Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[geordiekev]

After such a benign winter thus far, barring Barbs & Connor I am quite interested in the coming scenario showing a very cold snowy setup in eastern Europe as they have also had an unusually dry winter so far.

It's always a good idea to get the cold to the east of us,  as this increases our chances going forward and helps to hedge our bets,  otherwise easterlies can be watered down if the mainland remains warm. 

Hopefully once the cold sets up with our neighbours, this will help to create cold pooling and shift the stubborn leech of a high away from our shores, fingers xd

Edited January 3, 2017 by geordiekev

[lorenzo]

What a chart given the vortex relocation, massive switch and frictional torques and pacific trigger all on line at this timestamp,, that below imo is as hardcore as the NAO gets this season, having peaked over xmas, downhill from here..

.

 

[loubie_4]

52 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

What a chart given the vortex relocation, massive switch and frictional torques and pacific trigger all on line at this timestamp,, that below imo is as hardcore as the NAO gets this season, having peaked over xmas, downhill from here..

.

 

What does this mean for us, Lorenzo? Still learning. 

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, loubie_4 said:

What does this mean for us, Lorenzo? Still learning. 

I think Lorenzo means that considering the factors he mentioned, the NAO (north Atlantic oscillation) has peaked in terms of being positive and from here will trend down towards negative. A negative NAO increases chances of cold weather in Europe, but doesn't guarantee it though. A strongly negative NAO played a part in the colder winter of 2009-10. Google north atlantic oscillation to find out more, lots of good articles. 

[Mucka]

Interesting UKMO this morning, expect Steve will be talking up the prospects of the low to our NW disrupting SE in future output and managing some amplification behind but it looks a bit too "bowling ball" this time.

GFS 00z holds less interest at 144 so naturally that will be correct and UKMO wrong this time. 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by Mucka

[Seasonality]

12z ECM vs latest GFS for next week.

[knocker]

The only relevant comment I can think of making regarding the latest ec46 means is that by the 21st it has continued the transition to deep Aleutian low and trough NE Pacific with our trough to the east sinking down to the Mediterranean. Overall the 850mb temp means dip below average for the first half of Jan. but thereafter recover to above average

Edited January 3, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

As expected gfs now looks much flatter.UKMO is better as the core heights are dragged into the western Atlantic but back to the familiar tale of a strong jet streak hurtling across the pond most likely ruining any hope of retrogression..

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[SMU]

7 hours ago, Hotspur61 said:

Hi Steve,to me this just looks like a tempory PM toppler. I just can"t see it being anything else. I have read your comments earlier but could you explain in simple terms how you see how potentially we could see an improvement in a cold spell incoming.Still learning and very interested in your comments.Thanks in advance.   

@Hotspur61

The overnight GFS - PTB 7 & 11 is the closest to what I was looking for with the high pressure squeezing an undercut-

UKMO coming into range tonight/tomorrow

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=7&ech=6&carte=1&mode=0

S

[SMU]

@Mucka

run the GEM -132-162 its in the ball park just to far east...

[loubie_4]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

I think Lorenzo means that considering the factors he mentioned, the NAO (north Atlantic oscillation) has peaked in terms of being positive and from here will trend down towards negative. A negative NAO increases chances of cold weather in Europe, but doesn't guarantee it though. A strongly negative NAO played a part in the colder winter of 2009-10. Google north atlantic oscillation to find out more, lots of good articles. 

Thanks for this - really appreciated. Wasn't sure if he was saying that the NAO was about to head into negative territory or not. Will certainly have a read up on this

[The PIT]

The trend away from cool to milder conditions continues from all models. The disappointing uninteresting Winter continues.

[knocker]

Nothing hugely different that one can say about this morning's GFS so this going to sound very familiar. Essentially with the overall pattern (keeping this within ten days) still the same it's once again just the interpretation of the waves rippling east across the Atlantic and the interaction between the Azores HP and the energy emissions upstream that continue to feed troughs running around the north of the HP ( the SW jet is around 180kts at times) and the low pressure area to the south which continues to play an important role.

So for the rest of the week high pressure more or less in charge over the UK with just a little blip Friday as weak fronts traverse SE dying as they go.

At the beginning of next week sees the colder air is much energized which pushes the high pressure south west and introduces a much stronger NW air flow over most of the UK which leaves the door ajar for systems to track SE over the UK.

And this duly happens

A quick summation. Remaining dry for many areas, particularly the southern half of the country.but becoming  windier with some outbreaks of light rain towards the end of the period. Temps possible a little above average.

Edited January 3, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Well one of the more respected members of TWO is making interesting noises this morning suggesting some potential from the GEFS 00z suite

 

Perhaps Gfs op is at the mild end of the suite..

