Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, tight isobar said:

@feb1991blizzard..

Why is a trending upwards a bad sign..in your opinion? ?

Ens flatter themselves sometimes..like some members!!!!

Always when that slight uptick in the ECM London graph occurs when we are in the middle of a will it / wont it cold snap question mark, that the first one where the graph starts to rise, even if its small and at the end, usually signals a flat Jet SWerly pattern and starts to gather momentum from there, it always happens, hope not this time.

[tight isobar]

Anyway. .

Looking at the 0c scale. .

It isn't hard to see the potential in migration of westwards 'correct' of core cold.

The persuasion is showing. 

[TEITS]

Last one from me tonight.

The GFS still looks way off with regards to the low pressure as it remains way off the eastern seaboard as it tracks NE.

More likely to be deeper than the GFS suggests and run much closer to the east coast on a more N,ly vector.

[Nouska]

19 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Always when that slight uptick in the ECM London graph occurs when we are in the middle of a will it / wont it cold snap question mark, that the first one where the graph starts to rise, even if its small and at the end, usually signals a flat Jet SWerly pattern and starts to gather momentum from there, it always happens, hope not this time.

You are being swayed by the uptick in the GFS deterministic 12Z run (blue line). ECM has a bit more scatter but the grouping is actually colder than the previous run. The ECM suite mean (yellow line) is still solidly on or below 5C for max temps, mid month on, as it was on the 00Z.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Nouska

[khodds]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Anyway. .

Looking at the 0c scale. .

It isn't hard to see the potential in migration of westwards 'correct' of core cold.

The persuasion is showing. 

Isn't that the same chart twice? Or am I being thick (again!)

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Nouska said:

You are being swayed by the uptick in the GFS deterministic 12Z run. ECM has a bit more scatter but the grouping is actually colder than the previous run. The ECM suite mean is still solidly on or below 5C for max temps, mid month on, as it was on the 00Z.

NO - by the mean - btw the GEFS are awful and flat in fi I'm afraid.

[Johnp]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

NO - by the mean - btw the GEFS are awful and flat in fi I'm afraid.

Can you lend some of your negativity to the AO and NAO?

[tight isobar]

Yeah . apologies khodds.

Its a double snapshot.

But will be a useful tool over coming days.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

NO - by the mean - btw the GEFS are awful and flat in fi I'm afraid.

I agree, horrible mean in the extended...not much room to work with there

[TEITS]

Whats the point of posting the GEFS mean when we have scatter of 16C for the 12th Jan.

Edited January 4, 2017 by TEITS

[Cheshire Freeze]

14 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Whats the point of posting the GEFS mean when we have scatter of 16C for the 12th Jan.

Look, the theme of this winter is we're constantly being fed crumbs to latch on to; time and again. If we believed FI trends/ensembles/long range forecasts etc we'd have all seen some snow a while back. 

I have no idea what this background signal is that the extended output is forever latching on to...but what I do know is that it is constantly being drowned out by something else- something which the modelling is not factoring in from the get go. 

Last year my have been bad but at least it was what it was...it never pretended to be anything else but crap!

What can I say, the GEFS are next to useless in my very honest opinion...looks lovely with all of those snow percentages through into FI until you realise that the ensemble suite looked almost exactly the same 10 days ago for today. It's always out in FI this year, and even then it's nothing but 'potential'.

Unless we see some MAJOR changes to the hemispheric set up via an SSW etc this will not change until changes in seasonal wavelengths force a change. I think we all know when we'll see the blocking reappear!

It is that bad at the minute that I actually have NO certainty whatsoever that I'll even see a flake of snow this winter (that includes surrounding areas like Manchester...excluding the nearby peaks obviously)- how bad is that?! It's just not normal to be experiencing what we've experienced over the past few years RE snow. Historically even the mildest of winters had at least one snowy period.

Edited January 4, 2017 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Whats the point of posting the GEFS mean when we have scatter of 16C for the 12th Jan.

IM not suggesting you use it to for a deterministic forecast of temperature, but surely the lower it is, the more likely low temps are in the range.

[geordiekev]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Purely for fun,the pub is full tonight

Is it too late to write to Santa. 

As I speculated last night,  I was very interested and encouraged in the cold seeping down into the Med bringing better chances as we need a cold continent to hedge all our bets and encourage the growth of cold pooling enough to edge west. By doing so we can hopefully rid the leech of a high 

I have to say there was a lot of negative posts earlier this morning and some advising us we were all missing a trick. As many of the respected posters repeat, don't invest everything into 1 run,  weather is changeable as are the models and it could go like a pear,  but I am v encouraged by the v cold and snowy European setup. 

Edited January 4, 2017 by geordiekev
Spelling

[Weathizard]

Surely seen as the OPs are struggling enough with the slider lows ect then the lower resolution ENS must be about as useful as a chocolate fireguard? 

Remember this time last week the GFS had a 168 mean that had us under a stonking northerly into GH scenario with a MEAN of -7 uppers

[Spah1]

 

[bobbydog]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Look, the theme of this winter is we're constantly being fed crumbs to latch on to; time and again. If we believed FI trends/ensembles/long range forecasts etc we'd have all seen some snow a while back. 

