Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[tight isobar]

Tbf.. the op's are quite blocky throughout But

Id be sticking firmly with ens against there suites atm.

And still awaiting more solid cross

. agree..which will hohopefully be v-soon!?

[keithlucky]

9 hours ago, keithlucky said:

Further forecast from Joe B major Arctic outbreak across Europe from the 6th to the 15thAnd then a further sustained cold spell.to continue. after.

Further weather warnings from Joe B OK STILL 11 days away( varing a day9to 11) but here is snow amount  predictions in inches) cropped from weather bell daily update Quote from J B

Bastardi warns:

This is going to be a huge deal. You’re going to see the weather in Europe making global headlines as it gets covered with tremendous amounts of snow. And when you look at this […] Europe is brutally cold […] and Europe, get ready because there’s going to be all sorts of you know what is going to break loose over there.”

-

[Man With Beard]

They haven't all followed the UKMO...

...but on the whole Steve Murr clearly made a better call than I did a couple of hours ago.

Have we really seen the final solution on this, though?

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO at t168

Looks wet for most maybe the high will back west and bring in a north westerly for the weekend? certainly don't see a north easterly for next weekend as per the beebs LRF tonight

Edited December 30, 2016 by Summer Sun

[JOPRO]

Well the search for winter snow goes on, i think for us cold/snow lovers in here I would like to tweak a famous quote from Hemmingway '

"There is no hunting like the hunting for snow, and those who have hunted snow long enough and liked it, never care for anything else thereafter" 

Does this apply to any other winter model watchers in here is it just me?

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO at t168

Looks wet for most maybe the high will back west and bring in a north westerly for the weekend? certainly don't see a north easterly for next weekend as per the beebs LRF tonight

At times like this, I wish there was an unlike button. No offence Summer Sun lol.

[Captain Shortwave]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

They haven't all followed the UKMO...

...but on the whole Steve Murr clearly made a better call than I did a couple of hours ago.

Have we really seen the final solution on this, though?

 

I get the feeling we haven't on this one. Also whilst one door may close, we may find another door to cold open quite quickly, the easterly solution despite the change early on seems to be a common end-game for the model output at the moment with good support from various sources. It is intriguing to see the ECM almost replicated its output from yesterday in the 7-10 day range whilst being quite different early on. 

At this moment whilst the ECM/GFS have a broad agreement, a bit more weight should be given to the UKMO than usual given it's consistency over the past few runs. That said if seems to offer the potential to bring in an easterly solution earlier than the GFS/ECM which is a good thing considering we don't need the extra time to bottle up the cold to our north east as it will be in place and well entrenched by the 2nd/3rd of January.

A lot of mileage in this, I do see the easterly solutions as being very plausible, though of course there does seem to be the feeling of all routes to a UK high regarding the winter so far.

@Gavin - Someone needs to move the map about 500 miles eastwards so we can see the block to our east/north east in its full glory.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO at t168

Looks wet for most maybe the high will back west and bring in a north westerly for the weekend? certainly don't see a north easterly for next weekend as per the beebs LRF tonight

From what I can see there, there seems to be a fairly strong jet in the north Atlantic so not promising.

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO at t168

Looks wet for most maybe the high will back west and bring in a north westerly for the weekend? certainly don't see a north easterly for next weekend as per the beebs LRF tonight

 I didn't see the LRF but if they are punting for a NEly next weekend then their own "better" models may not be following the 12zs and ECM evening run - or filmed prior to these anyway. Shame we don't get the info anymore from IanF.

[LRD]

7 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I get the feeling we haven't on this one. Also whilst one door may close, we may find another door to cold open quite quickly, the easterly solution despite the change early on seems to be a common end-game for the model output at the moment with good support from various sources. It is intriguing to see the ECM almost replicated its output from yesterday in the 7-10 day range whilst being quite different early on. 

At this moment whilst the ECM/GFS have a broad agreement, a bit more weight should be given to the UKMO than usual given it's consistency over the past few runs. That said if seems to offer the potential to bring in an easterly solution earlier than the GFS/ECM which is a good thing considering we don't need the extra time to bottle up the cold to our north east as it will be in place and well entrenched by the 2nd/3rd of January.

