Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

That is not the 12z ens which i was commenting on that is 00z & 06z...

The 12z is the top one mate, the other two below are the 06z & 0z to compare.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

The 12z is the top one mate, the other two below are the 06z & 0z to compare.

As above they are getting worse losing the trend but its gfs and they are not to be followed and taking serious ecm best performing model.

[StretfordEnd1996]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

As above they are getting worse losing the trend but its gfs and they are not to be followed and taking serious ecm best performing model.

Not sure if I really agree with you on this one mate - there appears to be little or no difference at all in the GEFS 12z suit compared to previous runs in the last few days and I certainly haven't seen any dramatic increase in the number of milder runs. 

 

ECM out to 168 - let's see what happens with that WNW flow. 

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

As above they are getting worse losing the trend but its gfs and they are not to be followed and taking serious ecm best performing model.

They look pretty similiar to me personally, without analysing them in microscopic detail.  Heyo, difference of opinion, that's all.

[Singularity]

ECM appears to want to make big changes in the January transfer window 

GEFS are a right mix of faster and slower, cleaner and messier solutions to the question 'how fast and cleanly does the focus of low heights make its way over to Scandinavia in the 6-12 day period?'

Things should get interesting provided we not only see the sharp amplification signal but see the trough diving far enough west. The GEM 12z forced everything quite a way further east with shallow lows moving up from the Azores toward Iceland - a truly dire outcome and hopefully just a moment of madness from that model.

Shallow lows west of the ridge... don't you dare ECM! We could do with locking one of those lows down SW of the Azores to prop up a mid-Atlantic ridge.

[A.J]

sadly a few posts have been removed from this thread.....It's getting rather frustrating asking folk repeated requests to stay strictly on topic.....If anyone suddenly finds themselves unable to post in this thread from tonight onwards, you'll know why

[Ben Sainsbury]

I must admit further good consistency between the ECM and GFS up to T120, and thereafter we have the low moving off the east coast of US. Given previous experiences of the GFS overdoing the deepness of low pressure systems, I'm wondering if we're going to see a prolonged period of cold settled weather, (A week or two) as the high doesn't seem in much worry to move. The setup is really not too disimilar to what we saw at the beginning of December. Forecasts at that point we're for an increasing cold end to December and look where it ended up. Be interesting it see how this setup begins to change over the next week or two.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Ben Sainsbury

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

A link to that research would be appreciated.

Bah bad memory. State climate office of North Carolina, not UC. Too much reading... not enough memory cells.

I posted the composites before, but here is the site link

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html

 

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Bah bad memory. State climate office of North Carolina, not UC. Too much reading... not enough memory cells.

I posted the composites before, but here is the site link

http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/PNA.html

 

Oh I know that link but our forecast NH anomaly profile doesn't quite fit the one shown for a negative PNA

Edited January 2, 2017 by knocker

[phil nw.]

Our high continues to frustrate many of us seeking deeper cold with prospects of snow.It continues to meander around nearby keeping the real cold just across the N.Sea with us just on the margins for the next few days.

Ok we get some chilly days and frosts but essentially it still a very dry picture for the next few days until the high starts to drift south and we start to pick up a westerly flow towards the end of the week.

As we go into next week suggestions on the gefs stamps that we see more mobility of the rather cold variety from the west or north west but for many of us this is of limited interest with much of any snow usually favoured over higher ground in the north.

Just looking at the ECM take on things and again the op continues to model the high being the spoiler into next week as it has done in previous runs.

The cold air is up there to the north in spades at this time of year but currently the stubborn high sends much of the cold se into Europe.

 

[StretfordEnd1996]

ECMWF at 216 hours - 

 

And 240 hours - 

 

I wonder if those heights rolling in are trying to sink South. 

[There's a storm a coming]

ECM seems to be pushing everything a little to Far East. Hopefully over the coming days some correction west will happen. But at least GFS and ECM agreeing with the northwest flow over us and the jet diving se into Europe. We just need the high pressure to slip away westwards as well, it just ssems to want to continue its " love affair" with us

Tasac

Edited January 2, 2017 by There's a storm a coming

[nick sussex]

More underwhelming output from the ECM. The high can't retrogress north westwards as shortwave energy continues to run over the top blocking it. This then means the troughing over Scandi has no chance of backing west. Even though the PV is in bits by then we still end up with mainly zip.

I hate to use the word ghastly because the NH pattern isn't that bad but by then but its irrelevant how good or bad that is if all we see is a high meandering about blocking any wintry weather.

The GFS does eventually at least deliver even if its just some PM air but we've been here before and that spoiler energy in the Atlantic given recent events is more likely to verify than not.

