Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[mulzy]

Just now, weatherguy said:

192 is looking interesting...maybe get some Scieceland heights/potential easterly further down the line? 

Indeed - day 10 is close to an easterly (of sorts).

[Spikey M]

History teaches us (well, in my very limited experience) That the UKMO usually wins out in these situations.

Swing and a miss again?

[chionomaniac]

If we can't have a Greenland high, let's go for a Scandi one instead.....

[Catacol]

18 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Uk not on board so whatever the rest of the GFS run shows is for fun only.

All eyes on the ECM and hope it doesnt go the same way as the UKM.

I think you need to look at the hemispheric chart. UK at 144 is very interesting indeed. Look further west....

Have seen enough already to see that that medium range general direction is still on course. As ever we need a bit of luck to get everything exactly right... but the second surge of heights is on course and there is undercut potential on both GFS and UKMO still. On to the ECM later.

Teleconnections have taken an interesting turn as well today... more later again.

Edited December 29, 2016 by Catacol

[blizzard81]

16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO still misbehaving with that Azores low. Not saying we can't still get a cold pattern from there but it would be delayed and leave more room for further issues.

We really need it to get on board tomorrow and for ECM to keep the faith.

Yes, the ukmo really concerns me. It really is an awful run and very hard to see a way forward to prolonged cold from the 144hr chart. Although Steve M mentioned earlier that the 00z 168hr chart was good and the 12z run is similar. Ecm is in a way very crucial tonight imo.

[Hotspur62]

The 12z GFS i think looks like a toppler to me compared to the 6z which was quite an amazing "once in a lifetime run" but as others have said anything past T120 really is FI.Would still be a massive improvement on last 3 winters for Southerners if 12z came off lol!

[bluearmy]

The amplification on this run is far more plausible than the previous run. That's taking into account the other output. If we manage to squeeze an effective undercut on this operational then i suspect many of the less interested will become so. 

[karlos1983]

I think anyone hoping to see a repeat of the 06z GFS is setting themselves up for disappointment. As long as it isn't a big shift to mild then I'm happy. Things look set to turn cold from Sunday and a surprise or 2 out of the first cold spell will probably crop up. 

[West is Best]

Another superb GFS run in reliable timeframe. Simply superb with penetrative cold uppers.

The UKMO 12z sees the high topple and sink south, but that's not supported by their own fax charts. Generally I would stick to UKMO fax charts over their models.

 

 

[chionomaniac]

Just now, Catacol said:

I think you need to look at the hemispheric chart. UK at 144 is very interesting indeed. Look further west....

I agree. I still see a fair bit of potential in that chart across Eastern NA

[Weathizard]

And so the bed wetting begins  The GFS has broadly the same pattern, stop worrying about the exact details that are 8 days away.

Nothing has changed, the UKMO led us up the garden path the other day with peachy charts and it's now off on one again in comparison to the other top models.

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Certainly a lower amplitude on the high

 

@192 there maybe just enough to still get the undercut-

poor UKMO again is worrying...

Yeah the Easterly is definitely on 2nd week of Jan (even if not this run) so long as we get through the first phase of backing the pattern West and lowering heights NW/Central Europe

[West is Best]

1 hour ago, Spikey M said:

History teaches us (well, in my very limited experience) That the UKMO usually wins out in these situations.

Swing and a miss again?

Well see my comment about UKMO fax charts ...

Don't be selective.

Edited December 29, 2016 by Paul

[Ali1977]

I'm still hoping the ENS are as good as the last run, the Op still looks good and could easily improve again on the pub run...interesting ENS and ECM coming. UKMO could be good by 200 ish looking at 144

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Certainly a lower amplitude on the high

 

@192 there maybe just enough to still get the undercut-

poor UKMO again is worrying...

Hi Steve, 

Do you think the Hp cell on UKMO at 72,to 96hrs sinks South East to quickly! 

 

Doesn't look right to me! Ps hope I am not wrong. 

Edited December 29, 2016 by snowice

[Hanny]

2 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

History teaches us (well, in my very limited experience) That the UKMO usually wins out in these situations.

Swing and a miss again?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I was under the impression that the UKMO is typically the last to agree and that the ECM is the key to confirming trends?

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yes, the ukmo really concerns me. It really is an awful run and very hard to see a way forward to prolonged cold from the 144hr chart. Although Steve M mentioned earlier that the 00z 168hr chart was good and the 12z run is similar. Ecm is in a way very crucial tonight imo.

I tapped the wrong timeframe on UKMO 00z - the 168 was poor- sorry 

GFS still a stonking run - just enough of a wedge & plenty of snow about

 

 

 

[mountain shadow]

14 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

Why do we have to discount the GFS just because UKMO is showing something different?

Im not saying discount it, but the UKMO is the 2nd best model, GFS the 3rd.

Therefore it is statisically more probable the UKMO will be nearer the mark. Further, it also reflects, in my opinion the lack of support for a proper Greenland high in the next ten days from the teleconnections.

[booferking]

Might get Easterly out of this one yet pretty happy with the run so far.

[jvenge]

Just now, Hanny said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I was under the impression that the UKMO is typically the last to agree and that the ECM is the key to confirming trends?

Eh. Some really weird comments here. From the UKMO is not onboard, so it's all FI, so the UKMO is not good at this range, to ignore the UKMO, fax charts, etc etc. It's model output, no matter what it shows.

UKMO regularly takes second place, behind the ECM and the GFS is usually 3rd. That doesn't mean either 3 have called it right or any of them even. 

[Catacol]

3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I agree. I still see a fair bit of potential in that chart across Eastern NA

Yep. With amplification still the name of the game I can only see one direction for the wedge of heights over NE Canada to go, with resultant squeeze southwards of low pressure systems. Still a good run.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS at day 8 is fine

The initial arctic blast is still there, and there is potential as the main low sinks deeper into Europe that we could get the high to topple over the top. The UKMO is a pain in respect that we will be waiting longer for another attempt to retrograde the high back westwards. Things continue to look promising but that Azores low is going to cause a lot of drama as the models will really struggle for consistency over an unusual set up like that.

Day 5 charts

      

Different ideas from the 3 models about how those low heights move around near the Azores, compound that with the usual schenanigans over the Arctic then you end up with a lot of uncertainty and big swings between each suite.

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yes, the ukmo really concerns me. It really is an awful run and very hard to see a way forward to prolonged cold from the 144hr chart. Although Steve M mentioned earlier that the 00z 168hr chart was good and the 12z run is similar. Ecm is in a way very crucial tonight imo.

 

HUGE BEASTERLY AT 288 !

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Spikey M]

Just now, Hanny said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I was under the impression that the UKMO is typically the last to agree and that the ECM is the key to confirming trends?

I'm a Newbie to this stuff and I'm basing it purely on what I've witnessed with past failed cold spells. Of them it was usually the UKMO that said 'no' and low and behold...

I'm more than happy to bow to greater knowledge, mind. Not least because I really, really want the UKMO to be wrong.

[Banbury]

Lovely run again