I have no idea what this background signal is that the extended output is forever latching on to...but what I do know is that it is constantly being drowned out by something else- something which the modelling is not factoring in from the get go. 

Last year my have been bad but at least it was what it was...it never pretended to be anything else but crap!

I think what you mean is, if FI trends/ensembles/long range forecasts etc WERE RIGHT we'd have all seen some snow a while back. Are they going to be wrong all winter? I doubt it. 

This winter may not have been great so far but look at summer. It looked like it was going to be a washout and it redeemed itself in the end. Well, halfway through actually. The vast majority of 'memorable' winters only actually had a week or two of proper snowy spells. It's only the 4th January. Do you think that if we had the model range in, for example, 1991, we would have seen the 2nd week in February coming? No we wouldn't. I know it's frustrating but keep the despair for the 2nd week of March. Then I'll join you!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, bobbydog said:

I think what you mean is, if FI trends/ensembles/long range forecasts etc WERE RIGHT we'd have all seen some snow a while back. Are they going to be wrong all winter? I doubt it. 

This winter may not have been great so far but look at summer. It looked like it was going to be a washout and it redeemed itself in the end. Well, halfway through actually. The vast majority of 'memorable' winters only actually had a week or two of proper snowy spells. It's only the 4th January. Do you think that if we had the model range in, for example, 1991, we would have seen the 2nd week in February coming? No we wouldn't. I know it's frustrating but keep the despair for the 2nd week of March. Then I'll join you!

I'll look forward to our joint moaning session then 2nd week of March 

Although by then we'll probably be side tracked by the big Greenland high we'll be seeing in the models..

[StretfordEnd1996]

Looking in the more nearer time frame - the uppers towards the middle of next week around Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty chilly from a bit of a North Westerly type flow - according to the GFS18z and the ECMWF

 

Yeh alright it's as brief as anything and NW type incursions are uneventful for many of us 90% of the time but for me, as a lover of weather in general, always like a nice cold looking chart even if it's just a brief incursion of cold uppers for not even a day . It's a nice change from that huge swathe of those yellow colours swung over the top of the country from the South and West anyway. 

 

 

ECM seems to be able to pull of another NW type incursion a few days later towards the end of the run - this one a bit more potent perhaps 

 

 

Both models have been flirting with some sort of NW incursion(s) next week sometime at varying different days let's see if any of them produce some wintry showers for the North and West.

Apologies for taking such an in depth look on such an uneventful looking NWly but hey what else could I look at

 

Some fantastic fantastic inputs by so many of you today it really has made me learn a lot and is one of the reasons I never ever give up hope - if I was so so negative I don't think I'd ever deserve snow ever again. Being positive makes me feel so much better. 

 

Goodnight everyone. 

 

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I agree, horrible mean in the extended...not much room to work with there

Pfttt! That's quite hyperbolic it certainly isn't screeching southwesterlies. Low heights in Europe tend to serve us well. This is certainly not a bad mean, I wont be losing sleep. As a Londoner I'm not thrilled but your location may do quite well out of a cold PM flow. There is no such thing as certainty in this business. 

[geordiekev]

3 hours ago, Weathizard said:

Surely seen as the OPs are struggling enough with the slider lows ect then the lower resolution ENS must be about as useful as a chocolate fireguard? 

Remember this time last week the GFS had a 168 mean that had us under a stonking northerly into GH scenario with a MEAN of -7 uppers

Maybe the GFS was just a few days out,  it is known for picking up cold trends in FI then dropping them only to reappear.

First chart forecast for 7th JAN  From the 29th DEC 2016  and bottom chart tonight's forecast  for 15th JAN, not a Million, more 10 miles apart. 

The trend is our friend. 

. 

Edited January 4, 2017 by geordiekev

[Dennis]

Watch that real close zonal winds 1Hpa - the lower the more cold could be build

[SMU]

55 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Watch that real close zonal winds 1Hpa - the lower the more cold could be build

CFS operational &control now going for a SSW late Jan-

S

[knocker]

A couple of observations this morning to start the ball rolling. Quite and interesting tweet by Sam Lillo which I posted in the other thread which I feel is worth repeating as it's very interesting. IMO. in the context of the problems with the medium range forecasts this winter.

"The entrance region to the climatological W Atlantic jet was the strongest on record for December in 2016" and this trend is continuing

And secondly the GEFS is showing some inclination to retrogress the HP this morning which could bring more inclement wintry weather to the UK towards the end of the ten day period.

So a little more detail. High pressure remains in control up too and including the weekend with just a minor blip as weak fronts slide SE over the country on Friday. With reference to the point made above the usual upstream energy distribution vis the jet. So remaining dry with temps a little below average.

next week sees the high pressure relegated south west under pressure from the energy flow thus troughs will now travel  around the HP and track SE across the UK  bringing some wet and windy conditions to all with the strong winds tending to veer NW to N in this transient development.

A quick look further ahead and the pattern changes upstream still on the cards with another Atlantic wave taking place during the transition. But this for another time.

Edited January 4, 2017 by knocker

[The PIT]

GFS run resembles runs we had several days ago in deep fI. Looks like today will be the coldest for some time. Hopefully something better will come up in the next few runs.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

CFS operational &control now going for a SSW late Jan-

S

Split or displacement?