Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, booferking said:

Was waiting for you around the 168hr mark thought you were in bed had giving up on us and all that

Ha - lets see where it goes tomorrow - ive seen GFS 500 mile westward movement at T96 so we are well within a correction zone @174

S

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Is this based on your thoughts regarding the ukmo model potential steve 

or am I barking up the wrong tree

thanks in advance

Yes mate - more high pressure wedged in there @168 /192 causing more digging south ....

[There's a storm a coming]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

So the first move from the GFS to allign towards the 'potential'

- note the sharpening of the trough at 174, look for more over the next 24 hours to support further pattern change as highlighted earlier

Thanks Steve. Your posts are so informative and easy to follow. Just perhaps it is the signs of a change I for certain will keep an eye out tomorrow for further enhancements 

Tasac

[Man With Beard]

As reported above, EC monthly going for cold blocking - again - after D14.

This could get seriously embarrassing for the EC if this carries on. Virtually EVERY anomaly chart it has produced beyond D14 in the past eight weeks has had a positive anomaly to our north. Virtually EVERY anomaly chart WITHIN 14 days has had a NEGATIVE anomaly. 

And it's doing it again tonight. D7-D14 (a crazy turn around from last Friday)

And then this by D21-D28

[Hotspur62]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So the first move from the GFS to allign towards the 'potential'

- note the sharpening of the trough at 174, look for more over the next 24 hours to support further pattern change as highlighted earlier

Hi Steve,to me this just looks like a tempory PM toppler. I just can"t see it being anything else. I have read your comments earlier but could you explain in simple terms how you see how potentially we could see an improvement in a cold spell incoming.Still learning and very interested in your comments.Thanks in advance.   

[radiohead]

18Z in FI...

[booferking]

If only this was 24hrs away..

[Nouska]

Week 3 anomaly from the ECM monthly.

Z500     T850 

A glimpse of the 360 hour ECM Z500 means from the 12Z run shows this picture.

Bearing in mind that the EC46 is from the 00Z run, good continuity in the contours on the 360 chart to see the pattern extend beyond.

@Man With Beard - yes, bad showing so far this winter but can a good model keep doing this badly right through? First proper rain down here, showing in the French model app, days nine and ten so high pressure looks to be waning to some extent.

 

[Jason M]

Just now, booferking said:

If only this was 24hrs away..

Yup, day 10 and beyond as always. ECM likes a bit of day 10 amplification and GFS often enjoys a Greenland high scenario in FI. Get a chart like this at day 8 and I might start to get interested (only slightly though). 

[TEITS]

I am some what encouraged by the EC predictions, thanks for posting that screenshot.

Also encouraged reading Steve M posts. I really do admire Steve M because although he has vast knowledge of many aspects of meteorology, he still uses instinct in how the model output may change. This to me is true forecasting rather than taking the output as gospel.

I see the GFS is teasing us again!

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

If only this was 24hrs away..

Yes, I thought that too. The Northern hemisphere view looks good to me too with very little pv left. You can clearly see the negative AO.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[There's a storm a coming]

3 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Yup, day 10 and beyond as always. ECM likes a bit of day 10 amplification and GFS often enjoys a Greenland high scenario in FI. Get a chart like this at day 8 and I might start to get interested (only slightly though). 

You've got to give " credit were credits due" the GFS is very persistent in giving us this set up tho

Tasac

[Nick F]

34 minutes ago, knocker said:

This is what I mentioned earlier vis the ridge

 

Interesting running the GEFS and EPS z500 mean that they both retrograde the N Pacific ridge into eastern Siberia while replacing it with low heights over Alaska and much of western N America, while downstream we see +ve height anomalies over the Atlantic shift a little west while -ve height anomalies 'grow' west across Europe including UK.

We can see this in the 18z GFS operational retrograde the Atlantic high and digging a trough over Europe much further west to bring us a northerly, northeasterly then back to northerly at the end of the run.

So, certainly some cautious optimism mid-month onwards that with the troughs and ridges shifting west enough (and with enough amplification) to allow perhaps colder N or NE flows with pressure low enough for wintry precipitation. No guarantees but all is not lost after the New Year model hangover!