A lot of mileage in this, I do see the easterly solutions as being very plausible, though of course there does seem to be the feeling of all routes to a UK high regarding the winter so far.

@Gavin - Someone needs to move the map about 500 miles eastwards so we can see the block to our east/north east in its full glory.

That's the point I was trying (badly) to make about the UKMO. Its consistency is impressive (presuming it is proved right, of course!). The other models have either gone down the wrong road (maybe) or have flipped between solutions (although the ECM hasn't chopped and changed an awful lot either).

Edited December 30, 2016 by LRD

[booferking]

To me were it fails is the low beside portugal & Spain we need it to maintain its position as long as possible  to allow the high to not sink but to link with the high racing up eastern seaboard, if we dont maintain low heights close to spain then it goes tits up.

Ref below compare 06z to 12z

I have been watching this closely and this is the main spoiler the low then moves north to join the low coming out of Greenland.

So we still have a chance its knive edge stuff.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

 

@Gavin - Someone needs to move the map about 500 miles eastwards so we can see the block to our east/north east in its full glory.

Indeed. You wouldn't think it was the UK model would you? Seems more interested in the US. The UK hardly makes it into the map - ridiculous!

[Scandinavian High.]

Meto are going north easterlys next weekend I did not see that in the models this evening or am I totally wrong.

[Boro Snow]

JMA still has a decent 2nd northerly around the 6/7th of January

[Frank Trough]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

 I didn't see the LRF but if they are punting for a NEly next weekend then their own "better" models may not be following the 12zs and ECM evening run - or filmed prior to these anyway. Shame we don't get the info anymore from IanF.

I honestly think they might be playing catch up. I can still see a dry, frosty spell developing which won't be anything other than quite enjoyable. It's been quite seasonal even here the last few days. I guess we might end up with a NE surface feed?

At some point we are going to pay for this dry weather...wet westerly february? The westerlies will return.

 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Meto are going north easterlys next weekend I did not see that in the models this evening or am I totally wrong.

Just seen the long range BBC, yes they are saying cold north easterlies next weekend but today's models moved away slightly from that - maybe they filmed it before the backtrack from ECM and GFS - or maybe their models are still with the 00z and 06z

edit - I say backtrack , plenty of GEFS stuck to the very cold runs, maybe the EPS will too.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Ali1977

[Frank Trough]

19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

They haven't all followed the UKMO...

...but on the whole Steve Murr clearly made a better call than I did a couple of hours ago.

Have we really seen the final solution on this, though?

 

No, but "direction of travel" i think is important.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

Meto are going north easterlys next weekend I did not see that in the models this evening or am I totally wrong.

This often happens with the beeb forecasts - often behind the ball. Forecasts based on old data. Old as in maybe only 12 hours old but pretty crucial in these instances. We see this every year and in my opinion it needs to be addressed.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Meto are going north easterlys next weekend I did not see that in the models this evening or am I totally wrong.

I'm guessing that that's largely due to the fact that, although models can, and do, jump from one solution another, in a nanosecond, the actual weather doesn't change course at all - it just evolves, rolls out as it were...

[Seasonality]

23 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Further weather warnings from Joe B OK STILL 11 days away( varing a day9to 11) but here is snow amount  predictions in inches) cropped from weather bell daily update Quote from J B

Bastardi warns:

This is going to be a huge deal. You’re going to see the weather in Europe making global headlines as it gets covered with tremendous amounts of snow. And when you look at this […] Europe is brutally cold […] and Europe, get ready because there’s going to be all sorts of you know what is going to break loose over there.”

-

Hi keith, to be fair Big Joe is a quite excitable chap Speaking for my part of Europe it could be a notable cold spell but not all hell breaking loose and not record breaking. Not yet anyway...

[Paul_1978]

Has anyone posted this over the last few pages? AO runs look great to me unless I'm missing something?

[Daniel*]

25 minutes ago, swilliam said:

The ECM 240 verifies about 40% of the time according to the official statistics. Can't remember the number for GFS but less than this. As for 384 probably about 0-1% but have seen any statistics.

