Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[radiohead]

Really disappointing how things have changed since yesterday at this timeframe. Usually 96-120 is pretty reliable. 

Hopefully the run delivers something in FI, to keep spirits up.

Edited December 31, 2016 by radiohead

[IDO]

Another step towards the UKMO at D5:

 GFS 0z: 

Subtle variations but both on the same page now it seems.

[MR EXTREMES]

the north pacific ridge is monster for sure 

 

[Weathizard]

This GFS run is extremely different at even t114, I'm not sure I like where this run is going but we shall see! Until that Azores low is nailed its up in the air.

as usual on these islands, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. 

Edited December 31, 2016 by Weathizard

[radiohead]

06Z GFS today, 06Z GFS yesterday. Chalk and cheese.

[MR EXTREMES]

if things fall into place like the arrows show surely that would lead to better set up for colder.

[MR EXTREMES]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

06Z GFS today, 06Z GFS yesterday. Chalk and cheese.

scandi heights maybe or not.

i agree not classic< as vortex is look more compact>

still i dont believe its anywhere near resolved. im certainly going to hold back in future this fi chasing is getting rather tiring.

my money sticks with ukmo from now on. at least then less dissapointment.

and of coarse i will hold back on what i see from now on.

no doubt more dissapointment to come.

well at least its not mild bit more like winter than recent years.

Edited December 31, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[radiohead]

Cold heading down to the Eastern Mediterranean. Frustrating to watch... 

[Weathizard]

The slug just will not be salted! Potential for a Scandinavian high but as usual it's out of a reliable.

[Scandinavian High.]

High is trying push up to Scandinavia.

[Snowman.]

Imagine living Italy 0z

Not that bad could be a little chilly.

And the 6z

Talk about an upgrade!

[IDO]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

This GFS run is extremely different at even t114, I'm not sure I like where this run is going but we shall see! Until that Azores low is nailed its up in the air.

We know this scenario will kill the second northerly for good and also flatten the pattern in the medium term and introduce milder uppers; after D8 who knows as we have not really seen this pattern play out, but as I said yesterday IMO this is the worse case scenario from what was showing two days ago.

D7 

[Fingers]

Complete change this run, everything collapsing away southeast and flattening with no height rises anywhere. No idea where we are heading!

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Imagine living Italy 0z

Not that bad could be a little chilly.

And the 6z

Talk about an upgrade!

It just makes me fume! As usual we always seem to pull the worst possible scenario from a very good position meanwhile Greece/Italy/Turkey seem to profit!!, that being said more runs are needed as until the Azores low is nailed in the short term we can't make any assumptions.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Weathizard

[karyo]

Horrible to see the northerly for next weekend vanish completely in this run!

The serious cold goes to the east of us and much of the UK is in a southerly flow by next weekend.

[Johnp]

You have to laugh really.

Based on this run, enjoy this weekends northerly waft and then get set for normality.

I really hope this is wrong  but looks worryingly like the consistent UKMO.

[Jason M]

We often seem to see this with the models and I really noticed it last year. Ie they show height rises in Greenland locale and a screaming northerly before slowly watering it down in favour of Scandi heights. These are then also slowly removed before we see a uk high / slow sinker as the final output.

for me, it's the fact that any easterly solutions are not moving through the timescales is the big clue. Hope to be wrong but I think we're being led up that garden path again.

[radiohead]

This 06Z GFS cannot be dismissed as it has moved closer to the 0Z UKMO, and the UKMO seems to have been correct with this evolution even when it looked like being an odd man out.

 

[bradymk]

Frustrating all the chopping and changing about late next week but just the uncertainty/different solutions possible. 

Until this period is modelled correctly, their is not much point in worrying too much in what the model shows after that either. 

The 00z FI was lovely but if it was wrong at Day 6 then it doesn't really matter.

Now the 06z shows a different outcome at Day 6. So can't really trust its output after this too.

Bottom line is let's wait to see what the models do regarding late next week/weekend and if we can get any agreement soon before getting too dissapointed with anything, but mehh it isn't half frustrating trying to get a decent UK cold spell. 

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Horrible to see the northerly for next weekend vanish completely in this run!

The serious cold goes to the east of us and much of the UK is in a southerly flow by next weekend.

Difference is astounding.

[offerman]

Well wgat a ballsup those charts turned out to be over the last few days. Showing multiple cold shots, some v cold mixed in. Now just the mini not that cold shot this weekend then toppler high . No mid Atlantic link up to Greenland high.  Where did it all go so wrong AGAIN in the so called reliable time frame. Why does GFS continuously get cold weather wrong?

 

can anyone advise the best most reliable charts to follow when looking for cold because GFS  is now off my list as years it has done this. It's fine for wind and rain or summer high predictions lol but winter it falls apart. So any decent more reliable charts to look at would be great ,thanks. 

[karyo]

Just now, SN0WM4N said:

Difference is astounding.

Indeed and it is not as if we are looking at deep FI charts!

As for the easterly in deep FI, I have no confidence in it as I can't remember a case when an easterly was shown at 300+ hours that materialised in reality.

[daz_4]

It is impossible to get rid of that HP over Europe. Impossible. 

Two days ago vs. today. Same old.

[shaky]

I just cant believe it!!we had ensembles and the control/op runs nearly at 100%agreement for a greenland high and then it goes tits up AGAIN!!!!!in my honest opinion i really think we should now look east between 72 and 120 hours and see if we can get that high thats in the atlantic further north and west more around iceland!!we may then see a sudden easterly develop out of nowhere!!if you take a look at the arpege 00z run and the gfs 06z run you can see that its trying to develop a scandi high around 114 hours but then collapses!!huge 12z runs this evening!!

[IDO]

We knew that GFS 06z of two days ago would be downgraded, but this is a complete about turn:

NowThen

I don't think the turnaround could have been worse!