Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[gottolovethisweather]

20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM going for south westerlies at t144

 

 

 

Which means moist-laden weather fronts drenching us all, er no. Frosty and dry and potentially mild but still cold by night where skies clear. Southwesterlies aren't welcomed by many in here and welcomed by a tiny majority at that, but to be clear, the Atlantic is NOT breaking through and it WILL remain largely dry IF these charts verify.  Don't all scream at once.  It's not as dreadful as it sounds yet it could be better for those wanting cold wintry weather.

 

Nothing wrong with the posting in general as it's highlighting what the models suggest but Summer Sun does miss a trick in being a bit more descriptive. 

EDIT: Summer Sun's update to his post above should now read winds backed towards the west by the 6th (one day later) and if I were to preempt the ECM here, backed NW to NE by the 8th, lol. 

Edited December 30, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[joggs]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Ecm 12z  is good run for cold mid term......if you live in Orkney/Shetland isles....!!!!!

Can't believe how much the high sinks.

[Evening thunder]

3 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

ECMWF is drunk..way overdoing it.

24 hours later

Looks reasonable to me and quite common in that area

[Snowman.]

ECM and GFS

ECM GFS

[Summer Sun]

The high still too close so for most dry and cold with some wintry showers mainly down the east coast

[tight isobar]

sadly for myself and others the ecm at present looking more than feafeasible in its evolution. .much more aligned/controlled in its evolvement!!!

see what the final frames decipher! !!!

Edited December 30, 2016 by tight isobar

[Rocheydub]

1 hour ago, SN0WM4N said:

Didn't see anyone posting that when the above was up for grabs. 

Just because it wasn't posted, doesn't make it less true.  850's any more than 3/4 days away often change wildly.

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM and GFS

ECM GFS

Yes very interesting that they moved to this new solution together. Perhaps UKMO will take one step toward this tomorrow and it is close to the reality of what we will see?

Plenty of wiggle room still. It is amazing how hard it is to get cold upper air across the UK even when it looks odds on, there is always a spoiler lurking it seems. Still, there is always FI to look forward to again assuming this is close.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[JOPRO]

That ecm upgrade was a waste of money! Still no better at calling uk cold spells!!. To be fair to the UKMO plays it safe by only going out to 144hrs. Hence it seems to have a better handle on events in out little part of the world. GFS and ECM do themselves no favours going out as far as they do as how often does a 240hr or 384hr chart Verify?

 

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes very interesting that they moved to this new solution together. Perhaps UKMO will take one step toward this tomorrow and it close to the reality pf what we will see?

Plenty of wiggle room still. It is amazing how hard it is to get cold air across the UK even when it looks odds on, there is always a spoiler lurking it seems. Still, there is always FI to look forward to again assuming this is close.

If anything it looks a lot like yesterdays 12z

216 aswell

ECMGFS

Not too shabby

Edited December 30, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Summer Sun]

The beeb favour north or north easterly winds next weekend with some wintry showers ECM has the high edging in plenty of changes to come over the weekend and into next week without doubt

Edited December 30, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, JOPRO said:

That ecm upgrade was a waste of money! Still no better at calling uk cold spells!!. To be fair to the UKMO plays it safe by only going out to 144hrs. Hence it seems to have a better handle on events in out little part of the world. GFS and ECM do themselves no favours going out as far as they do as how often does a 240hr or 384hr chart Verify?

 

I don't think the accuracy of the model is determined by how far out they go, doesn't make much sense?

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

If anything it looks a lot like yesterdays 12z

Yes very similar but we were a bit disappointed with that as well other than FI potential. 

Really thought this mornings 00z runs were moving toward something better,  again it is about expectations I guess.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Mucka

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

That ecm upgrade was a waste of money! Still no better at calling uk cold spells!!. To be fair to the UKMO plays it safe by only going out to 144hrs. Hence it seems to have a better handle on events in out little part of the world. GFS and ECM do themselves no favours going out as far as they do as how often does a 240hr or 384hr chart Verify?

 

The UKMO goes out further, its just we only see to 144.

[JBMWeatherForever]

The models are just continuing to play around with the cold synoptical outcome that we will eventually have, that's what the models do. Fully expect some epic runs for cold in the next few days - from the east.  Don't go betting on any southwesterlies this January !

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Looks reasonable to me and quite common in that area

Perhaps, I don't know looks a bit suspect. Well, you have to give it to UKMO. I've been highly impressed with ECM since the update in that timeframe, the first notable wobble.

[Purga]

Still looks like setting up for a good easterly IMO

Notice the UK high ridging across the top to the SH

[JOPRO]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I don't think the accuracy of the model is determined by how far out they go, doesn't make much sense?

What I meant was if you only go out to 144hrs you tend to do away with the 'garden path' situations we find oursleves in when looking at long range outputs for cold in winter or hot in summer. 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, JOPRO said:

That ecm upgrade was a waste of money! Still no better at calling uk cold spells!!. To be fair to the UKMO plays it safe by only going out to 144hrs. Hence it seems to have a better handle on events in out little part of the world. GFS and ECM do themselves no favours going out as far as they do as how often does a 240hr or 384hr chart Verify?

 

Here we go again. Another 'why waste money investing in models when they always get it wrong?' type comment. A lot of which we've had this winter becasue people set too much stall in individual op runs and then wind up disappointed. ECM has never really showed freezing cold but has shown building blocks to that. The ECM, for me, has actually been really good this winter

[booferking]

Day 9 chart is full of potential but to be honest we are chasing again would rather the quicker route we have been here quite a few times before.

Edited December 30, 2016 by booferking

[pyrotech]

For every run there will be less pleasing charts for some

A better way to read the charts is to save runs in fi from a time frame like 06z 12z or 18z and compare yesterdays 12z with todays etc. Gives a more accurate idea of model movements in trend.

However i do like to give a positive image and so here is my anomaly chart of the day

[Dean E]

Not sure why people are writing it off just after a few model runs? That's why we have models and different runs, so every option can be shown and valued!

To see charts like this in the depths of Winter, especially after the last few winters, is enough for me to be optimistic! 

GFS 12z +144

[swilliam]

6 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

That ecm upgrade was a waste of money! Still no better at calling uk cold spells!!. To be fair to the UKMO plays it safe by only going out to 144hrs. Hence it seems to have a better handle on events in out little part of the world. GFS and ECM do themselves no favours going out as far as they do as how often does a 240hr or 384hr chart Verify?

 

The ECM 240 verifies about 40% of the time according to the official statistics. Can't remember the number for GFS but less than this. As for 384 probably about 0-1% but have seen any statistics.

[Nouska]

2 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

What I meant was if you only go out to 144hrs you tend to do away with the 'garden path' situations we find oursleves in when looking at long range outputs for cold in winter or hot in summer. 

You could always not click on anything beyond 144 if it troubles you so much - the garden path need not be trodden on, stick to the greener grass.

[Summer Sun]

Continuing dry and cold for many maybe milder for Ireland but surface cold remains for most of the UK

 

Edited December 30, 2016 by Summer Sun