Well, that goes completely out the window when something unconventional is being shown ie. not long drawn southwesterlies, we're proably looking at 4% at best. The MetO outlook all but cemented our misfortune  

'A colder north to north-easterly is likely to become established from Friday onwards, with frequent wintry showers.." Then comes along the UKMO resolute, the GFS hops on board and now the ECM. It is looking highly unlikely for it to have been a bad day at the office. Our much touted N'ly for next weekend seems to be in precarious ground, contradictory to the GEFS which are 70/30 on a northerly. Not the end of the world it may have only been an appetiser, very uncertain outlook, one thing I'm confident on it will be cold but fingers crossed it isn't the anticyclonic kind with blocking slap bang over the UK, I think we're all getting sick to death of it! 

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

Has anyone posted this over the last few pages? AO runs look great to me unless I'm missing something?

Yes, it was posted a few pages back. Neg AO is irrelevant unless we get a neg NAO too.

[stewfox]

So reviewing the last 24hr

Yesterday evening inc pub run

Pub was in locked down during afternoon as stella was 6p a pint (GFS 6z stella run) most went home by 9pm after 12z and 18z.

A slight downgrade on the GEFS mean, sharper ridging on 12z compared to 18z.

Minority of members leaning more toward UKMO - about 65% for strong ridge/Northerly and another 15% for flatter ridge and Northerly.

GFS and ECM on same page v UKMO on another.

Morning

UKMO still phasing that closed low with the trough and still awful. (w******* UKMO doesn’t want to join party) GEM not much better, (what is that Tibet model saying ?) we need cross model agreement.

GFS or UKMO is going to be left with a serious amount of egg on its face.

GFS 0z and ECM 0z looks fine but the UKMO where for art thou get on board don’t be a party pooper,

Folks post some nice GFS FI charts

But UKMO gets more mentions then Santa at Christmas over next 3 pages,

Afternoon

GFS 6Z ends up with the mother of all Scandi highs that extends right into Siberia

Significant differences within the reliable timeframe (T96) between UKMO and GFS/ECM,

Before UKMO 12z , look at GFS 12z which shows a shift to UKMO solution with the ridge sliping south

UKMO party popper not changing 2nd northerly going down the pan ? (7/1)

Evening

High model entropy at present, gfs wearing different flip flops each 6hr run,

Has the UKMO  called it correctly (if it happens) and the low is too far out into the Azores allowing the heights to drop.

All eyes on the ECM will that flip to the UKMO idea or stick to its guns. If the UKMO could amplify a bit more could we get a scandi high (Greenland high has left the building)

Huge scatter on GEFS ens post 7/1

ECM run 12z is awaited more GFSs charts posted (lots of blue showing)

ECM half way house toward UKMO but wait does it hold hands then go and puts a north-westerly in the picture at T168

But it still looks to sink the high but NAVGEM shows second northerly not totally gone.

Cold 4/10 Hard to summarise today there have been down grades but  a lot of potential on offer and no winters over posts or bartlett mentioned. That swear word '""southwesterlie"" did' get mentioned but not often,

Day 10 quoted “”””we are getting them heading into January and not November or April! Perfect timing for once heading into the heart of Winter, so better chances for snow for everyone when the cold does arrive””

29/12 6z 12/1 (The stella run) has now gone so maybe still a 4am lamp post watching winter who knows ? More Stella required but happy if some water added.

 

Stella run 6p a pint

Edited December 30, 2016 by stewfox

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Old data, before tonights runs. Will be gone by next update replaced by UK high cold.

I don't know the nature of MetO's forecast of NE winds (was this on the TV?) but I doubt they would look at one suite of model runs and confidently proclaim that it's going to pan out in a particular way, especially with the low confidence expressed in their written updates and the inconsistency of some modelling. Maybe they presented that as only one option of many? Unless their in-house models (are they the MOGREPS and DECIDER models) are showing something we're not privy to? I wish Ian still felt free to post in here

Sorry mods - I know this is veering a little off-topic but it is kind of model-related too