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Polar Maritime

Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That's still a very very cold set. 

I fully expect the ECM to be similar to ours 00Z run at least until T168. It's just a rogue GFS run. It's allowed one or two??

 

So basically we're still on course?

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ECM falls into line with UKMO at 120.

UKMO makes a habit of calling these situations correctly, has done for years.

Edited by SxK
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We are still in a journey, where that journey is we don't yet know. 

 

The 12z models have basically just said that beyond t96 is still uncertain 

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1 minute ago, SxK said:

ECM falls into line with UKMO at 120. 

At least we can now get an idea where thr UKMO might have gone after the failed Northerly.

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Not often you see ecm shift that much at day 5

fascinating stuff !

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Based on my analyses of the various ensembles I've seen posted up on here, I'd suggest the period from January 1st (albeit later in the day down south) through January 3rd will be cold/very cold, when compared to the norm. During this period, there are chances of temporary snow accumulations almost anywhere, especially in the prone areas exposed to the N and NE winds. By the 4th January it will warm up once again (still frosty by night where cloud breaks) as a period of HP cell domination should return, so overall a dry picture by then. Come the second week of January; it is possible that polar air streams will again envelop the UK, but as this is still some time away, I'll revisit that particular prediction early next week. :friends:

 

EDIT: If tonight's ECM is correct, the window for wintry precipitation will be short-lived, from 1st through to the 2nd only. UKMO Fax charts outputs and local media forecasts will provide best guidance on this aspect.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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I think i will wait until the 00zs to make a judgement on the Azores low scenario.

ECM definitely "filling the gap" ala UKMO, though not as progressive.

 

ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

What happens after we'll have to wait and see.

Edited by chris55

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Not often you see ecm shift that much at day 5

fascinating stuff !

Charts with quote?

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36 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If you were to just look at the ensembles having not seen the op, what would you say? Look cold to me. Usual scatter in low res.

 

IMG_5054.GIF

Quite possible that successive op-runs merely occupy a different place in the pack, and does not necessarily mean that the run overall was significantly warmer than its predecessor?

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12Z

80% chance of Cumbrian ppn at 1200ft - will be interesting over Kirkstone Pass on New Years Day :D reliable.

METO CUMBRIA

Saturday 31st December

Generally cloudy with outbreaks of rain and drizzle, more especially across western and southern Fells, with the best chance of any brighter spells expected towards High Street and Harter Fell. More persistent rain will reach northern Fells soon after dark and spread south through the evening. The rain will become heavy at times, especially in the west, and turn increasingly to snow above about 600m towards midnight.

uksnowrisk.png

Although I was watching next Saturdays possible event from the North North Westerly has all but disappeared at +189

uksnowrisk189.png

.....only to be given promise of the "Easterly" or more continental flow at T+300 which should get this forum into a froth.

ukwind.png

uksnowrisk300.png

500 SLP cant see where all the moisture is to come from for that above amount of ppn not a potent Azores LP? if it is one? with"dry" continental cold?

Anyone explain?

h500slp.png

 

 

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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3 minutes ago, snowice said:

It's like a few year ago the easterly that never was gfs/ecm vs UKMO! UKMO WINS AGAIN:angry:

The pattern that verifies will "win" so to speak, a few more runs needed before we can be confident. Though the UKMO option is certainly gathering momentum.

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Very impressed with the Ukmo it stuck to its guns for the last 24-36 hours and it seems the other models are following suite. 

 

That gfs 6z the other day really did no favours for the coldies in here. It was a biblical run which heightened our expectations markedly. Sadly the adjustments have been made and it's watered the cold down. 

 

At at least it's gonna be cold though 

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Don't understand the comments saying gone with the UKMO? It's more like it than this morning but it's still very different, the energy phasing in the Atlantic is more GFS like.

 

Compare the 144 charts and you tell me the ECM has followed the UKM because I don't see it.

image.gif

image.png

image.gif

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Arhhhh

the ecm at t140 is nothing like the meto at t140. 

 

IMG_0677.GIF

IMG_0678.GIF

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ECM at t168 shows north westerly winds and colder air coming back in

ECM1-168.GIF?30-0ECM0-168.GIF?30-0

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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2 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

What time are the next runs?

GFS on net-weather

The GFS global forecast model is created by the American meteorological agency NCEP (NOAA). It runs four times a day at 00.00 (00z), 06.00 (06z), 12.00 (12z) and 18.00 (18z). These runs are published on net-weather thanks to the excellent German website Wetterzentrale. Each run is published approximately 4-5 hours after the run time (so as an example the 00z runs at 00.00 and appears online at between 4am and 5am)

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Perhaps we might just have to be patient! ECM looking to set something more favourable in action at 168

ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

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ECMWF is drunk..way overdoing it.

image.jpeg

24 hours later

image.jpeg

Edited by Changing Skies
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Ecm 12z  is good run for cold mid term......if you live in Orkney/Shetland isles....!!!!!

ECM1-168-1.gif

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