 

 

Edited January 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Ecm looks better this morning to my very untrained eye, more influence from a PM airstream at 168..

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The only relevant comment I can think of making regarding the latest ec46 means is that by the 21st it has continued the transition to deep Aleutian low and trough NE Pacific with our trough to the east sinking down to the Mediterranean. Overall the 850mb temp means dip below average for the first half of Jan. but thereafter recover to above average

Not according to this.

Edited January 3, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not according to this.

That chart hardly covers the second half of January but if you are going to be pedantic then becoming average around the 20th and then rising (with the odd blip) to above average until around the 14th February;

[knocker]

Nothing untoward lurking in the woodshed with the ecm this morning

 

[northwestsnow]

Well the ecm went downhill at a rate of knots after 168!! 

We had a euro low in place and it looked to be setting up for a north wester, then the northern arm just swept it all away.

Is there anything we can cling to? Its getting pretty desperate now isnt it.

Ps i dont class the EC monthly as any sort of lifeline, its been signposting blocking highs at northerly lats since November, and im pretty sure it did the same last winter, im not sure if people pay for it, if i did i would be wanting a refund,its been dreadful!

Edited January 3, 2017 by northwestsnow

[mb018538]

I've had a couple of weeks off to enjoy the festive period....doesn't look like 2017 has got any late gifts though!

As pleasant as this winter has been so far, with a lot of dry and chilly weather....still nothing to look forward to snow-wise. As the output would suggest up until mid month is now written off, what will the remaining 4-6 weeks of deep mid-winter hold? At the moment we look to be squarely stuck at the beginning.

[karlos1983]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well the ecm went downhill at a rate of knots after 168!! 

We had a euro low in place and it looked to be setting up for a north wester, then the northern arm just swept it all away.

Is there anything we can cling to? Its getting pretty desperate now isnt it.

I think things will look quite different in 5 days time in the models, and interest will pick up. 

Going off the last few sets of ecm ens, mid month is where the next window of opportunity lies. If that fails then desperate may well be the word! 

Edited January 3, 2017 by karlos1983

[Polar Maritime]

Agree with Karl..The GFS continues to show some interesting charts as we head into mid-month, With the UK being in the 'battleground' between the Atlantic and the deep cold.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

The only relevant comment I can think of making regarding the latest ec46 means is that by the 21st it has continued the transition to deep Aleutian low and trough NE Pacific with our trough to the east sinking down to the Mediterranean. Overall the 850mb temp means dip below average for the first half of Jan. but thereafter recover to above average

You may want to check your calendar knocks. Presume you mean the second half of Jan rather then the first? 

And luke, if you are going to diss macro forecasts of HLB, then please can we see a hemispheric chart to back it up. No doubt that this winter has failed to deliver  for nw Europe coldies but it's definitely been blocked MLB rather than HLB in our part of the NH.  Maybe a halfway bust thus far and the distance between delivering/not delivering really is not as large as you might think. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The continued desperate search for winter continues today and if we manage to find interest in the gem or ukmo 144 chart for potential cold and snow then that really does show how absolutely terrible things are right now. Iv lost faith in every long range suite of models out there, plus anything past 144 in the models. It's been 4 years since the Midlands has had a winter and more than 1cm of snow, that's as bad as iv ever known it in my 33 years of life.  

So where are we now? 

We have a mid Atlantic ridge extending over the UK at times bringing the occasional burst of colder air that turns the showers wintery up north on high ground for 24 hours before warmer uppers moves across. 

We have a strong vortex located across its usual home and although we see troughing in Europe it's too far east for any interest for us desperate folks and any charts showing high pressure to our north west or indeed north east flattern the pattern out as we get closer to t144. The vortex is just too strong and too organised to allow northern blocking and until we see genuine evidence of the vortex having pressure on it with wave 1 or preferably wave 2 attacks come into the reliable then any trop output showing a -NAO/AO I'd be very very wary of.

I know that this will probably annoy some on here as it's a bit of rant but to be honest I couldn't care less because it's tiresome having hopes dashed continuously for 4 years for all of us that like cold and snow, I recognise it's only 3rd January but I'm already worn out! 

Here's hoping for a miracle to turn this winter round because let's be honest, billion pounds worth of computers and all the background teleconnections in the world have done Jack all so far. 

[karlos1983]

16 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

In all fairness there has been Northern Blocking; just not in the right position to benefit us. You can hardly sat this winter has been zonal like last year. 

Exactly! Even if there was a SSW which will promote Northern Blocking, it does not guarantee UK cold, just increases our chances. That would have been harder to accept though I'd imagine. 

You can probably make the same argument for the LRF's teleconnections etc, showed potential for deep cold on our shores, but this time it went to Greece instead! 

Edited January 3, 2017 by karlos1983