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Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.


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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
20 minutes ago, LRD said:

You're looking at the red 1981-2010 mean, surely? I'm looking at the thick black line. That's the ensemble mean

Uhh.. the red line on that chart is the mean, the black line is the GFS OP.

Better start to the ECM 12z this evening, more inline with the UKMO.. Edit: or not

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
25 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

I really think with the difficulty of modeling a split Atlantic jet it is even more advisable to view the operational charts beyond days 4/5 with an open mind.........

 

I see what your saying, to me this is far from over yet, I still think that high will end up slightly further NW as I'm sure I see on the charts for the 4th it's gradually moving further NW and the trough to the east being closer the UK. That's what I think anyway

Edited by phil nw.
Removed long quote
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 minute ago, booferking said:

ECM following from last nights run..

ECM1-144 (2).gif

ECM1-120 (3).gif

stronger ridge in western atlantic that always turned into a euro high in other runs 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Uhh.. the red line on that chart is the mean, the black line is the GFS OP.

Better start to the ECM 12z this evening, more inline with the UKMO.. Edit: or not

Sorry pal. That's wrong. The thick black line is the ensemble mean. The red line the 81-10 mean. Look at the key bottom left

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Uhh.. the red line on that chart is the mean, the black line is the GFS OP.

Better start to the ECM 12z this evening, more inline with the UKMO

Its the same as last nights run better to compare a model with its previous run better for consistency.

 

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

stronger ridge in western atlantic that always turned into a euro high in other runs 

Its the same as last night run there will be that is mirco difference but it is the same we have consistency unlike other models

And you have 168 chart if thats not consistency then i dont know what is..

ECM1-144 (3).gif

ECM1-168 (3).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Man of kent
  • Location: Man of kent

To my eyes the UKMO 144hrs is almost the same as the ECM 144hrs...that's good enough for me going forward at least we have some consistency between the top 2 models. Let's see what "trends " follow with the ECM for the rest of its output

tasac

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
3 minutes ago, There's a storm a coming said:

To my eyes the UKMO 144hrs is almost the same as the ECM 144hrs...that's good enough for me going forward at least we have some consistency between the top 2 models. Let's see what "trends " follow with the ECM for the rest of its output

tasac

I can tell you now. The rest of the ECM will show a cold plunge into Europe (Germany eastwards) with high pressure centred just to the W of the UK. Rather boring really.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Can the Siberian ridge come into play - it  is straw time.

ECH1-168.GIF?31-0

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
12 minutes ago, LRD said:

Sorry pal. That's wrong. The thick black line is the ensemble mean. The red line the 81-10 mean. Look at the key bottom left


Red Line = moyenne.

moyenne = Mean.

Black Line = Run GFS

You're right, it does say it at the bottom. On the Wetterzentrale ENS charts the red line is the 81-10 mean, on these ones it's the ensemble mean.

ECM is really blowing up that high over the UK, hopefully we can get some amplification from it, anything to save us from todays model runs so far.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Not ideal for fast route to cold 

IMG_5088.PNG

:lazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

It's not hard to sum up the ECM Det run.

Two words.......

Cold 

Dry

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Posted
  • Location: Man of kent
  • Location: Man of kent
5 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I can tell you now. The rest of the ECM will show a cold plunge into Europe (Germany eastwards) with high pressure centred just to the W of the UK. Rather boring really.

Haha. "Back to square one then", 

tasac

Edited by There's a storm a coming
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, AWD said:

It's not hard to sum up the ECM Det run.

Two words.......

Cold 

Dry

I can think of a 3rd, maybe a 4th and 5th come to mention it 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:


Red Line = moyenne.

moyenne = Mean.

Black Line = Run GFS

You're right, it does say it at the bottom. On the Wetterzentrale ENS charts the red line is the 81-10 mean, on these ones it's the ensemble mean.

ECM is really blowing up that high over the UK, hopefully we can get some amplification from it, anything to save us from todays model runs so far.

Yep, the red line is the 81-10 mean on there too

Black line - ensemble average

Green - the op

I can't see the word 'moyenne' on this chart. Are we talking about the same graph?

Capture.PNG

That's it on this as it's cluttering up the thread but no way is that red line on the above chart for the 31 Dec 2016 12z the ensemble mean. Sorry but it just isn't 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

I am still puzzled what I am missing with the UKMO D6 chart; it looks like its going the same way as the GFS?

UW144-21.gif

You have two waves from the south feeding into a core high; that will blow the UK high up; what are others seeing?

If there was one wave then a ridge would build north. Having seen many of these charts that is invariably the solution with two waves as equal pressure attracts.

Anyway the UKMO will just prop up the UK high at D7 and push the trough east; ergo no northerly, though not as far east as the ECM.

Conclusion the models OPs are getting cross model agreement and the ensembles will follow in due course. There will be background noise giving false dawns, but this is a poor pattern for cold now it has gone this way. As for upper temps, slightly below average as a whole, with potential for faux cold with the core centred over the UK. No route to snowy/wintry stuff for at least 10 days, likely longer.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

Well, the models seem to come in some kind of agreement which is bad news as they don't agree on anything wintry.

 

Some call the outlook col and dry, I'd say chilly. Only tomorrow and Monday look cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Man of kent
  • Location: Man of kent

I remember fergie from the met office saying a few weeks back that the longer term ideas were for a large high pressure to be just to west of us and " wo and behold" there it is. We really need to take notice more of the snippets we get from him as the majority of the time they are pretty close when looking long term

tasac

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Would the last cold and snow lover still awake please turn out the lights! Tedious output from the ECM upto T216hrs with never enough upstream amplitude to draw the Scandi troughing westwards. Instead as has been the case for weeks the place to be is in the eastern Med!

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

Usual day 10 tease coming up from the ECM? Heights rising in Scandi at d9

Almost, just too much energy in the northern arm.

Edited by Gustywind
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
9 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep, the red line is the 81-10 mean on there too

Black line - ensemble average

Green - the op

I can't see the word 'moyenne' on this chart. Are we talking about the same graph?

 

That's it on this as it's cluttering up the thread but no way is that red line on the above chart for the 31 Dec 2016 12z the ensemble mean. Sorry but it just isn't 

The red is the mean 1981-2010

The black line is the ens avg mean on this output

 

Capture.PNG This may help

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

More Scand high attempts at day 10 or so, if I had a pound for every time we saw a greeny/scandi high at day 10 not materialise I'd be a very rich man. Very frustrating winter so far continuing with today's charts

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

The red is the mean 1981-2010

The black line is the ens avg mean on this output

 

Thank you for confirming. I thought I was going mad!

ECM - cold, dry and boring. Something setting up at Day 10 but best not to get to involved in that at this stage

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