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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A quick look at the ecm which is quite similar to the GFS until next week when it has the whole caboodle a little further east  The upstream energy as well as running NE continues to feed the low pressure area to the south west which facilitates the ridging of the HP but as it is further east the trough, although adjacent to the  UK is also further east as is most of the inclement weather. Fine margins.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_10.png

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
28 minutes ago, radiohead said:

A quick glimpse at the interesting 0Z GEFS members

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

Looks colder for sure - you have to wonder about GFS - is that garden path being re-laid

Edited by Banbury
To snip long quote.
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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
44 minutes ago, Banbury said:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=London

Looks colder for sure - you have to wonder about GFS - is that garden path being re-laid

Im not going to get hung up gfs myself this time if ecm dont agree best we can get is a watered down version at best if we are lucky once bitten twice shy ..

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
51 minutes ago, radiohead said:

A quick glimpse at the interesting 0Z GEFS members

gens-0-1-336.pnggens-1-1-324.pnggens-2-1-240.pnggens-4-1-384.pnggens-6-1-372.pnggens-7-1-216.pnggens-10-1-384.pnggens-11-1-336.pnggens-14-1-384.pnggens-15-1-312.pnggens-16-1-324.pnggens-17-1-372.pnggens-19-1-336.png

i just wondering what the cherry picked charts really have to do with todays model runs?

granted lovely charts, but absolutely just cherry picked charts as none of todays outputs reflect this.

as i said last week pretty settled cool start for first 2 weeks of jan.

theres no neg nao strong vortex and pretty boring mjo jet stream still not wanting to take a holiday either.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The GEFS now slightly slower on dropping the trough and associated lower heights across w Europe and the eps slightly  yesterday's 12z suite. however, we retain that hangback at day 10 and the latest ECM op is an indication of how we may retain the ridge too Far East whilst the cold is close and possibly here  but not unsettled close. 

beyond day  11/12, all the three ens are in agreement with the much touted pattern of sceuro trough backing west and low anomolies across Europe.  The Canadian looking more like it could be flow more east of north whilst the eps look cyclonic around the sceuro low anomoly. The GEFS further west still. How the detail would pan out remains unclear but the current GFS op looks a little quick and too far west whilst the last two paras are more likely to be represtitive of where we currently sit. 

trends this morning within that overall pattern are the eps still  looking flatter to our west with almost no inclination to raise heights very far north - s Greenland neutral anomoly.  The other two models are no longer showing much mean ridging in that locale but still show a propensity to raise them with above average anomolies persisting though given what climatology says, this is likely just showing a lack of vortex there! 

And the Canadian more than hinting at a possible height rise to our north east above the trough by day 15/16 which is where it's idea of a flow east of north comes from. 

Anyway, as nick pointed out yesterday, it's a long drift to get those euro heights to drop to our south and whilst we now have the action in the day 10/12 day timeframe across the ens suites, there is more than enough evidence that the hangback from the Atlantic high could keep us under blocking with the pattern further to the east come verification. 

That all says to take the current GFS op continuity of dropping the trough by day 10 with a fairly large dose of salt. imo, I would wait for the para to begin singing the same song at that timescale. 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning All :)

The key moment for me in the morning's output is over the other side of the Atlantic at T+192 - this is the ECM 00Z OP output:

ECH1-192.GIF?02-12

The LP coming through Newfoundland gets in front of the strong cold HP ridge (mentioned by John H yesterday) and cuts off the HP leaving the Azores HP to remain in situ without retrogression.

GFS at the same time:

gfsnh-0-192.png

Note how the HP ridge manages to "link" with the Atlantic HP and cut off the LP moving NNE past Newfoundland. This enables the later retrogression.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

Good morning all.

Clearly a good GFS 0z run in FI. However, after the fiasco of recent days, which as one or two correctly said was forecast first by UKMO, I think most of us will be circumspect. That's particularly true as the ensembles aren't brilliant. 

A case of a thousand times bitten eventually shy.

Screen Shot 2017-01-02 at 10.16.27.png

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
6 minutes ago, radiohead said:

I don't think it's a "cherry pick" when about 50% of the members are offering up some cold/snowy patterns within that timeframe.

please dont take offence but them 50% are all dream charts that are not supported by atmospheric background conditions.

im not saying they wont happen but very unlikely.

from what im seeing is largely heights over at least the south will be frost fog at times.

but nothing in most of the models that reflect anything remotely cold enough or unsettled enough the gem in its latter stages does open up a arctic flow but no support from the ukmo gfs or ecm.

with vortex and jet stream profile for the coming period even into fi shows very little if northeasterly or easterly is to your taste.

although i dont see above average temps dominating for sometime but this could change depending on position of where heights set up.

certainly no greenland block neither scandi block but mid lat block holding for the mean time.

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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

A most unMurrlike winter, even straws to clutch are ignored. Come on Steve ditch reality and join us in Layla land, lol.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Looking at todays models and anyone seeing anything in the reliable time frames showing any major interest i salute you!!!

In truth the nhp isnt showing a split-hlb ete.its i guess normal"for the uk" west to east movement with the usual ridge in the atlantic.Its not blow torch sw winds and heavy rain and i guess thats a plus.im off macro for my industrial size box of straws.enjoy your day .uto

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

please dont take offence but them 50% are all dream charts that are not supported by atmospheric background conditions.

im not saying they wont happen but very unlikely.

from what im seeing is largely heights over at least the south will be frost fog at times.

but nothing in most of the models that reflect anything remotely cold enough or unsettled enough the gem in its latter stages does open up a arctic flow but no support from the ukmo gfs or ecm.

with vortex and jet stream profile for the coming period even into fi shows very little if northeasterly or easterly is to your taste.

although i dont see above average temps dominating for sometime but this could change depending on position of where heights set up.

certainly no greenland block neither scandi block but mid lat block holding for the mean time.

'Not saying they won't happen' 'Certainly no HLB' Well thanks for telling us all that, certainly no HLB, we can call pack up now as you know what weather is coming many weeks in advance.:rofl:

Its not cherry picking in the slightest, if it was one or two peturbs then yes but this is nearly 50% of the ENS suite, although I don't see it happening either but that's just because they never do really!

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
12 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

please dont take offence but them 50% are all dream charts that are not supported by atmospheric background conditions.

 

Seems to have been pretty irrelevant this winter whether what the models show is or isn't backed up by "atmospheric background conditions"

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
9 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Seems to have been pretty irrelevant this winter whether what the models show is or isn't backed up by "atmospheric background conditions"

Didn't atmospheric background conditions predict a cold blocked December ??? hmmmmmmm

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

As Steve Murr's suggested, the models are going off on tangents...I think that that must be due to the seemingly everlasting rut that the weathers seems to be in just now....If there is such as thing as 'model default', then a kind of default towards 'changeable' mightn't be too far from reality; except of course in one-off years like this one, in which meaningful change has become conspicuous by its absence?:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
25 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Didn't atmospheric background conditions predict a cold blocked December ??? hmmmmmmm

they did indeed and was pretty much correct.

but then we had down tick in vortex temps and intensification with jet firing up in december the northern arm of the jet was weaker but through december it started to dominate.

and the SOI INDEX is very much in a nina atmospheric state.

 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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