 

[bluearmy]

ECM op fairly consistent - the upper ridge apparently just fades away days 10/12 according to the 00z eps - you reckon ?.? 

[Froze were the Days]

Poor 12z ECM - post 96z and heights just remain to the south west of the UK (the odd passing shot of Pm to Scotland) but other than that as Mr Sussex states all rather boring - we deserve a bit more than this after the last 3 winters, dont we?

[The PIT]

Yup nothing inspiring in todays runs. That pesky high spoiling it for us again. Pretty solid agreement right up to T144 with all the models.

[bluearmy]

The GEFS mean  anomolies look far better than flicking through the individual members  which should be a concern for coldies. 

The neg NAO looking less and less convincingly as the AO goes neg.  if you do have a decent euro trough then that's less of a problem. Otherwise, the systems will generally traverse a flattish Azores ridge and take the cold to our east. A decent euro trough and systems headed into the the trough can di so at a low enough latitude to keep the warm sectors away. 

imo, an important eps suite upcoming to see if the Atlantic ridge hangs on for longer and how it develops the sceuro low anomolies thereafter. 

[Purga]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The GEFS mean  anomolies look far better than flicking through the individual members  which should be a concern for coldies. 

The neg NAO looking less and less convincingly as the AO goes neg.  if you do have a decent euro trough then that's less of a problem. Otherwise, the systems will generally traverse a flattish Azores ridge and take the cold to our east. A decent euro trough and systems headed into the the trough can di so at a low enough latitude to keep the warm sectors away. 

imo, an important eps suite upcoming to see if the Atlantic ridge hangs on for longer and how it develops the sceuro low anomolies thereafter. 

Do you know what EC46 has shown?

[tight isobar]

Good consistency now tbf mid range!.

The uk remains 'billy no mates' while large swathes of continental /and others are at the party drinking champagne' and pulling the birds....

We are left home alone watching 1970's how to go dating on vhs..slurping cheap supermarket soon out of date larger! !!!

Need see big improvement next 3 days..for hope latter jan.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

Do you know what EC46 has shown?

Not until later.

[Purga]

Just now, knocker said:

Not until later.

Thanks Knocks - give us a nod when they're out....

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Purga said:

Do you know what EC46 has shown?

Last one showed cold I think but the problem is that they've been showing it for the last 2 months and fLICK all has ever verified.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The GEFS mean  anomolies look far better than flicking through the individual members  which should be a concern for coldies. 

The neg NAO looking less and less convincingly as the AO goes neg.  if you do have a decent euro trough then that's less of a problem. Otherwise, the systems will generally traverse a flattish Azores ridge and take the cold to our east. A decent euro trough and systems headed into the the trough can di so at a low enough latitude to keep the warm sectors away. 

imo, an important eps suite upcoming to see if the Atlantic ridge hangs on for longer and how it develops the sceuro low anomolies thereafter. 

I said that earlier but was told off i thought i might be in need for glasses but you confirmed my eyes are working well and yes i studied the individual members instead of just looking at the mean they are dire except for a few.

We are moving away from a neg NAO big time..

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The GEFS mean  anomolies look far better than flicking through the individual members  which should be a concern for coldies.

The neg NAO looking less and less convincingly as the AO goes neg.  if you do have a decent euro trough then that's less of a problem. Otherwise, the systems will generally traverse a flattish Azores ridge and take the cold to our east. A decent euro trough and systems headed into the the trough can di so at a low enough latitude to keep the warm sectors away.

imo, an important eps suite upcoming to see if the Atlantic ridge hangs on for longer and how it develops the sceuro low anomolies thereafter.

Your last sentence fills me with dread! I think we have two options going forward either the high retrogresses and allows the Scandi trough west or that shortwave energy in the Atlantic stops the retrogression and we end up in the void of nothingness. It wouldn't be so bad if one of those shortwaves ran over the top and then we saw a clearance of shortwave energy upstream allowing that retrogression as that could deliver some interest but the ECM is intent on keeping a shortwave train all the way to Bermuda! Anyway off to watch Doc Martin which is like an action film compared to the ECMs coma inducing input. I'll be back later for you to deliver your eps verdict with an emergency supply of Prozac on hand! lol

Edited January 2, 2017 by nick sussex

[chris55]

We need Glosea and EC46 on the same page. EC46 was cold and blocked last time round but going from Ian's tweets Glosea was not fully on board.

however going by the BBC monthly update today I'd guess that perhaps Glosea is coming round to a slightly more blocked pattern. But without firm confirmation it's a bit of guess work to be honest.