forwards and we are well and truly in light evening territory even though temperatures don't always respond accordingly. Hoping for a very sunny and reasonably warm one this year.

If I had a choice when the settled sunny conditions arrived I would go for June to August. However as our seasons aren't as simple as this sometimes the spring months can be as good as the summer months if it falls right so a March 2003, 12 or a April 07, 11, 15 as a second choice.