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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Waltham Abbey, West Essex 144ft a.s.l.

I seem to recal GP saying that the high would retrogress in the second half of Jan. Will be interesting to see what happens!

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Having seen the 00Zs, it's time for my obituary on the "easterly".

The new ECM's consistency in December have me confidence to believe in it for the height rises to and beyond the UK.

Alas, I gave the model too much credit. It was clear all along that the development of the easterly depended upon a very complex arrangement of interconnecting lows in the mid-Atlantic to allow the necessary ridge to form. If I'd thought about it, I would have known the precise arrangement was unlikely unless modelled within T72. Lesson learned ... again!!

I would add a positive though - it looks likely that heights are going low over Europe by week 2. That may bring us closer to another northerly shot before too long.

That's very true!

it was like a domino effect, how those Atlantic lows behaved had huge impact on everything thereafter.

That is why we saw such a big swing in the mid range.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Looks like Austria going into the freezer later in the week. Will be a shock over here with such low uppers after the mild, sunny Christmas and New Year. Still on the cold side for much of England and Wales.

C

GFSOPME06_111_2.png

Certainly does C, And as you say still on the cold side for England & Wales. Especially the East coast by Thur/Friday.

b.pngc.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Happy New Year all.

Hopefully that high over Newfoundland can punch up into the PV and get some HLB going around day 10

IMG_3939.PNG

Could we get the Atlantic ridge to meet with that polar high!!

 

I THINK IT WILL....

IMG_3940.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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Morning All-

happy NYE

Were out the game now for another 10-14 days which is a real pity-

I put in the post x2 days ago UKMO was building an increase in the jet over the atlantic over day 6-7 & that is now manifesting in all models in the form of a strongly positive AO again from days 6-10

The 60N zonal wind forecast differ from GFS to ECM

GFS after a brief drop to the climo norm shows 20/21 members increased to above normal in the last timestamps - the mean being about 50 M/S around the end of week 2 Jan ( about 10-15 shy of the positive record )

ECM has the 60N 10 & 30 HPA zonal winds tailing off slightly however higher winds migrating towards 70 & 80N inline with a stronger tighter vortex-

If we go back to the very start of the modelled cold - A greenland high was never on the cards despite a few GFS runs of HLB, the very best was a MLB which has occured to far east.

The CFS forecast of a SSW has now rolled over into Feb - So forget that for Jan

All in all there are NO cold backround signals now for Jan - very much alligned to a repeat of December-

* WQBO

* +VE Strat zonal wind index

* MJO delivering nothing wave wise stuck in COD

* No trop / strat disconnect.

Jan CET est - 4 - 8c depending on final HP locales. No HLB expected out to week 3, MLB - 2 max with a moderate -EPO ridge being 1 & weak oscillations of -PNA, Atlantic & Scandi Ridges...

This will be an excellent poss historic winter for Turkey & Greece.

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

WOW, don't believe it'll happen though.

IMG_3941.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All-

happy NYE

Were out the game now for another 10-14 days which is a real pity-

I put in the post x2 days ago UKMO was building an increase in the jet over the atlantic over day 6-7 & that is now manifesting in all models in the form of a strongly positive AO again from days 6-10

The 60N zonal wind forecast differ from GFS to ECM

 

 

presumably that's why the GEFS AO more positive then the eps which are fairly neutral before dropping neg in tandem, with all three models. Canadian more akin to the eps than the GEFS.  Whilst I agree that there is definitely a northern arm strengthening, I do see more retrogression likely (via the cold ridge coming off e Canada post T200) to force the jet nw/se - however, still means we are unlikely to see anything other than surface cold within next 12 days. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Just now, Ali1977 said:

WOW, don't believe it'll happen though.

IMG_3941.PNG

That's via the Canadian ridge I mentioned but it's exacerbated by a polar ridge which isn't in the other modelling just yet so probably best to ignore the remainder of this run as skewed by it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

So it's all eyes to the N/NW, Even some Heights over the Poles showing into the run and some ridging up into Greenland..

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
2 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

So it's all eyes to the N/NW, Even some Heights over the Poles showing into the run.

a.pngb.png

You have to admit Polar, it seems we have been looking at 12 day charts forever.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
29 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Certainly does C, And as you say still on the cold side for England & Wales. Especially the East coast by Thur/Friday.

b.pngc.png

 

Yes PM seems fairly certain now for us. However, chopping and changing still going on in the models for week 2. Latest GFS sends the cold your way post 240t and mild upper into Eastern Euroland. Meanwhile we will have to get ready for the severe cold later this week and probabaly some snow as well especially in Austria. Fingers crossed for you guys week 2 . Looking good this morning.for that period.

