Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[mountain shadow]

31 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Didn't atmospheric background conditions predict a cold blocked December ??? hmmmmmmm

It has been blocked, but MLB rather than HLB

 

 

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It has been blocked, but MLB rather than HLB

 

 

Ok wrongly worded - a blocked cold December , also with winds from a possible NEly direction.  December didn't turn out how it was predicted to at the end of November

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Ok wrongly worded - a blocked cold December , also with winds from a possible NEly direction.  December didn't turn out how it was predicted to at the end of November

Sorry don't mean to pick but for the sake of accuracy, it was a blocked but mild December - CET more than 1C above average.

[Methuselah]

Anywho, our weather is a respecter of neither man nor machine! Blaming (or almost blaming) NWP machines and/or people for what the weather brings is, in a way, quite bizarre?

[The Weather Dragon]

Instead of looking and hoping past 144z keep an eye on changes in the short term. FI will very very rarely verify. Short term changes have and will develop 

[Captain Shortwave]

A lot of posts have been hidden, can we stick to the model output as there are appropriate threads for Metoffice and BBC forecasts.

 

 

Or in the general winter chat.

 

Thank you

Edited January 2, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Dennis]

some realy need to be watched in the strato Zonal Winds 1Hpa

[West is Best]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

06z going off on another tangent ...

maybe a 

 

however very unlikely !!!

Well, quite.

Another FI tease. Pleasant viewing but at this stage little more.

[stewfox]

As we have known for a while the second northerly re cira 7/8 Jan has gone and GFS now shows some variation in la la as always

No western 'adjustment' re cold pool coming up. 

6z 2/1 for 5/1

29/12 6z for 8/1 The Lord Give us

02/01 6z for 8/1 The lord take us away

I offer one solution

Edited January 2, 2017 by stewfox

[mountain shadow]

50 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Didn't atmospheric background conditions predict a cold blocked December ??? hmmmmmmm

Some of the teleconnections did not, the Atmospheric Angular Momentum went negative and the MJO was negligible remaining within the COD.

The AAM is predicted to continue to decline although the ECM MJO forecast may finally see it leave the COD and head weakly into area 8 in a couple of weeks time. There is scope therefore for some mid Atlantic ridge. Likely a toppler and probably no favourable HLB for the next 2/3 weeks.

[Purga]

Maybe a bit too much over analysis & understandable frustration at the moment in a slowly evolving move towards colder conditions.

The ENS 06z so far, are showing continuing consistency in a post mid month cold spell of some sort.

Checking the postage stamps will show that circa 50% of members develop a cold NEly flow very close to or over the UK - courtesy of a 'trigger low' moving SE.

Te ECM control run develops a cold SE flow with potential for interaction with similar LPs shifted more to the west.

Of course this may change but based on successive recent runs this is a positive sign for cold aficionados.

The degree, longevity and character of such a spell is open but the signal still appears to be there - not to mention the BBC latest outlook !

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Keep smiling!

 

[Captain Shortwave]

So again a standoff in terms of the GFS and ECM suites. The GFS offering a fairly quick return to colder conditions with an initially strong jetstream on a WNW/ESE trajectory before perhaps cold weather becoming more entrenched.

      

Again the Euro trough anomaly intensifies as we move through week two.

ECM ens 

   

As we can see the ECM keeps the higher heights closer to the UK hence drier in the south and generally milder at the surface, though wind and rain at times in the north.

As for the earlier timeframes, I would only suggest that people go to their favourite Greek resorts as the same places that bask in summer heat will soon be buried in a lot of snow by the end of the week with a severe cold blast from the north east occurs.

850s only 16C below average in places. You can only laugh at moments like this really. Fingers crossed we see some better luck soon. 

Oh by the way, don't look at the surface/500mb charts for day 5, especially those who are not immune to be a bit of innuendo....... 

Edited January 2, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[karlos1983]

Interest for me now is as we enter mid month (ish) clearly highlighted by the ens 2m temps as the next window of opportunity for cold/snow chances. 

 

 

[damianslaw]

Models all showing a continuation of what has been a long protracted blocked period since August really, with only shortlived punctuations of atlantic driven zonal conditions. As ever we remain on the wrong side of the block still for anything significantly colder than average, but never that far away from such results it seems.. 

GFS still keen to show more pronounced trough and ridge features - i.e. more of an amplified flow, with the euro trough digging in deep into central europe, consequently keeping the ridge slightly further to the west, meaning we end up with some colder PM zonal shots, ECM less keen on this, hence the ridge is shown to centre closer to the country to the SW, meaning generally quieter milder conditions at the surface, with lighter westerly drift, with less cold NW incursions. 

