Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[SMU]

4 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

Hi Steve

I read your posts regularly and have learnt a lot from you.however your post has left me some what confused "I'm afraid it over"what is over,nothing has begun has it?

 C.S

Whats over ? 

The projected secondary cold spell & any subsequent deep cold after that.  

S

 

[Dennis]

o boy  very quick NE-E-ly ?

[ArHu3]

Big changes in UKMO, compared to yesterday and on short notice too. Good or bad? (in short term is seems better for me in the netherlands at least)

 

Edited December 31, 2016 by ArHu3

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Dennis said:

o boy  very quick NE-E-ly ?

Northeasterly for the Alps

[Gael_Force]

5 minutes ago, Dennis said:

o boy  very quick NE-E-ly ?

Oh dear! I think I see now why all the charts with no explanation. The flow round a high is clockwise.

[booferking]

Ukmo looks better to me really close to Easterly.

[karyo]

Just now, booferking said:

Ukmo looks better to me really close to Easterly.

The best thing about it for me is the high pressure at the southern tip of Greenland. The easterly is out of touch for us.

[karlos1983]

GFS and ukmo at 120

UKMO looks better to me, PV lobes separated still and looks more amplified 

would love to see 168 chart @carinthian

Edited December 31, 2016 by karlos1983

[ArHu3]

1 minute ago, Gael_Force said:

Oh dear! I think I see now why all the charts with no explanation. The flow round a high is clockwise.

He's from the Netherlands, so we get a NE

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Ukmo looks better to me really close to Easterly.

Much better IMO

[Backtrack]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Ukmo looks better to me really close to Easterly.

But at this time frame, is there really time for a big enough shift westwards? I think not. 'Close but no cigar' comes to mind....as usual. 

[radiohead]

As in the 06Z GFS, the tongue of very cold air is pointing down towards Greece on the 12Z GFS at this point.

[Gael_Force]

4 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

He's from the Netherlands, so we get a NE

Tell him to put his location on his profile, we are Brits assuming comment for UK. Your Noreasterly was a blink and miss it anyway.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Gael_Force

[radiohead]

UKMO T144 also sending very cold air down towards Greece/Italy, looks even more frigid than the GFS. Though perhaps we could eventually get something interesting if we could see where this ended up by T192? We would need the low pressure to our north to quickly head southeast.

[karyo]

Well, a slight improvement in the 12z GFS with a bit more high pressure out in the Atlantic and the East Canada low is further west and north but sadly that block to the east stops the chance for any northerly to develop.

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

But at this time frame, is there really time for a big enough shift westwards? I think not. 'Close but no cigar' comes to mind....as usual. 

I think it's what it does for our chances a little further down the line, rather than having no chance of cold for 10 days more 

[Weathizard]

You couldn't make it up could you... Now the UKMO after being the party pooper is way better than the GFS! The 144 chart is nice moving forward the GFS is garbag IMO.

And let me guess this time the UKM will be wrong... Sod's law!

Edited December 31, 2016 by Weathizard

[There's a storm a coming]

I think the UKMO 144hrs is not a million miles away from this mornings ecm at 144hrs. I think that low to the north will dive south east and bring a northwest/northerly wind to us as the high over us moves west and then eventually and slowly back to be over us just as the ecm frames 168 hrs onwards show. Still a possible tweaking and a more northeasterly at day 10

tasac

Edited December 31, 2016 by There's a storm a coming

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Quite, and particularly with Easterlies, AT NO  POINT has any ensemble suite had more than 50% of members bringing an Easterly with proper frigid uppers into the UK. so its never been odds on.

Maybe the models should have had less than 5% showing an easterly if they were performing well?

UKMO now improving down the line at t144, I still really think that  models are only disheartening for the very near-term.  

This isn't a disaster imo with lots more twists and turns.  One thing I think some 'anticipated' real deep cold is building to NE.

BFTP

Edited December 31, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Hotspur62]

It is like groundhog day with High sinking SE into Europe.We are back to square one again !!.Been a disappointing last 24/36 hrs from a cold/snow perspective and although not all hope lost certainly chances of a cold spell commencing 8-10 days time not as High now.Still some nice frosts and winters sun so not all doom and gloom.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[There's a storm a coming]

Looks like the GFS 12z is trying to move back towards the ecm at around 144hrs - 168 hrs but it wants to strengthen the northern arm of the jet stream which eventually pushes the high pressure block over us and into Europe flooding southern and southeastern Europe with very cold air. But that is some large high pressure block....you never know it could stay further north and "bobs your uncle"

tasac

[radiohead]

12Z GFS FI showing a possible wet/windy weather spell here as cold air sits over Eastern Europe.

 

12Z GEM. Very poor looking.

Can the ECM pull a rabbit out of the hat later?

[IDO]

Certainly the GFS op in line with the 06z op, so the milder op of the 06z was probably the trend setter rather than out of kilt:

 GEM 

This flattening of the pattern had been signposted on the GEFS since that Azores trough phasing got into higher resolution; it was a true shortwave spoiler, killing the pattern, and TBH I see no room for reprise in the medium term. GEM has followed suite and the UKMO looks like going that way. Fully expect ECM to move towards this. What causes it is probably the lack of sharpness of the Pacific high/ridge; it acts as a conveyor belt to drag the PV towards NE Canada:

D4  D9

Then the Pacific ridge declines (D9). So when the music has stopped we are back into the Nov/Dec pattern of the Azores being the driver for the UK, and disconcertingly another run that wants to pump the Canadian vortex into its annual home, which we know when the next Pacific Ridge occurs will be of no use for the UK. This will certainly be two weeks of wasted opportunity if cold/snow is your thing...

[Stozzy]

What a turn around , however the meto still think a north / north easterly next weekend . We shall see