 C

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

That's via the Canadian ridge I mentioned but it's exacerbated by a polar ridge which isn't in the other modelling just yet so probably best to ignore the remainder of this run as skewed by it. 

Are the eps still showing EPO still negative after D10 or is it now suppressing the Pacific Ridge like the GEFS?

Looking at this morning's GEFS the ex-Pacific heights are ejected into High Latitude causing all sorts of uncertainty vis PV flow? All post D10 so usual caveats as to trends.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Morming Steve - HNY. Fingers crossed we can see the models turn around a bit. Not great viewing the last 48 hours.

Just on this point above - actually we have something fishy going on because strat forecasts and the trop actually seem quite out of sync. Lower strat modelling has a very disrupted pattern at 150 and indeed there is a near split at layers above this image:

ecmwf150f240.gif

 

Clear signal for heights to our NE.... and yet the ECM op from last night shows almost zero regard for this strat forcing

ECH1-240.GIF?01-12

I think this is quite unusual. The 150hpa image usually bears reasonable resemblance to trop forecasts give or take a bit of movement..... but here we have a trop vortex centre forecast to sit over scandy where the strat sees a ridge.

So actually there is some kind of disconnect going on... though apparently not in our favour at the moment! It is one of a few reasons why I remain cautiously optimistic that January wont be a write off. I'm not going to repeat myself having posted a lot in recent days - but there are forcings working in our favour still (though admittedly - as said over and over they are not strong at the moment...) and this means there is room for change. 

We will see. Here's hoping the forecast strat profile, along with some of those weak ongoing forcings, can turn things around again.

Until you look at yesterday's day 10 op from which the Berlin chart is derived catcol ....

IMG_0551.PNG

 

Seems reasonable now ...

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
9 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

You have to admit Polar, it seems we have been looking at 12 day charts forever.

Every day 365 days a year Stuie. Everything has to start somewhere, And the Models certainly give us that guidance. 

Very well put Catacol^

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
4 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Yes PM seems fairly certain now for us. However, chopping and changing still going on in the models for week 2. Latest GFS sends the cold your way post 240t and mild upper into Eastern Euroland. Meanwhile we will have to get ready for the severe cold later this week and probabaly some snow as well especially in Austria. Fingers crossed for you guys week 2 . Looking good this morning.for that period.

 C

You have to laugh and dream at this latest chart from GFS. Polar lows in N Sea in that deep cold upper flow, at same time far reaches of SE  Europe go into warm plume. Hope this chart works for you lot, its a snow feast.

 C

GFSOPEU06_312_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Until you look at yesterday's day 10 op from which the Berlin chart is derived catcol ....

IMG_0551.PNG

 

Seems reasonable now ...

Yep - much closer match with that run. Strat forecast for a lower strat ridge in our locale has been consistent for several days. Hence any op run that wipes out any semblance of a ridge at trop level feels out of step....

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Not what I'd call an 'inspiring' run, that...Sort of back to square one, or square two or even square three. Models and pros are all struggling to see the way forward, I think?

Interesting though!:D

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Are the eps still showing EPO still negative after D10 or is it now suppressing the Pacific Ridge like the GEFS?

Looking at this morning's GEFS the ex-Pacific heights are ejected into High Latitude causing all sorts of uncertainty vis PV flow? All post D10 so usual caveats as to trends.

Was going to post this for you but thought it might get lost so good you asked

ops take it almost neutral by day 10

gefs, having taken it positive by the 9th on yesterday's runs now delayed till the 12th

eps, having taken it up to -1 by day 10 yesterday, now don't get it above -2. There is no reading I can see for the 10-15 day period although the eps keep a mean ridge throughout though it goes from the strong GOA ridge we see this week to become a fairly sharp aleutian ridge well into the Arctic as the suite progresses 

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Posted
  • Location: Derby
  • Location: Derby
2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Not what I'd call an 'inspiring' run, that...Sort of back to square one, or square two or even square three. Models and pros are all struggling to see the way forward, I think?

Interesting though!:D

From square one we will be watching all 64 models. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

It would appear the ecm op was an outlier, so that would tie in with your musings @Catacol ? 

IMG_5109.PNG

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