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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS 12hrs FI finds the only feasible way to get some deeper cold in, within the current set up this is the only way to get there but it does rely on a lot going right with the PV relocating further to the nw and low heights draining away from the ne to allow the ridging to fill the gap.

I'd echo Weathizards thoughts with the GFS overdoing the cold at longer range, this is a known bias especially with PM flows. The overall pattern however does show some promise but along way to go yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Alekos said:

I hope this runs comes off for you guys ! But I fear Northern jet won't allow 

Its a long way out so i think most of us know it s a long shot :)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Interesting wrt the 18z from yesterday and more importantly, less amplification to Greenland for a shorter timescale which has my interest as more feasible.

the latter part of the run re ridging over the top is a low likelihood at the moment but clearly an option on the table

 

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Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn

Mmmmm...here we go again...i read earlier not to believe any wonder charts unless they are backed up by teleconnections and background signals... and i have heard nothing about those changing as of yet....unless I have missed something.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Agree nick Sussex. .

It'll most likely end up a cold outlier

.against itself. .

But very nice synoptic s.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

Mmmmm...here we go again...i read earlier not to believe any wonder charts unless they are backed up by teleconnections and background signals... and i have heard nothing about those changing as of yet....unless I have missed something.

I made a post a couple of pages back on the tropical forcing looking more promising for mid-late Jan :)

The 12z GFS is a decent fit for the improving background state in terms of the broad idea, as tropical activity destructively interferes with the weak La Nina forcing to take the sting out of the N. Atlantic jet just as the Euro trough and ridge NW/N of the UK is settling in.

Timing will be important though; we need the westerlies to relax as soon as currently being shown, yet not so soon as to drop the trough too far west. A fair bit of wiggle room for the latter at least, so that's something.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Agree nick Sussex. .

It'll most likely end up a cold outlier

.against itself. .

But very nice synoptic s.

Yes the pattern it shows is good and compared to the last few weeks at least wakes us up from the utter tedium of December. To be honest I'd be much more interested in that possibility of the low dropping south because that's by far the better chance for some decent snow and cold but its just a low chance at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Under Lyme

12z gfs great synoptics, but I suspect leading us up the 'arctic path' once again. t200+ still very much in FI

.h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

The Northerly which starts things is 8 days away. Not quite reliable time frame but not in the depths of FI either.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The Op has plenty of support out to 216 with -6 uppers UK wide

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

I like that after the initial deep northerly incursion' how the gfs12z takes heights to the cut off point at the Russian large ridge...thus introduction of north easterly flow...and I reiterate'...its feasible! !!!

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Nice looking output from the gfs 12z this evening. Will it ever come to fruition though. Probably not. Would be nice to see these type of charts move within the t96 range. But unfortunately so far this winter we seem to be on a wild goose chase. Hopefully we might see some support from ecm later. But I won't hold my breath on that one. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

About 7/20 GEFS members are showing some very nice charts for coldies in deep FI, so the op was not a total outlier.

Now some support from the ECM this evening would be nice.

 

Indeed :good: 

image.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.pngimage.png

Edited by Changing Skies
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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife

As Ian Ferguson mentioned in a tweet earlier today "Mixed signs by mid-month & after: ECMWF anticyclonic; GloSea cyclonic (to SW & markedly cyclonic late Jan)." GloSea picking up the signal so is the GFS, FI fair enough but long range its something being picked up by a few Models. 

Screen Shot 2017-01-04 at 17.42.03.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Just quickly although there is 'some' support for operational gfs 12z there in minority atm not majority. ..

So technically its an outlier..though not wildly. 

We'll check ecm full suite 12z....

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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON

So the gfs 12z gets the punters back in !

I do think this time the garden path is leading us the way there this time after the last failed northerly broke our hearts .like some others have said it does look feasible 

ECM hopefully backs the gfs 

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