Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[daz_4]

At least it is a good FI for strat 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

If meto don't back down with there north easterly next weekend and wintery outlook we could see change later on 12z 

Judging by Ian's tweets this morning though Abbie, a NE source looks unlikely to them. We shall see. Convinced that run from the GFS is an outlier anyway. Just completely against anything we have seen lately after D6/7

[Paul]

Since it would appear that due to the 6z GFS we could be facing up to 6 hours of moaning, please can that be done in the moans thread and not this one.

 

[karyo]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

At least it is a good FI for strat 

It is interesting that the most promising stratospheric chart (in a while) gives us such an uninspiring tropospheric outlook.

[Pembroke Dangler]

The dartboard low returns in low res gfs knows how to throw a New Year's Eve party fair doos to it 

[stewfox]

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,

Courage to change the things I can,

And wisdom to know the difference.

GfS 6z 31/12 run for  9am 10 Jan

GFS 6z 29/12 run for 9am 10 Jan

Edited December 31, 2016 by stewfox

[blizzard81]

Tamara's post from yesterday is ringing loud in my ears after seeing that 06z run. Starting pistol not to be fired for another 2 weeks - I quote.

[karlos1983]

Control much more amplified than the op. Will be better for sure.

+96 = welcome to fl imo

But then that's not exactly hard is it

Edited December 31, 2016 by karlos1983

[MR EXTREMES]

ive seen more garden paths than b&q.

but anyway id like to wish you all a happy new year and perhaps tomorrow were have more flips than a trampoline.

my take on it all has to be some kind of vortex come back.

and i just get feeling that there are hints that heights are trying to get into scandi but of coarse all this fi.

well im not wishing the west qbo a happy new year it can stuff it.

and i will wish the vortex happy new year when its over our side.

anyway the gfs/p is better than the control 

[Methuselah]

An interesting though frustrating run, I think??

From a purely meteorological perspective, it's almost as if the entire NH has reached an impasse, from which it might never escape; from the other angle - of one who enjoys looking out the window - a set of blackout curtains might be a wise investment? 

On a more positive note, however - both Sydney's assets and lassie's gerbil will be sighing with relief...

Oh, and lest we forget: the muppets at the dear old Daily Express have gone and done it again!

Roll on the 12Z!

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Dennis said:

I could give a little try : WAFz or poleward heat flux will be much stronger later after 9 Jan - its how to poss impact the Polar Vortex ; so then the PV could going weaker and also gives a split later in Jan 

 

That could result in more cold (maybe Western Europe too)

 

Yes. Flux charts have been posted already as the signal appeared a few days ago. Needs to be poleward to impact the vortex... but at present there is a growing signal for a split in the trop vortex at pretty much the perfect time to maximise the current signal for higher lay blocking in our sector. 

All the signs are good. We just need a bit of luck to get the block orientated correctly. Week 2 January still our jumping off point.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Catacol

[bluearmy]

Love the 'bi polar' nature of this thread - in both directions!

Nothing has changed in the 8/15 day timeframe

where will the ridge set up ??

EDIT: that's the 12z para mr extreme - the 18z and 00z appear to have given up re the Azores low!

Edited December 31, 2016 by bluearmy

[johnholmes]

from ba

Love the 'bi polar' nature of this thread - in both directions!

That really does sum this thread up I think.

[Luke Attwood]

 Wow the 6z control is looking good!

[Ali1977]

GFS a big outlier, ENS mean for next Sat says Northerly still on.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Ali1977

[Weathizard]

Good news is the mean and the control do not support the OP - can't look at the individual ENS but that makes it look like a possible outlier/extreme solution.

That being said it cannot be ignored given its broadly similar to the UKMO solution.

[knocker]

A fair representation of the expected pattern at 100mb

[karlos1983]

Actually I think "bi polar" describes the weather better than this thread or its members. We just go up and down with it. Totally normal if you ask me when reactive to nwp models, which change in the GFS case, 4 times a day! Unhealthy would be a better way to discribe this forum, much like alcohol, but try going  week without either....

control looks much better....this time 

Edited December 31, 2016 by karlos1983

[ITSY]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Good news is the mean and the control do not support the OP - can't look at the individual ENS but that makes it look like a possible outlier/extreme solution.

That being said it cannot be ignored given its broadly similar to the UKMO solution.

While that is good news, history teaches me to listen to UKMO when it comes to a hesitant cold spell...

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS a big outlier, ENS mean for next Sat days Northerly still on.

That chart is not the 06z suit?? I believe that is 12z suits and the northerly is not as pronounced on 06z suit its slowly fading away.

Edited December 31, 2016 by booferking

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

 Wow the 6z control is looking good!

Does that mean that the op and control have exchanged places, within the mass of entangled chaos that exists, past about T+144? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think it has already become clear that deep cold for near term is off the table, timing was always a concern.  It isn't over just lots more shuffling ahead.  Landing point for main thrust is still midmonth on imo and anything before....then great.  This isn't to say 6z is right, but the great set ups we saw for near term are still the pattern I believe will build and occur later.  

Fascinating thus far, pulling and pushing everyone's thoughts

 

BFTP

[radiohead]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Good news is the mean and the control do not support the OP - can't look at the individual ENS but that makes it look like a possible outlier/extreme solution.

That being said it cannot be ignored given its broadly similar to the UKMO solution.

About 5 of 20 ENS members show a northerly next Saturday.

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS a big outlier, ENS mean for next Sat days Northerly still on.

Neither the control or mean support the northerly; a big shift towards the op but not as progressive:

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Nothing has changed in the 8/15 day timeframe

where will the ridge set up ??

Spot on - where indeed? Mainstream model interpretation of the MJO signal still looks off to me... and with frictional torques increasing as I type I don't think some of the op runs have the right handle on the strength of the second surge of heights. I'm unsure where on the west/east line it will set up but I think it will be high lat enough to tweak our interest.

just in terms of timing - what Tamara posted last night and others have been saying too all tie together. The next 7 days is really pretty mundane stuff - the signals gather strength from next weekend onwards. The fact that Brian Gaze has posted the same simply reinforces the point.

Patience. Don't let op runs upset the apple cart at 192 hours and up. They are rarely accurate at this range and so shouldn't upset anyone. By Tuesday the beginning of the colder evolution ought to enter the realms of moderate model accuracy and then we may begin to get a clearer picture of what is going to transpire. I think January 2017 is full of positive intrigue. No guarantee that snow will fall, but we are going to have decent chances of it.