[nick sussex]

Putting aside the GFS FI which is yet more fantasy rubbish designed to stop coldies from reaching for the prozac the earlier output is a painfully slow watch to see that festering Euro high get flattened.

The GFS does edge the pattern west and digs a bit more energy se'wards to the east but theres little chance for any interest as a low exiting the USA hits the PV blows up and runs east.

Overall theres little to cheer upto day 10 and the less said about the ECM46 the better because I'd rather read the tea leaves than believe anything that this  model continues to dish out.

I'm afraid we're in the type of winter where we need to stick to maximum T240hrs and not believe any changes will occur until these get into the T168hrs timeframe. The Euro highs demise has been suggested for weeks now and as we've seen this hasn't happened. Whatever amplification the outputs suggest seems unable to last the course.

Sorry if my post is less than enthused but we have spent the last 5 weeks chasing shadows. I'm not saying we won't see changes just that given the reluctance to drop heights to the south it's best to wait until this is shown consistently across the models within a realistic timeframe.

 

[Hotspur62]

AS usual the GFS gives us quite a cold picture in FI but what a messy chart!!Models all over the place and BBC N24 LRF going for quiet spell w/c 9th Jan although they did say low probability of cold but mainly dry weather from a Northerly quadrant.

 

[karlos1983]

14 minutes ago, There's a storm a coming said:

You've got to give " credit were credits due" the GFS is very persistent in giving us this set up tho

Tasac

It can have credit when it gets a D10 chart anything like correct!

it gets no credit for leading us up the garden path once a week! 

ECM ens consistent in the cool down in around 10 days time.

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by karlos1983

[Snowman.]

Heh

18z

'That GFS' and what could've been.

I'd rather not go there again.

 

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by SN0WM4N

[Hotspur62]

Just agreeing with NS this is T240 chart(I know stretching it a bit!!) on GFS 18z. Look at the Heights over the Med.They just havent changed for nearly 6 weeks 

 

!!

[Nick F]

Just for fun, Euro weeklies has the southern half of UK with below average temps in week 3

So, retrograding troughs and ridges, GFS keeps throwing out cold scenarios in FI, EPS monthlies/weeklies saying look to the east in a few weeks, just need to move that goalpost to mid-month now

[bluearmy]

We could play 'spot the spoiler' as we know something will pop up to derial the mid month cold spell. 

Im going for another mid Atlantic/w Azores  trough to keep the ridge over w Europe. 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Just agreeing with NS this is T240 chart(I know stretching it a bit!!) on GFS 18z. Look at the Heights over the Med.They just havent changed for nearly 6 weeks 

 

!!

At this rate there will be a UK drought! I'm afraid until that Euro high departs the scene then we can forget anything wintry. We have been unlucky with several easterly tragedies and the latest is the worst given the depth of cold about to hit parts of the Med! We still have time to see changes but things need to get a move on!

[Man With Beard]

45 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Week 3 anomaly from the ECM monthly.

Z500     T850 

A glimpse of the 360 hour ECM Z500 means from the 12Z run shows this picture.

Bearing in mind that the EC46 is from the 00Z run, good continuity in the contours on the 360 chart to see the pattern extend beyond.

@Man With Beard - yes, bad showing so far this winter but can a good model keep doing this badly right through? First proper rain down here, showing in the French model app, days nine and ten so high pressure looks to be waning to some extent.

 

Nouska you'd really hope it's going to get it right eventually ... but this underestimation of the PV does seem to be a habitual error? At least since I've been viewing it in the last two months.

[Nick F]

No update to the RMM MJO plots today, but be interesting to see tomorrow, if they update, if the ECM gives more amplitude to the MJO wave which is phase 7 by mid-month. This maybe hold the key to why the potential for something a little more amplified and sustained for cold and wintry weather around and from mid-month may hold more sway this time and not just another false-dawn.

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20170102/18/231/h850t850eu.png

 

This concerns me though, heights remaining in Europe.  Leap of faith from there to get the major cold outbreak GFS shows after

 

BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20170102/18/231/h850t850eu.png

 

This concerns me though, heights remaining in Europe.  Leap of faith from there to get the major cold outbreak GFS shows after

 

BFTP

And on a lot of GEFS members too, the ones that do get a NW / N flow to dig far enough to sink the EUro heights seem to be temporary affairs to me.