All rather average never particularly wintry stuff for the first part of January, far from very wet stormy and very mild, conditions that have plagued many a first part to Jan in recent years. Thankfully we should see some decent sunny periods, in what is traditionally a very dull quite depressing part of the year- which will do wonders for those with new years blues.

Would be nice though to see a cold snowy blast mid month, even if temporary, we managed one last Jan 15-17 in what was otherwise an exceptionally mild month. A word on today, it is beautiful blue skies and crisp clear here, fells etched perfectly, pity there is little snow about as it would be perfect alpine conditions, after an air frost, and a cold night to come. 

 

 

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Interest for me now is as we enter mid month (ish) clearly highlighted by the ens 2m temps as the next window of opportunity for cold/snow chances. 

 

 

the really cold uppers are now well away from our shores. Good job it's January! 

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the really cold uppers are now well away from our shores. Good job it's January! 

January 2nd! Plenty of time, plenty of opportunities no doubt. 

Mine thing this ens aren't is mild! Majority anyway. Talking mid month!

Edited January 2, 2017 by karlos1983

[ArHu3]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the really cold uppers are now well away from our shores. Good job it's January! 

this is very frustrating, even more so for me in the Netherlands, it seems the whole of Europe, even Spain Southern France and North Africa and of course Greece and Turkey will get winter except the Netherlands and Britain, it's like the cold knows where the borders are

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by ArHu3

[blizzard81]

10 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

this is very frustrating, even more so for me in the Netherlands, it seems the whole of Europe, even Spain Southern France and North Africa and of course Greece and Turkey will get winter except the Netherlands and Britain, it's like the cold knows where the borders are

 

Indeed. This seems to be a common theme in recent winters.

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. This seems to be a common theme in recent winters.

We are only an Atlantic ridge away though!

[Weathizard]

Looking at the ensemble suites for the ECM & GFS, I personally buy more into the ECM suite... high pressure has been very tough to shift for us for months now, predominantly dry with stuttered wetter interludes from the west/nw.

Ive noticed the ENS seem to have been keen for a long time to reduce pressure around us at day 10, until it gets into a more reliable timeframe at which point we see the MLB/high pressure regime remaining dominant.

At least it's not the zonal train with rampant jet, although it's probably an equally as stagnant pattern

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

We are only an Atlantic ridge away though!

The ridge is more than enough to keep the frigid uppers from our shores unfortunately. We just can't win. If it's not a low steaming in from the atlantic, it's a ridge toppling over us. Truly jinxed!

Edited January 2, 2017 by blizzard81

[BARRY]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Looking at the ensemble suites for the ECM & GFS, I personally buy more into the ECM suite... high pressure has been very tough to shift for us for months now, predominantly dry with stuttered wetter interludes from the west/nw.

Ive noticed the ENS seem to have been keen for a long time to reduce pressure around us at day 10, until it gets into a more reliable timeframe at which point we see the MLB/high pressure regime remaining dominant.

At least it's not the zonal train with rampant jet, although it's probably an equally as stagnant pattern

it's always D10 never 9 or 11 but always D10

[nick sussex]

More painful viewing this morning with the wretched high pressure remaining too far east on the ECM. The GFS desperately tries to drop heights further west but the ECM is determined to keep the tedium going. Any interest skirts round the top of the high and the UK remains in the void of nothingness.

The ECM then adds insult to injury by trying to bring the Russian high westwards but likely another tease with too much energy running to the ne.

Then in the game of lets torture coldies further the GFS 06hrs run brings a shortwave se at T192hrs but of course too far east with loads of cold air to the ne but with no chance of getting further west because of the next bout of Atlantic energy heading east.

The ECM ensembles have given up the pretence and the wind directions tell a sorry story. We seem to be stuck in a rut with anything remotely interesting remaining well into FI on the GEFS.

Any amplification that does show up is unable to last through to the more reliable timeframe.

Until we see heights drop to the south then theres no chance of anything of interest and I'll believe outputs that show that when this appears within T168hrs. My advice ignore any fantasy rubbish dished out by the operational  outputs or GEFS until changes are shown within that timeframe.

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by nick sussex

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, BARRY said:

it's always D10 never 9 or 11 but always D10

Based usually on last chart on ECM at 240, 240, day 10, also last high resolution chart on GFS, 252 day 11 on GFS low resolution deep FI

Edited January 2, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Ali1977]

Very warm on the Eastern seaboard by mid Jan, often a great sign for a U.K. freeze...charts looking better from next weekend and I have a feeling they will keep trending colder and further west.