Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Mucka]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

need to know which op runs to discard late on mucka! 

There still seems to be a propensity to over amplify late on in the op ECM runs. The 00z day 10 was thus although that run had a strange end with the Siberian ridge looking to bridge over to the Atlantic (cutting off a chunk of vortex to our east which would be just as 'mental' as the 06z GFS op. If that set up repeated on the 12z then jeez! 

i expect to see a less amplified version of the 00z run by late on but as I said earlier, the undercutting of the ridge is vital and also enough draining of the Euro heights to ensure a west based -NAO doesn't come into play. 

I'm not saying last nights 12z will be repeated, just that if we get similar amplification to this morning the ridge will just as likely be further West as East and my money would be on West.

Agree there is a good chance it is not as amplified as those runs but it is just a case of wait and see.The undercutting of the ridge, as you put it, and draining of the heights to our S/SW are reliant on several moving parts, the most important of which seems to be the behaviour of the closed Azores low.

Too many permutations here but essentially keeping it from phasing with the upper trough moving over the UK until later (so that we don't get West based -NAO) is the most important factor to draining those heights. Preferably it stays trapped and helps retrogress the Euro heights West.

Think we are debating degrees of agreement here. 

 

Edited December 29, 2016 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

BBC automated look poor for this neck of the woods on NYD but gfs and ukmo look full of wintry promise to me? Esp places with reasonable altitude...Hoping for some sneaky upgrades by tomorrow..

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

12 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

when does the ECM come out?

Hi, this thread may be of use for yourself and anyone else unsure of the update times

 

[knocker]

Quite a good illustration of the intensifying and realignment of the Aleutian ridge and the coupled Arctic plunge over N. America initiating the Atlantic wave and the amplification in the Atlantic

 

[Day 10]

ECM similar to UKMO at 96

[Day 10]

And the 3 at 120

[booferking]

Looks not to bad to me will it wont it..

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

And the 3 at 120

 

ECM halfway between GFS and UKMO as far as retrogessing Euro heights West.

 

Edit 144 is flirting with West based -NAO with the Azores low phasing with the trough but should recover to bring a Northerly at least.

How amplified the pattern is upstream thereafter is another issue.

Edited December 29, 2016 by Mucka

[Weathizard]

GFS out on its own then, ECM goes with the UKMO at 144

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM day 6 compared to yesterday

  

 

Pretty similar at this point which isn't bad considering how yesterdays 12z panned out. Better than the UKMO output as well in terms of amplification. The only real difference is the deeper US trough and perhaps the stronger ridge pushing out of the eastern seaboard.

Edited December 29, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS out on its own then, ECM goes with the UKMO at 144

Not really, ECM is more a blend of the two. I would take ECM in a heartbeat over UKMO.

Edited December 29, 2016 by Mucka

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS out on its own then, ECM goes with the UKMO at 144

I would disagree. But let's see how it pans out.

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS out on its own then, ECM goes with the UKMO at 144

I would wait until the run is complete , far too early to say who is correct when we are up to 144

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS out on its own then, ECM goes with the UKMO at 144

Vortex in Greenland is night and day ECM miles better also ECM more amplified.

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

GFS out on its own then, ECM goes with the UKMO at 144

The ECM has a trough coming down from Iceland where as the UKMO doesn't

there isn't much difference between ECM and GFS at 168hrs either,which is good continuity

 

Edited December 29, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[radiohead]

12Z ECM T168. Not as amplified as the 12Z GFS here. But let's see what T192 offers.

Edited December 29, 2016 by radiohead

[swfc]

ecm and gfs look very close at the 160hr plus  mark!!!!

[bradymk]

ECM very similar to yesterday 12z at 168, just slightly less amplified. 

Edited December 29, 2016 by bradythemole

[karlos1983]

ECM not quite like the ukmo but not great it has to be said. Next couple of frames quite crucial for a cold run. 

168 is good 

Edited December 29, 2016 by karlos1983

[Weathizard]

Yes apologies it was at quick glance as I'm trying to wolf down my dinner whilst keeping up with the ECM on my phone!

 

168 actually looks quite like the GFS strangely but a little flatter, will be interesting to see where this route goes.

Edited December 29, 2016 by Weathizard

[pip22]

How is the back edge snow going on the ECM?

[Eskimo]

As the ECM appears to be a halfway house between the UKMO & GFS, would that suggest that the ECM isn't particular swinging in any direction, and could therefore slide towards either option, if of course both the GFS and UKMO options were the only two on the table. 

[Banbury]

Also please consider 168 is FI in this set up given the variety of charts we are seeing

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Also please consider 168 is FI in this set up given the variety of charts we are seeing

I think FI is around the 96 mark