Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[West is Best]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Im not saying discount it, but the UKMO is the 2nd best model, GFS the 3rd.

Therefore it is statisically more probable the UKMO will be nearer the mark. 

I'm sorry but that really is quite absurd.

GFS is way, way, out ahead of the others by a million miles. You may not always like it but it's the gold standard. The others just make up the numbers, relatively speaking.

Edited December 29, 2016 by West is Best

[weatherguy]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Indeed - day 10 is close to an easterly (of sorts).

Okay I'm gloating a tad now, perhaps I've actually learnt some stuff here in the past few years 

Bitter cold on its way again.  Still could be a stonking run from the 12z....evolution is a bit more complex than the 6z however

Edited December 29, 2016 by weatherguy

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of surface cold under the high

[andymusic]

12z still looking potentially good as from around 6th -7th Jan - but not as good as the 6z - so the gfs is "playing" around with some cold/snow ideas - but at this far out - who knows how bad/good it might get

Just to add a full on BEASTERLY in FI - wowsers

 

could be game on if these sorts of output keep coming

 

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Given the Winter so far, this is an excellent chart but well into FI

There's strong support for a northerly reload around that timeframe, so perhaps a very plausible and sensible outcome from GFS 12z, I wouldn't fret look NE..

 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I tapped the wrong timeframe on UKMO 00z - the 168 was poor- sorry 

GFS still a stonking run - just enough of a wedge & plenty of snow about

 

 

 

Oh dear! Worst news of the day as the ukmo 12z looks very similar. I disagree with some on here who see potential in that 144hr chart. The high pressure cell off the eastern seaboard has weakened from the 120hr chart. The low over the central US looks like steam rolling through.

[bluearmy]

The GFS 06z was in line with the ECM is having the lower heights south of the blocking by day 9/10 and therefore putting less forcing on the Atlantic ridge. the 12z is mor GFS ish in placing too much energy into the northern arm which collapses the ridge east but it seems that promotes a decent chance of an easterly anyway. could be in of those win win periods of model watching coming in in th mid term before a shortwave pops is in a few days to scupper the whole thing! 

[booferking]

Ah she is another beauty this one..

[PersianPaladin]

Beast From The East........

[Summer Sun]

Easterly anyone?

[Ali1977]

WOW, checked back 5 mins after the 200 chart and we have a beast - didn't see that but what a run again

[weatherguy]

1 word....BOOM! 

Anyone fancy some battleground blizzards?

Edited December 29, 2016 by weatherguy

[IDO]

Choices choices:

O6z:  12z: 

Always good that both setups lead to cold...

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The GFS 06z was in line with the ECM is having the lower heights south of the blocking by day 9/10 and therefore putting less forcing on the Atlantic ridge. the 12z is mor GFS ish in placing too much energy into the northern arm which collapses the ridge east but it seems that promotes a decent chance of an easterly anyway. could be in of those win win periods of model watching coming in in th mid term before a shortwave pops is in a few days to scupper the whole thing! 

What do you think to the ukmo BA?

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

I'm sorry but that really is quite absurd.

GFS is way, way, out ahead of the others by a million miles. You may not always like it but it's the gold standard. The others just make up the numbers, relatively speaking.

Ummm - are you grinning right now?? Even the most die hard Amis are fully aware that their model leaves a lot to be desired when compared to their Euro rivals....

Having said that - GFS has a habit in my opinion of picking up on trends at the extended range when the other models struggle. The specifics will never be the same when T+0 comes around... but be careful not to ignore GFS trends at 240 - 300h and from this perspective your respect for GFS has some weight. 

Will be very interested to see the clusters later on. Would also very much like to see a UK +192 chart because I suspect those wringing their hands right now about that 144 chart might feel a bit better...

[Ali1977]

These ENS could have some belters, what a day of model watching. 

[bluearmy]

Funny that the same deepening depression turns up in the west Atlantic on two consec ops post day 10. 

And WIB, you do make me chuckle sometimes! 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Ummm - are you grinning right now?? Even the most die hard Amis are fully aware that their model leaves a lot to be desired when compared to their Euro rivals....

Having said that - GFS has a habit in my opinion of picking up on trends at the extended range when the other models struggle. The specifics will never be the same when T+0 comes around... but be careful not to ignore GFS trends at 240 - 300h and from this perspective your respect for GFS has some weight. 

Will be very interested to see the clusters later on. Would also very much like to see a UK +192 chart because I suspect those wringing their hands right now about that 144 chart might feel a bit better...

How do you see the ukmo 168 and 192?

[That ECM]

Flipping heck all gone wrong  mild bit!! 

[Jason M]

I think although GFS is not the top performing model, its more useful to the forum than the others because it gives us so much more information than the other models so we can see the ensemble suites in detail plus with four runs a day its easier to judge continuity between runs.

[Banbury]

Cold in a brisk Easterly

That's enough stupidity from me, now to take stock of the ENS

[northwestsnow]

ukmo 144 looks and sounds like the meto mrf update to me? Its not a disaster but it really isnt a patch on the ecm 0z or the gfs12z,...the high has sunk ar 144.

[Summer Sun]

An easterly to southerly in 3 days

[karlos1983]

I was going off the GFS and then the last 2 runs happened 

Edited December 29, 2016 by karlos1983

[MattTarrant]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The GFS 06z was in line with the ECM is having the lower heights south of the blocking by day 9/10 and therefore putting less forcing on the Atlantic ridge. the 12z is mor GFS ish in placing too much energy into the northern arm which collapses the ridge east but it seems that promotes a decent chance of an easterly anyway. could be in of those win win periods of model watching coming in in th mid term before a shortwave pops is in a few days to scupper the whole thing! 

I have to agree completely with you on that one. The GFS doing its usual 'spinning up mega low pressures' thing by the end of the run. Still that Northerly is quite potent! *Note the Northerly I mention is nothing to do with the chart!

Edited December 29, 2016 by MattTarrant